October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Timmy Supercell]

28 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Sacramento Valley, Jan 1937:

Redding - snowfall probably 15-20”, monthly avg 39.9/28.3

Red Bluff - 15”, avg 43.0/27.9

Willows - 17”, monthly avg 44.8/28.0

Chico got to 12°F, monthly avg 43.8/28.2

Sacramento saw snow on four separate days but with little or no accumulation, monthly average 45.9/31.5

Didn't Redding get 12-15" in one quick storm in February 2019?

Pretty sure that was within a few days of the Tacoma, WA snowstorm.

[snow maniac]

Rain shadow in full effect here just sunny and breezy 

[Omegaraptor]

14 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Didn't Redding get 12-15" in one quick storm in February 2019?

Pretty sure that was within a few days of the Tacoma, WA snowstorm.

RDD got 9”. RDD is southeast of and drier than Redding proper, though.

[Dave]

16 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Didn't Redding get 12-15" in one quick storm in February 2019?

Pretty sure that was within a few days of the Tacoma, WA snowstorm.

Yep. Eugene did too. I was out of state at the time, so I basically enabled it to occur. The dolt shield was down for 30 days and some amazing happened.

https://activenorcal.com/redding-receives-its-biggest-snowstorm-in-over-50-years/

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, dolt said:

Yep. Eugene did too. I was out of state at the time, so I basically allowed it to happen. The dolt shield was down for 30 days and some amazing happened.

https://activenorcal.com/redding-receives-its-biggest-snowstorm-in-over-50-years/

My depth was never over 9.5" that whole season at my house, and can you believe while it was snowing in Redding, CA I was getting moderate rain?  Of course that quickly changed right back to snow the next day.

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The Weatherbell maps spit out highs low to mid 50s next weekend for SEA and widespread lows below 40 for the lowlands Saturday and Sunday nights.

Currently 54 here! 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m sorry, I don’t see his point. Sure, the forecast from a month out stank. So what? Forecast accuracy does stink that far out. This is not exactly news. As my tagline says….

When a model consistently “busts” the same way each time, there’s something fundamentally flawed in the model..IE: it’s biased.

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Joe Bastardi is correct on this one. Seasonal models have become increasing warm-biased over the last decade. Almost to the point of uselessness.

 

Looks like it was forecasting a nice pattern

[Phil]

Fred is going all Nate Silver on us.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Looks like it was forecasting a nice pattern

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

When a model consistently “busts” the same way each time, there’s something fundamentally flawed in the model..IE: it’s biased.

It actually was too cold in the west and too warm in the east.  I am guessing there was lots of spread so it ended up look uniform across the country.   There was no strong signal either way.   

[Timmy Supercell]

Facts vs. Preferences vs. Onions

[MossMan]

My almost 2yr old 2 legger and 5yr old 4 legger are both enjoying this fine day! Partly cloudy and very windy! 
54 degrees. 

[Phil]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It actually was too cold in the west and too warm in the east.  I am guessing there was lots of spread so it ended up look uniform across the country.   There was no strong signal either way.   

The full CONUS average was too warm as well. Of course there’s spread and that’s why signals are weak at best, but the point is the average was too warm nationally.

[El_Nina]

Thunder and pouring rains currently. Up to 1.34" today.

[High Desert Mat?]

New tablet. I know I do it every year but can someone please send me a link to the ensembles? Thanks

 

[Deweydog]

31 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

New tablet. I know I do it every year but can someone please send me a link to the ensembles? Thanks

 

All those conference calls really shorten tablet lifespan...

[MossMan]

Snowing at Stevens. 

[Meatyorologist]

Got some quarter-inch or so hail at my place in North Seattle. Lots of lightning as well. Biggest hail I've seen in Seattle in 19 years of living here. Incredible stuff.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 hours ago, dolt said:

Yep. Eugene did too. I was out of state at the time, so I basically enabled it to occur. The dolt shield was down for 30 days and some amazing happened.

https://activenorcal.com/redding-receives-its-biggest-snowstorm-in-over-50-years/

One of the 2 best snow events in EUG's record books. At some point another one of these will hopefully happen in Dec-Jan.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

One of the 2 best snow events in EUG's record books. At some point another one of these will hopefully happen in Dec-Jan.

Good times!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Much chillier with each run for 10+ days out.

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Much chillier with each run for 10+ days out.

Man, that one ensemble going down to -11C, I want what they're having.

[Timmy Supercell]

21 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

One of the 2 best snow events in EUG's record books. At some point another one of these will hopefully happen in Dec-Jan.

I love Pelican! The new downtown store we have used to sell Umbrella 6-packs for $5.99 (obviously with rewards..). Now I can't find it anywhere.

Those were good times to have an Umbrella over our heads...

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]

Next up....

00z GFS in 2 hours 18 minutes

Later this evening....

00z GEM/CMC in 2 hours 40 minutes

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 35 minutes

 

Colder runs ahead? Could it be? C'MON!!!!

[snow_wizard]

Thankfully the 18Z EPS and EPS control are way better than the 18Z gfs.  They backed off a little through day 6, but it still looks decent.  Day 6 is as far out as the those models go on the 18z.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

[Model Countdown]

Next up....

00z GFS in 2 hours 18 minutes

Later this evening....

00z GEM/CMC in 2 hours 40 minutes

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 35 minutes

 

Colder runs ahead? Could it be? C'MON!!!!

I hope that 18z GFS was just a hiccup.

[snow_wizard]

Today was a real bust for anything interesting here.  Way too much SW wind/ down sloping off the Olympics.  Days like this are pretty frustrating here when watching places in the C-Zone and south of here getting much more interesting weather.  No doubt it's a whole lot cooler today though.

[El_Nina]

Up to 1.91" after the thunderstorm.

[Timmy Supercell]

Timberline Lodge got their first snow of the season. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Snowing at the summit of Stevens Pass

[FroYoBro]

The 0z (insert model here) is going to be insane tonight!

[jcmcgaffey]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Got some quarter-inch or so hail at my place in North Seattle. Lots of lightning as well. Biggest hail I've seen in Seattle in 19 years of living here. Incredible stuff.

Where in north seattle are you? I’m in the Greenwood area.

A few July’s ago was the largest hail I had ever seen.  It was different than how most hails storms start around here. There was no rain just random large chunks of hail.  I was sitting outside and thought someone threw something at my car.

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Where in north seattle are you? I’m in the Greenwood area.

A few July’s ago was the largest hail I had ever seen.  It was different than how most hails storms start around here. There was no rain just random large chunks of hail.  I was sitting outside and thought someone threw something at my car.

I'm in Lake City. I remember that morning. No hail here, but lots of lightning and various midlevel pop-up showers. Do you remember how big the hailstones were?

[TacomaWaWx]

60/53 0.95” today. Was a decent amount of sunshine today actually...was pretty breezy too. Also up to 1.58” for October. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Feels like a November evening suddenly. The wind makes it even cooler outside.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

63/55 and 1.3" of rain since midnight.

[Deweydog]

Any pregame thoughts about the 00z?  Keys to victory?  Players to watch?  Sponsor shoutouts?

[MossMan]

34 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Any pregame thoughts about the 00z?  Keys to victory?  Players to watch?  Sponsor shoutouts?

Pregame cancelled due to Dori Monson and the Gorton Fisherman being suspended because of extreme EPS bias. 

[MossMan]

First fireplace fire up of the season! Forty nine degrees currently. 
And I’m currently watching a show about young couple that just bought this lovely home on the water...Should be a relaxing evening!