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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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At least the ECMWF is much chillier than the GFS overall.  Obviously this pattern is extremely complex as evidenced by the myriad of changes we've seen in the various models over the last day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Euro still looks a lot closer to something good next weekend than the GFS or the previous Euro run, but still a huge step back from yesterday’s epic 12z.

Yeah.  The good news is that stupid offshore low that messes up the GFS is very deemphasized on this Euro run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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One thing I'm pretty confident of at this point given the ENSO, QBO, solar context we're in is we'll see one really good month this winter.  Beyond that I'm not going speculate.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Wow these other weather forums sound great. I think I’ll shut this place down so you can spend some quality time there.

Yeah....moving isn't as easy for some of us as it sounds.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing I'm pretty confident of at this point given the ENSO, QBO, solar context we're in is we'll see one really good month this winter.  Beyond that I'm not going speculate.

Only one?????

 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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9 minutes ago, iFred said:

Wow these other weather forums sound great. I think I’ll shut this place down so you can spend some quality time there.

Post of the day! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Only one?????

 

I'm just saying if you look at the best analogs a fair number had one really good month.  That is probably the most likely outcome.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Post of the day! 

The guy he was replying to is being a bit of an arse.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just saying if you look at the best analogs a fair number had one really good month.  That is probably the most likely outcome.

I guess it comes down to what your idea of a “really good month” is.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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24 minutes ago, iFred said:

Wow these other weather forums sound great. I think I’ll shut this place down so you can spend some quality time there.

Bravo! Yes, I must say old chap, putting but an ounce of stock in the models beyond anymore than one half a fortnight is quite simply balderdash! If there was anything my time in the rowing club at Yale taught me it is that it is a clear and utter exercise in futility to conduct one’s self in any way otherwise.

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4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Not sure why everyone was eyeing the next week period anyways.

 

Halloween is still almost 3 weeks away. Snow. 

Not sure why everyone is always not sure why other people have different preferences.

Some chilly offshore flow, crisp sunny days and frost in mid October would have been a fun change of pace IMO. Especially since it been so warm lately. To me it has no bearing on whether we see snow three months from now.

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12 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Not sure why everyone is always not sure why other people have different preferences.

Some chilly offshore flow, crisp sunny days and frost in mid October would have been a fun change of pace IMO. Especially since it been so warm lately. To me it has no bearing on whether we see snow three months from now.

Given the context a cold October wasn't necessary this year, but I would have liked it.  This has really been a dud of an autumn so far.  At least today is solidly cool.  I remember hating the autumn of 1988 also, so there is that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I can live with what the EPS and EPS control are showing.  The EPS control is very much like the ECMWF operational is showing a chilly trough a couple of days later than the period we have been focusing on.  The mean still shows us getting brushed with Canadian air next weekend.  Maybe we will at least get our first lows in the 30s.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, puyallupjon said:

Love that clip.  That is definitely Jim.  

 

But......."It's a LOCK!"

 

Just giving you a hard time Jim.

I'm not saying it this year.  The only prediction I'm making is a good shot at one really solid month this winter.  In this context it's reasonably safe, but as we know Mother Nature will do what she wants.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Given the context a cold October wasn't necessary this year, but I would have liked it.  This has really been a dud of an autumn so far.  At least today is solidly cool.  I remember hating the autumn of 1988 also, so there is that.

We might have to wait. November 88' wasn't bad. We had snow in Spokane on election day, after record warmth on Halloween. I have a feeling about February-April. 

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19 minutes ago, van city said:

Lol. This place is one of a kind. Winter canceled!

There’s always next winter. Just a shame this ones already ruined. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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12z Op runs were too progressive which unfortunately slides the ridge over us. No surprise there. The EPS isn't much better. With La Nina strengthening and taking hold I would think that will favor a progressive pattern more so than any blocking in the Gulf of Alaska.

 

00z GFS in 6 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 39 minutes

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z Op runs were too progressive which unfortunately slides the ridge over us. No surprise there. The EPS isn't much better. With La Nina strengthening and taking hold I would think that will favor a progressive pattern more so than any blocking in the Gulf of Alaska.

 

00z GFS in 6 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 39 minutes

Ninas can actually produce spectacular GOA blocking like Jan 1943, Jan 1950, Nov 1955, Jan 1972, Feb 1989, Dec 1998, Feb 2011, and many others.  The positive QBO makes that more likely according to Phil and the records seem to bear that out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It ain't over until it's over

 

I think people are just kind of exaggerating right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hey now! I played a smaller role in the jinxing too. I would appreciate some recognition for that. 😃

Yeah...who would have thought they would have a near historic cold October in the East.  Just the way it goes sometimes.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like a I may have a shot at a 54 degree high today.  Solidly below normal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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  • Guest featured this topic

52/48 so far today. We have had the fire going all day. We had it going about a week ago in the morning, but this is the first time we have needed it all day. 

Little nervous about these winds this afternoon. We got the generator last week, but the electrician won't be here to hook it up for another week or two. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Ninas can actually produce spectacular GOA blocking like Jan 1943, Jan 1950, Nov 1955, Jan 1972, Feb 1989, Dec 1998, Feb 2011, and many others.  The positive QBO makes that more likely according to Phil and the records seem to bear that out.

+QBO does tend to favor a more poleward GOA/Aleutian ridge during the cold season. All else being equal.

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