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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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It gets really chilly in the 8 to 10 da period on the ECMWF.  Continental cold at that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Here's the snow thus far

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

Sorry guys I ended up getting chased around the outside of the building at work by a whacked out homeless guy on drugs...That was a first! I was mostly worried about the snot coming out of his nose as

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While the ECMWF isn't at all surprising given the fact a reversal almost has to happen at some point, I'm not quite ready to believe it yet.  It is interesting to note that even the torchy Octobers in the strong first year Ninas of 1942 and 1988 did have some chilly weather late month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The weatherbell maps show highs in the upper 40s next Thursday.  That would be a big change!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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33 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er

500h_anom.na.png

Night shift bonanza!!!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 57F (Oct 22)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 23)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 2 (Most recent: Oct 23, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Potentially some gusty southerlies for Salem-Vancouver tomorrow— maybe some 40+? We’ll see, gonna be interesting to see the low come in on satellite.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Down to 54F and mostly cloudy.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 57F (Oct 22)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 23)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 2 (Most recent: Oct 23, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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The EPS is considerably colder for this weekend and early next week now.  The EPS control strongly supports the operational run in depicting a rather sharp cold snap next week.  This is really evolving quickly!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I'm back because I just killed by far the largest mosquito in my bedroom that I've ever seen. 1 1/2" .... What the heck man. Not cool. Oh, and yeah then I saw this.

 

00z EPS Day 3-10

500mb Height Anomaly. Here we go! C'MON!!!!

floop-eps-2020101300.500h_anom.na(2).gif

 

Day 5-10

850mb Temp Anomalies

00z EPS 850mb Temp Anomaly.gif

Moving towards potentially a chilly pre-Halloween pattern. C'MON!!!!

 

12z GFS in 6 hours 36 minutes

12z GEM/CMC in 6 hours 58 minutes

12z ECMWF in 8 hours 53 minutes

Edited by DJ Droppin
Because I like to party.
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Graphic for MPD #0822

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0822
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
438 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020

Areas affected...Western WA...Northwest OR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 130835Z - 131830Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall will be arriving this morning from a
quick-hitting atmospheric river arriving across the Pacific
Northwest.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-17 IR/WV imagery along with multiple
evening AMSU passes show a relatively robust atmospheric river
taking aim on the Pacific Northwest as an amplifying upper-level
trough and associated area of low pressure quickly ejects
east-northeast and approaches British Columbia. The trailing cold
front from the wave of low pressure has been producing some
heavier showers offshore with rainfall rates on the order of a
0.25 to 0.40 inch/hr range per the latest AMSU data.

Over the next few hours leading up to 12Z (5AM PDT), there should
be a substantial increase in a west-southwest low-level jet ahead
of the approaching cold front, with winds increasing to as much
50+ kts over the Olympic Peninsula and the Cascades of central to
southern WA. This will greatly increase the warm-air advection and
onshore moisture flux regime. Given the orthogonal nature of the
low-level jet relative to the coastal ranges and the Cascades,
there should be a substantial amount of orographic ascent that
will facilitate enhanced rainfall rates.

Rainfall rates are forecast by the 00Z/06Z HREF suite of guidance
to reach occasionally over a 0.50 inch/hr over the Olympics by
12Z, and also the central/southern areas of the WA Cascades
between 12Z and 15Z. As the offshore cold front arrives later this
morning and pushes inland, stronger low-level jet energy and
warm-air advection will also overspread much of northwest OR
bringing similar rainfall rates occasionally over a 0.50 inch/hr
here as well. The latest Max-of-Max (MOM) rainfall rate
information from the HREF guidance supports some isolated peak
rainfall rates reaching around 0.75 inch/hr in the 15Z to 18Z time
frame, before then tapering down as the front moves well inland.

Expect storm total rainfall amounts to be generally on the order
of 2 to 3 inches over the orographically favored higher terrain,
with some isolated amounts of 3 to 4+ inches going through 18Z.
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Station 46132 - South Brooks

image.png

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 42.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 15.1 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.52 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.28 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 50.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 59.0 °F
5-day plot - Wind Chill Wind Chill (CHILL): 41.2 °F
   
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I'm thinking the models aren't handling the strength with this low very well as it is bombing now.

5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.39 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.32 in ( Falling Rapidly )

Station 46132 - South Brooks

5-day plot - Air Pressure at 46132

5-day plot - Pressure Tendency at 46132

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If we are lucky PDX May see a sub 45 low!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like the GFS is out to lunch after early next week.  It wants to progress the offshore low closer to the coast while the Euro models take it completely out of the picture.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Today’s about to be interesting. Low of 48 this morning and 0.46” since midnight. Looks like some very heavy rain is coming in shortly and some lightning has been embedded in it. Wind should be picking up in a couple hours too! 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Definitely not walking to work this morning! Also just saw some lightning here! 

14FD8F04-EAC6-4383-A448-B87E9AD725A6.jpeg

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Have seen several flashes of lightning now to the west with this incoming band. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Getting some loud thunder now. Exciting way to start the day. Should get some 50mph gusts later today too and maybe some more thunderstorms. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Getting some loud thunder now. Exciting way to start the day. Should get some 50mph gusts later today too and maybe some more thunderstorms. 

Woohoo! Tuesday is the new party day. 

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Getting some crazy heavy rain and some house shaking thunder! 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Getting some crazy heavy rain and some house shaking thunder! 

Based on the radar... it will be here about 10 minutes.   That line is moving fast.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Based on the radar... it will be here about 10 minutes.   That line is moving fast.

Moved through here pretty fast with frequent lightning and some pretty heavy rain. 

  • Storm 1

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Moved through here pretty fast with frequent lightning and some pretty heavy rain. 

Just some light rain coming down with a bit of a south breeze here.

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I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

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Starting to get breezy here on the backside of the thunderstorms. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-38

Coldest high-51

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.85”

Cold season rainfall-2.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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That line is already past my area now as well.   The speed of this line of storms is probably indicative of the strong winds coming soon.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 hours ago, Jesse said:

Really a shame to see it so badly burnt there. My list of favorite spots that have been burnt is getting longer than the spots that haven't been burned.

Some areas untouched while other burned to the lava rock.  Campground in good shape but perimeter is all toast around camp. Jesse,  its still just as beautiful as ever.   
though.  You will still love this place as you always have.  Time to go play now :)

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CFS monthlies have been interesting. 

They are showing a VERY wet November, and a wetter than average December. Temps near to slightly above normal those months. 

Looks like they are going for a cooler and drier than normal January, and then February and March look very cool and wet. It is a believable progression...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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