snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Bucked off already? Better luck next time, cowboy. The cowboy seems a little condescending. Can't we be respectful to each other on here? 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: The cowboy seems a little condescending. I just don’t see why so many people get so excited when a few runs of some models show something interesting happening a week or more out. Model accuracy at that time range is known to be lacking, to the point that such excitement leads to disappointment more often than it bears fruit. I only get excited if the story stays the same as the time frame gets under a week (and ideally, under three days). Just been let down too many times in the past. To each his (or her) own, I guess. 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It appears 1942 and 1988 are the closest analogs to this year as far as strong first year Nina with a warm October. Both got epic later on. I'm pretty disappointed with this month though. I guess there is still time for something good late in the month. Also 2010/11 to an extent. You’ve got a solid winter incoming, Jim. It doesn’t snow in October anyway..no opportunities available to be squandered yet. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 9 hours ago, Phil said: La Niña looks really legit now. Can't wait until it does something for us. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I just don’t see why so many people get so excited when a few runs of some models show something interesting happening a week or more out. Model accuracy at that time range is known to be lacking, to the point that such excitement leads to disappointment more often than it bears fruit. I only get excited if the story stays the same as the time frame gets under a week (and ideally, under three days). Just been let down too many times in the past. To each his (or her) own, I guess. Fair enough. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Louks like a good chance for some showers later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 For it being 10/11 things are already getting tense around here...Going to be a fun winter!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 minute ago, MossMan said: For it being 10/11 things are already getting tense around here...Going to be a fun winter!! Might be some of the earliest Jim-counseling on record. Has to be a good/bad sign! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Ended up with a 62/52 spread yesterday. Morning rain and afternoon showers/sunbreaks. Cloudy and another extremely mild morning with a low of 52 here. At least we are starting to catch up on rainfall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, MossMan said: For it being 10/11 things are already getting tense around here...Going to be a fun winter!! This incessant return to death ridges is getting a bit old. On a positive note I think there could be quite a flip side to this later. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Ended up with a 62/52 spread yesterday. Morning rain and afternoon showers/sunbreaks. Cloudy and another extremely mild morning with a low of 52 here. At least we are starting to catch up on rainfall. It managed to drop to 48 here which isn't horrible for being cloudy I guess. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 PDX is only 1 inch below normal for the year now... and will probably around normal by Tuesday. Whew! 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Might be some of the earliest Jim-counseling on record. Has to be a good/bad sign! I'm just mildly disappointed. Almost any year beats the early autumn we have had this year for interesting / cool weather. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Just now, snow_wizard said: I'm just mildly disappointed. Almost any year beats the early autumn we have had this year for interesting / cool weather. Definitely a slow starter, but definitely not a surprise given the current state of our climate and what is a developing cold ENSO event. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eujunga said: Once you get out past 5 days or so, seems like the ridgier solutions verify way more often than the troughier ones do, but the skew could just be in my perception. Definitely been true lately. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 At least the 12z GFS ensemble wasn't as terrible as the 6z. There were some cold members. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 As I’ve said before, I expect a typical strong La Niña winter. To wit, cooler and stormier than normal, but not an epic year for lowland snow. More a normal year for lowland snow. Strong La Niña winters tend to have just too much persistent onshore flow to reliably get the sort of arctic, continental outflow we need for epic amounts of lowland snow. Note that even in a normal year, pretty much all lowland locations (aside from the immediate coast) see some snow, so I do not expect a bust year with little or no lowland snow. In the mountains, snow levels will be at persistently lower than normal elevations, so coupled with the plentiful storms skiers should be very happy this winter. 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: Definitely been true lately. A natural corollary of prime driving principle in the universe, Murphy’s Law. 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Nice write up from Mark on the fires. I still am so heartbroken over this. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2020/10/11/septembers-historic-fires-smoke-and-wind-storm/?fbclid=IwAR1DjF-sP2wmB6Xbeos4GM2mZn-CUBUAZcTI4-86YmYC54KldyJ1lyorqJY 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: As I’ve said before, I expect a typical strong La Niña winter. To wit, cooler and stormier than normal, but not an epic year for lowland snow. More a normal year for lowland snow. Strong La Niña winters tend to have just too much persistent onshore flow to reliably get the sort of arctic, continental outflow we need for epic amounts of lowland snow. Note that even in a normal year, pretty much all lowland locations (aside from the immediate coast) see some snow, so I do not expect a bust year with little or no lowland snow. In the mountains, snow levels will be at persistently lower than normal elevations, so coupled with the plentiful storms skiers should be very happy this winter. If you do not know this about me, you will learn. I am cold onshore flow's #1 fan. 1 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: As I’ve said before, I expect a typical strong La Niña winter. To wit, cooler and stormier than normal, but not an epic year for lowland snow. More a normal year for lowland snow. Strong La Niña winters tend to have just too much persistent onshore flow to reliably get the sort of arctic, continental outflow we need for epic amounts of lowland snow. Note that even in a normal year, pretty much all lowland locations (aside from the immediate coast) see some snow, so I do not expect a bust year with little or no lowland snow. In the mountains, snow levels will be at persistently lower than normal elevations, so coupled with the plentiful storms skiers should be very happy this winter. Think I already saw this in the BC forum. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: If you do not know this about me, you will learn. I am cold onshore flow's #1 fan. Your home is at enough elevation to really capitalize on the snowfall in such situations. I expect you will indeed see a lot of the white stuff. 1 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 If I don’t get a real snow event this winter, let’s just say my consideration of Montana State is going to go up significantly. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Oh no. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: As I’ve said before, I expect a typical strong La Niña winter. To wit, cooler and stormier than normal, but not an epic year for lowland snow. More a normal year for lowland snow. Strong La Niña winters tend to have just too much persistent onshore flow to reliably get the sort of arctic, continental outflow we need for epic amounts of lowland snow. Note that even in a normal year, pretty much all lowland locations (aside from the immediate coast) see some snow, so I do not expect a bust year with little or no lowland snow. In the mountains, snow levels will be at persistently lower than normal elevations, so coupled with the plentiful storms skiers should be very happy this winter. This isn’t really accurate, though. 2010/11, 1988/89, 1955/56, 1949/50, etc, were all strong niñas, with lots of lowland cold/snow. Some are also zonal..1974/75, 2007/08, etc. The reason why some strong niñas are zonal and others are meridional/blocky is due to a variety of factors..many of which are external or peripheral to the ENSO system. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: If I don’t get a real snow event this winter, let’s just say my consideration of Montana State is going to go up significantly. As they are fond of saying in the BC forums, if you don't like the weather patterns where you live: MOVE. Seriously, though, I think your location has a very good shot of seeing three or four inches on the ground at some point this winter. Such amounts really aren’t that unusual in your area. A few dustings and one dump of several inches is completely in line with climactic norms. 1 2 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Nice write up from Mark on the fires. I still am so heartbroken over this. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2020/10/11/septembers-historic-fires-smoke-and-wind-storm/?fbclid=IwAR1DjF-sP2wmB6Xbeos4GM2mZn-CUBUAZcTI4-86YmYC54KldyJ1lyorqJY I read that this morning. Good read 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: As they are fond of saying in the BC forums, if you don't like the weather patterns where you live: MOVE. Seriously, though, I think your location has a very good shot of seeing three or four inches on the ground at some point this winter. Such amounts really aren’t that unusual in your area. A few dustings and one dump of several inches is completely in line with climactic norms. What are you seeing for me??? Please include dates, dew point spread and (approximate) flake size. Thanks in advance! 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Just now, Deweydog said: What are you seeing for me??? Please include dates, dew point spread and (approximate) flake size. Thanks in advance! Tossed salads and scrambled eggs. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Moist day. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Moist day. Prove it. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 17 minutes ago, Deweydog said: What are you seeing for me??? Please include dates, dew point spread and (approximate) flake size. Thanks in advance! Snow levels will remain 20’ above your location...All winter. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 18 minutes ago, Deweydog said: What are you seeing for me??? Please include dates, dew point spread and (approximate) flake size. Thanks in advance! Lots of 33-degree rain. And one ice storm. 3 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Lots of 33-degree rain. And one ice storm. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Starting to sprinkle. 50 degrees. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 52 with light rain here. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 56 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: As I’ve said before, I expect a typical strong La Niña winter. To wit, cooler and stormier than normal, but not an epic year for lowland snow. More a normal year for lowland snow. Strong La Niña winters tend to have just too much persistent onshore flow to reliably get the sort of arctic, continental outflow we need for epic amounts of lowland snow. Note that even in a normal year, pretty much all lowland locations (aside from the immediate coast) see some snow, so I do not expect a bust year with little or no lowland snow. In the mountains, snow levels will be at persistently lower than normal elevations, so coupled with the plentiful storms skiers should be very happy this winter. Actually strong first year Ninas have a tendency to have at least one major Arctic blast. 1942, 1949, 1988, 1998, and 2010 are all examples. It seems that positive QBO also increases the odds for major blocking in this context. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 The ECMWF has a different solution yet where the NC / NE Pacific cutoff low is much weaker and leads to another chance after the one we've been watching. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Euro still looks a lot closer to something good next weekend than the GFS or the previous Euro run, but still a huge step back from yesterday’s epic 12z. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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