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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Here's the snow thus far

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

Sorry guys I ended up getting chased around the outside of the building at work by a whacked out homeless guy on drugs...That was a first! I was mostly worried about the snot coming out of his nose as

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12 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Is it my imagination that the little fella has a faster wiggle as you scroll the post upward.  As the post first scrolls into site he is doing the regular dance but as the post gets scrolled up his excitement level of wiggle increases!!! 

Optical illusions are fun.

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Picked up about 1.3” of rain since midnight. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Local PWS averaging about 1.3" for Springfield so far.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 57F (Oct 22)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 23)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 2 (Most recent: Oct 23, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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36 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I'm just happy its starting to look like we could leave this torchy pattern behind. At least for a little while.

For sure.  It looks like this is the beginning of a much more interesting regime.  This could end up being a pretty fun month with any bit of luck at all.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Got another great fall color hike in this week before the rain started. In the Dark Divide, a rugged area north of the Lewis River, between St. Helens and Adams. 

37E44248-D38D-4F76-B6CD-DD33BB2A3337.jpeg

08796638-90A3-42F5-B9E6-83406AA0504F.jpeg

30F44997-9FFC-4443-9A0D-1911B9EF8E57.jpeg

8DBED381-801A-4024-A98F-432F12BFC359.jpeg

Mt. Adams was hazy due to lingering California wildfire smoke in the mid levels.

6FF6E877-CFB4-45DB-A56F-BE067591CF49.jpeg

 

I love those alpine areas east of the Cascade crest (at least I assume that's east of the crest).  The trees and vegetation have a very cool look to them.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The package is delivered on the ECMWF!  A nice cold clipper.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I love those alpine areas east of the Cascade crest (at least I assume that's east of the crest).  The trees and vegetation have a very cool look to them.

Surprisingly this area is actually west of the crest, on the north/south divide between the Lewis and Cowlitz River drainages. Although I do believe it sits in a semi-rain shadow, since Mt. St. Helens and the taller mountains surrounding it are to its west and probably block incoming precip to a degree.

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For sure.  It looks like this is the beginning of a much more interesting regime.  This could end up being a pretty fun month with any bit of luck at all.

Yeah, the type of regime we appear to be going into could give the very warm start a little more character in context.

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Very decent ECMWF run.  That should bring some decidedly crisp weather for us.  Straight northerly gradients settle in which is great for cold mins for many areas.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The more I look at this ECMWF run the more I like it.  The offshore block is much more solid next weekend than the two previous runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I hope this very blocky regime lasts all winter.    Short bursts of heavy rain and long dry periods with sun and northerly or offshore flow.  

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I hope this very blocky regime lasts all winter.    Short bursts of heavy rain and long dry periods with sun and northerly or offshore flow.  

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10 (2).png

Looks like some first frost possibilities in NE Oklahoma while I am there too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The Weatherbell maps spit out highs low to mid 50s next weekend for SEA and widespread lows below 40 for the lowlands Saturday and Sunday nights.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The Weatherbell maps spit out highs low to mid 50s next weekend for SEA and widespread lows below 40 for the lowlands Saturday and Sunday nights.

If this is wrong prepared for it to be pointed out A LOT.

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I hope this very blocky regime lasts all winter.    Short bursts of heavy rain and long dry periods with sun and northerly or offshore flow.  

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10 (2).png

I'm hoping for a 1936-37 type winter.  Prolonged cold, snow on the ground for weeks, but dry.  That winter was amazing in that it had so much cold, but none of the nastiness that is normally associated with winters like that such as floods, ice storms, and prolonged periods of miserable weather.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Weatherbell maps spit out highs low to mid 50s next weekend for SEA and widespread lows below 40 for the lowlands Saturday and Sunday nights.

Glad to see you using ECMWF surface details rather than the goofy WRF.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

If this is wrong prepared for it to be pointed out A LOT.

I looked at the actual highs and lows as opposed to just 12z and 0z temps.  I've made that mistake before!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Glad to see you using ECMWF surface details rather than the goofy WRF.    

I still use the WRF sometimes, but those weatherbell maps are very nice.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I still use the WRF sometimes, but those weatherbell maps are very nice.

Definitely... you will not be misled nearly as often if you go with the ECMWF surface details from the WB maps.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At this time of the year are we talking about ground frosts or severe air frost with air temp appropriate for such conditions?  Also would this translate to hoar frost?  Do we even get hoar frost here or does that require a special setup?

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4 minutes ago, Link said:

At this time of the year are we talking about ground frosts or severe air frost with air temp appropriate for such conditions?  Also would this translate to hoar frost?  Do we even get hoar frost here or does that require a special setup?

You serious, Clark?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

You serious, Clark?

Serious about what? What kind of frost are we likely to get out of the pattern depicted for next week? Just a slight ground/roof frost or a full heavy one where it can look like light 'fake' snow the ground?  My favorite is the latter but I'll accept the former.

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1 minute ago, Link said:

Serious about what? What kind of frost are we likely to get out of the pattern depicted for next week? Just a slight ground frost or a full heavy one where it can look like light 'fake' snow the ground?

Sounds like someone hasn’t played all the way through Frost Simulator on difficult yet.

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Snow is falling at Timberline Lodge.

How severe of a frost are we talking about for next week's Euro? Snow Whiz makes it sound like a hard frost both air and ground AKA: Killing freeze but it seems rather early.

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm hoping for a 1936-37 type winter.  Prolonged cold, snow on the ground for weeks, but dry.  That winter was amazing in that it had so much cold, but none of the nastiness that is normally associated with winters like that such as floods, ice storms, and prolonged periods of miserable weather.

You mean all the exciting stuff 😏 

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Just now, Jesse said:

Sounds like someone hasn’t played all the way through Frost Simulator on difficult yet.

Look. I just want to know how severe of a frost we are talking about for next week. Is it the bring your plants in and we're done kind or just a slight ground frost? Would it even be enough to create a layer on the ground?  I never experienced a 'chilly' October except 2003 and it was too 'dry' for any actual  frost.

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2 minutes ago, Link said:

Look. I just want to know how severe of a frost we are talking about for next week. Is it the bring your plants in and we're done kind or just a slight ground frost? Would it even be enough to create a layer on the ground?  I never experienced a 'chilly' October except 2003 and it was too 'dry' for any actual  frost.

You lived here last year right? 

The models are just now latching onto this thing, so any bets on the details of a frost, if any, would be mere speculation. At face value it would probably be a light frost at best, depending on your location.

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Just now, Jesse said:

You lived here last year right?

The models are just now latching onto this thing, so any bets on the details of a frost, if any, would be mere speculation. At face value it would probably be a light frost at best, depending on your location.

Central Valley. We get cold air drainage at the right times. Already got to 39F before the fire crap happened and we went to this pattern.  How early can we have a hard white frost?  Also does an Artic Airmass provide that 'white' look or are the dew points too low because the December 2010 cold wave the grass remained green the entire time.  Unless you stepped outside there wasn't any way to know we were under a sharp cold spell.

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3 minutes ago, Link said:

Central Valley. We get cold air drainage at the right times. Already got to 39F before the fire crap happened.

Stockton or Fresno area?

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35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I hope this very blocky regime lasts all winter.    Short bursts of heavy rain and long dry periods with sun and northerly or offshore flow.  

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10 (2).png

Well, -EPO/Rockies trough/SE-ridge is typical +QBO/east-based Niña stuff. So you might be in luck on that front.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Stockton or Fresno area?

Willamette Valley.  Though Stockton can get pretty chilly too.  Look at the summer of 1955!  A lot of chilly nights thru the summer and never any real sustained hot spells.

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Most of California got pretty kold in the winter of 1936-37.

Did the central valley get any 'snow' flurries out of it? Before the turn of the century San Francisco used to semi frequently  get snow flurries and even sticking snow in the higher hills like Telegraph Hill.https://thestormking.com/Sierra_Stories/San_Francisco_Snowstorms/san_francisco_snowstorms.html#:~:text=San Francisco's all-time record,snow was 7 inches deep.

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1 minute ago, Link said:

Willamette Valley.  Though Stockton can get pretty chilly too.  Look at the summer of 1955!  A lot of chilly nights thru the summer and never any real sustained hot spells.

If you hit 39 in early September you could probably see some decent frost, assuming the pattern the models are currently showing even pans out.

Last October had a ton of frost and freezes just about everywhere so it’s not like it’s been awhile since we’ve seen this sort of thing.

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10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You mean all the exciting stuff 😏 

Floods in the dead of winter usually mean it’s torching..hard for me to derive excitement from that, but to each their own. 🤷‍♂️ 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

If you hit 39 in early September you could probably see some decent frost, assuming the pattern the models are currently showing even pans out.

Last October had a ton of frost and freezes just about everywhere so it’s not like it’s been awhile since we’ve seen this sort of thing.

That's the year we recently had a lot of frosty roofs! It seemed to me there was a recent year we had a lot of white frost on roofs more then usual.  It seemed it wouldn't end.  It was very weird waking up to everything being white even though it was NOT snow.

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18 minutes ago, Link said:

At this time of the year are we talking about ground frosts or severe air frost with air temp appropriate for such conditions?  Also would this translate to hoar frost?  Do we even get hoar frost here or does that require a special setup?

I think hoar frost is what you get when the ground and other surfaces cool to below freezing with radiational cooling on a clear night.  Sometimes it begins as dew and then freezes later or can begin as frost early in the evening in colder situations.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

Floods in the dead of winter usually mean it’s torching..hard for me to derive excitement from that, but to each their own.

A lot of our great winters had a nice mix of stormy and cold.

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think hoar frost is what you get when the ground and other surfaces cool to below freezing with radiational cooling on a clear night.  Sometimes it begins as dew and then freezes later or can begin as frost early in the evening in colder situations.

Any way to see on models the kind of conditions that permit that?  Did I say something against the forum rules? 🤔

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12 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You mean all the exciting stuff 😏 

To me cold and snow is what it's all about.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12Z EPS is colder than the 00Z run for next weekend and early the following week.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3238400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

To me cold and snow is what it's all about.  

Then you will almost never fully enjoy a winter in this climate. Especially in the modern era. Best to just embrace the other stuff.

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18 minutes ago, Link said:

Serious about what? What kind of frost are we likely to get out of the pattern depicted for next week? Just a slight ground/roof frost or a full heavy one where it can look like light 'fake' snow the ground?  My favorite is the latter but I'll accept the former.

Chances of a hard freeze here in the valleys are quite low.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Link said:

Any way to see on models the kind of conditions that permit that?  Did I say something against the forum rules? 🤔

Generally if it's a clear night November through March with freezing levels above the surface you are going to see radiational cooling induced hoar frost.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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