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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Halloween looks wet on the 12z CFS. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Here's the snow thus far

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

Sorry guys I ended up getting chased around the outside of the building at work by a whacked out homeless guy on drugs...That was a first! I was mostly worried about the snot coming out of his nose as

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Halloween looks wet on the 12z CFS. 

Let it pour on Halloween here since everyone will be home!

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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28 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I would agree. But the “we’re blowing our load to early!!!” mentality doesn’t really hold a lot of water in either case.

I do agree in principle. Though if it’s a case where LF wavetrain harmonics are present, then sure it can end up out of phase/ill-timed for the cold season. Imagine a lower frequency manifestation of the Branstrator cycle. But that’s not truly random, either.

And I don’t think that’s the issue this year anyway, given the degree of interhemispheric destructive interference present.

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This year, with the deck stacked in our favor and a bunch of face cards upcoming, I don't actually think there will be any early "load blowing" even if we get something cold here soon. The indices are way different.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 57F (Oct 22)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 23)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 2 (Most recent: Oct 23, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Makes sense. That one and 1970-71 seemed like much better fits than 54-55 and 16-17. I was just looking at RAW ONI numbers, so obviously last year was weak in that regard. 

I also think of February 2019 as a later season poor man's version of January 1969. 

On paper you’d think 2016/17 would be a decent analog. Problem is it had a warm EPAC (and even flipped to +ENSO territory in niño-3 for F/M/A, in some ways resembling 1997/98). Obviously nothing like the cold EPAC we have going on right now.

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37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

17 at my house. Silver Falls hit 19, which was their first sub- 20 March low since 1976. 

 

36 minutes ago, Jesse said:

WOW

I had a low of 19 in March 2019. Teens in March (at least in the first half) aren't really rare at my place considering the average low is 26.

Here's a look at March 2017 and 2018, I had lows even colder those months. That 11 in 2018 could have been a daily record.

March 2019 will get extra points though with 6.2" inches of snow on the morning of 03/10/2019. That was my best daily snowfall (24hrs) that season.

2017-03.png

2018-03.png

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Also it’s interesting we have the +IOD trying to resurface now w/ a relative SSTA/UOHC minimum in the E-IO.

+IOD/-ENSO is destructive interference via two of the three foundations of the ENSO/warm pool system. Doesn’t happen often. But some of the stronger niñas in recent memory (2007/07 and 1999/00) did have a more +IOD. And they were both unique in their own ways.

By contrast, 2016/17 was very -IOD upon the establishment of the -ENSO.

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Nice day overall...up to 61 with a nice mix of clouds and sun here. Crazy that we’re halfway through meteorological fall on Thursday already. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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But there could also be a period in December where we overlap (metaphorically) with the 2016/17 progression. Maybe. Spitballing a little bit rn.

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4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

 

I had a low of 19 in March 2019. Teens in March (at least in the first half) aren't really rare at my place considering the average low is 26.

Here's a look at March 2017 and 2018, I had lows even colder those months. That 11 in 2018 could have been a daily record.

March 2019 will get extra points though with 6.2" inches of snow on the morning of 03/10/2019. That was my best daily snowfall (24hrs) that season.

2017-03.png

2018-03.png

I think we had one morning hit 26 here that month...several others in the 20s as well. Had 1.5” of snow that month too still the best March I’ve seen in my lifetime in terms of snow and cold. Was pretty interesting we went from mid 30s and snow to mid 70s and sunshine here in a weeks time. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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February/March 2019 was epic. Probably one of my favorite memories besides getting nearly 2 feet of snow at my house was going up to orcas island in March 2019. Was 3 feet of snow up there still and nobody else on the mountain except me. 

2217B846-AB1E-4208-B391-F29508E34561.jpeg

262859F3-B3E2-4B1D-B2F8-4DF0743AD9B0.jpeg

6D7E5FE0-FF34-46EB-8CD1-C8EB5C953DA0.jpeg

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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12Z ECMWF maximum wind gust through tomorrow evening...

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-2633600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

February/March 2019 was epic. Probably one of my favorite memories besides getting nearly 2 feet of snow at my house was going up to orcas island in March 2019. Was 3 feet of snow up there still and nobody else on the mountain except me. 

2217B846-AB1E-4208-B391-F29508E34561.jpeg

262859F3-B3E2-4B1D-B2F8-4DF0743AD9B0.jpeg

6D7E5FE0-FF34-46EB-8CD1-C8EB5C953DA0.jpeg

Awesome pics.

February easily ranked 2nd snowiest and coolest. I had a bunch of moderate snowfalls distributed throughout the month instead of big storms like what Tacoma got. 4.8" was my max daily snow.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Grays Harbor County(WA)

Tornado confirmed. It appears it fluctuated between EF-0 and EF-1 strength. C'MON!!!!

🌪️

 

[Delayed Report] 7 SSW Amanda Park [Grays Harbor Co, WA] FIRE DEPT/RESCUE reports TORNADO at 10 Oct, 4:40 AM PDT -- A QUINAULT INDIAN NATION FIRE OFFICIAL REPORTED THAT AT APPROXIMATELY 5:20 AM HE CAME UPON 10 DOWNED TREES (1-2.5 FEET IN DIAMETER) ACROSS MOCLIPS HIGHWAY (S-26) AT APPROXIMATELY MILE MARKER 18. DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH AN EF-0 TORNADO AT THIS LOCATION.

 

[Delayed Report] 7 SSW Amanda Park [Grays Harbor Co, WA] TRAINED SPOTTER reports TORNADO at 10 Oct, 4:42 AM PDT -- REPORTS AND IMAGERY FROM A TRAINED SPOTTER IDENTIFIED TREE DAMAGE ACROSS A FOREST SERVICE ROAD. HARDWOOD AND SOFTWOOD TREES WERE SNAPPED MID-TRUNK AT THIS LOCATION. PHOTOGRAPHS PROVIDED SHOWED DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH AN EF-1 TORNADO.

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Probably just bad luck for Kansas but saw this today on facebook and needed to share. lol

 

121093507_4363429463731157_3756625855690375824_o.jpg

  • Windy 1

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF maximum wind gust through tomorrow evening...

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-2633600.png

Looks like winds just high enough to take down some lines in my area especially with foliage still on the trees. 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not sure if this has been posted already or not but here are some peak wind gusts from the Columbus Day Storm back in 1962.

Image

Looked like my area most likely saw between 80-90mph winds...That is insane. My dad was 9yrs old and still remembers how crazy that storm was. They lived in Edmonds at the time. 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not sure if this has been posted already or not but here are some peak wind gusts from the Columbus Day Storm back in 1962.

Image

Could have sworn KLMT was 70+ maybe 80. The other ones all look right.

That was one big dust devil. ;)

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Looks like the WRF times the windfield showing up in the South Sound by Noon and Everett by 2pm. Bellingham, the Lower Mainland, and Victoria all look blustery.

wxloop_wrfd3_ww_wgsfc____3.png

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF maximum wind gust through tomorrow evening...

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-2633600.png

Wow could be 50-55mph here tomorrow. Pretty decent wind event if it pans out. 

  • Windy 3

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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WWUS76 KSEW 122240
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
340 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2020

WAZ504-507-509-511-556-558-559-131130-

Southwest Interior-Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-
Hood Canal Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-
Bremerton and Vicinity-
Including the cities of Olympia, Lacey, Tumwater, Everett,
Edmonds, Lynnwood, Marysville, Tacoma, Shelton, Redmond,
Kirkland, Bothell, Kenmore, Newport Hills, Sahalee, Pine Lake,
Seattle, Bremerton, and Silverdale
340 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM PDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Southwest Interior, Everett and Vicinity, Tacoma Area,
Hood Canal Area, Bellevue and Vicinity, Seattle and Vicinity
and Bremerton and Vicinity.

* WHEN...From noon to 6 PM PDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

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56 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not sure if this has been posted already or not but here are some peak wind gusts from the Columbus Day Storm back in 1962.

Image

Someone always posts this graphic every year since 2013 right around the second week of October.

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

2019/20 registered “weak” +ENSO in terms of ONI, but the +IOD/IPWP subsidence was off the frickin charts. I consider 2019/20 to be more +ENSO in sum vs 2018/19, despite the fact the ONI was higher in 2018/19.

1986/87 and 1987/88 were both niños. Followed by 1988/89, which was a strong Niña without a Pacific cold phase regime..much like 2020. And it featured a warm/ridgy start to autumn.

I really like 1988/89 as an analog right now.

1988/89 was a -QBO though. This upcoming winter looks to be +QBO so while good, still not a perfect analog.

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1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Awesome pics.

February easily ranked 2nd snowiest and coolest. I had a bunch of moderate snowfalls distributed throughout the month instead of big storms like what Tacoma got. 4.8" was my max daily snow.

Yeah we got 9” in one storm here...biggest single event I’ve seen here. Each of the three snow event were cool in their own way. First one was 9” second one was 5”...but all of that fell in 2 hours. Final one was 6” during the overrunning event. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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62/52 today. Got a decent amount of sunshine...interested to see how this storm plays out tomorrow. Didn’t have any real wind events last year so nice to see us getting one early in the year. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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21 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

1988/89 was a -QBO though. This upcoming winter looks to be +QBO so while good, still not a perfect analog.

1988/89 was +QBO at/below 40mb, which has the highest influence on tropical static stability and tropopause height (which IIRC is associated w/ the structure of the NPAC High/overall tropical forcing/ITCZ intensity).

As far as I’m aware, at least.

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Right now I am really liking 1970-71 and 1988-89. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

1988/89 was +QBO at/below 40mb, which has the highest influence on tropical static stability and tropopause height (which IIRC is associated w/ the structure of the NPAC High/overall tropical forcing/ITCZ intensity).

As far as I’m aware, at least.

Thanks for the insight. I did not know that. I'm always learning. 😃

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21 minutes ago, Phil said:

1988/89 was +QBO at/below 40mb, which has the highest influence on tropical static stability and tropopause height (which IIRC is associated w/ the structure of the NPAC High/overall tropical forcing/ITCZ intensity).

As far as I’m aware, at least.

Do you have a link to a website where I can see historical QBO cycles and where the +/- were at in terms of mb's?

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1 hour ago, Jbolin said:

Someone always posts this graphic every year since 2013 right around the second week of October.

 

I used to post SVR Watches for the Willamette Valley every June 4th 😆⛈️

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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The European suite of models is really getting a cold look to it beginning later in the week.  The EPS mean now drop the PNA to -3 for a time about a week from now.  Looks like fall has arrived!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Right now I am really liking 1970-71 and 1988-89. 

A blend of those two would be potentially epic.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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50 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Do you have a link to a website where I can see historical QBO cycles and where the +/- were at in terms of mb's?

image.jpeg

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Lava beds monument looks different from my last visit.  Fire damage pretty insane.  Temp was in the 70s earlier but cooling off rapidly now.  Should be in low 30s tonight.

Sad I will miss the windy stormy weather back home but enjoyed caving and biking.

0D4FDB61-E76C-4BA1-ABA4-4F9D118CC59E.jpeg

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4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any ENSO resources for Pre-1950? 

This is an extremely useful resource I found recently.  It has ENSO data back to 1871.  

. If you scroll down you will find a table where ENSO events are ranked from 1 (coldest) to 140 (warmest) and it is broken down by quarter years (or maybe it's thirds).  I actually like this better than a table of monthly anomalies.

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2336

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The European suite of models is really getting a cold look to it beginning later in the week.  The EPS mean now drop the PNA to -3 for a time about a week from now.  Looks like fall has arrived!

Sounds promising. 00z runs tonight might be quite interesting.

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up.....

00z NAM in 16 minutes

Later this evening....

00z GFS in 2 hours 2 minutes

00z GEM/CMC in 2 hours 34 minutes

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 19 minutes

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4 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Lava beds monument looks different from my last visit.  Fire damage pretty insane.  Temp was in the 70s earlier but cooling off rapidly now.  Should be in low 30s tonight.

Sad I will miss the windy stormy weather back home but enjoyed caving and biking.

0D4FDB61-E76C-4BA1-ABA4-4F9D118CC59E.jpeg

Awesome photo. Im betting this storm won’t be the only one we get this year....I’m sure this won’t be the strongest either. You’ll be able to catch the next one. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

And for anyone who wants a rough PNW guide from the beginning of somewhat reliable records

Every 1st year Nina winter:

2016-17- Cold throughout

2010-11- November and late February arctic events

2007-08- Cold spring, big foothill snow year

1998-99- Major December arctic event

1995-96- Stormy throughout, late January arctic event

1988-89- Major early February and early March arctic events

1983-84- Major December arctic event

1973-74- Early January arctic event

1970-71- Active throughout, mid January and late February regional snow-modified arctic events

1967-68- Mid December and late January arctic events

1964-65- Active throughout, major mid to late December arctic event and flooding

1954-55- Late February and March arctic events

1949-50- Decent winter

1944-45- Modified cold in late December, mostly garbage

1942-43- Major January arctic event

1933-34- Historic warmth and December storms

1924-25- Major December arctic event

1922-23- Mostly cold throughout, major arctic events December and February

1920-21- Stormy, wet snow events peppered through back half

1915-16- Decent winter

1908-09- Major January arctic event

1906-07- Major January arctic event, cold throughout

1903-04- Stormy, mostly wet snow events with big northern event in February

1897-98- Mostly wet snow events, arctic air in late January

1892-93- Decent winter

1889-90- Another decent winter

1886-87- Major arctic event in February

1879-80- Yet another pretty decent winter

1872-73- Cold/snow throughout, major arctic event in November

1869-70- Major arctic event in mid March

 

 

 

 

Thanks for putting this together. 49-50 just decent eh. Lol.

 

00z ECMWF (Christmas Eve) in 1,798 hours 8 minutes

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

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