Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Colder runs ahead? .... 6z GFS in 2 hours 30 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 It gets really chilly in the 8 to 10 da period on the ECMWF. Continental cold at that. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It gets really chilly in the 8 to 10 da period on the ECMWF. Continental cold at that. This is only the beginning. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 While the ECMWF isn't at all surprising given the fact a reversal almost has to happen at some point, I'm not quite ready to believe it yet. It is interesting to note that even the torchy Octobers in the strong first year Ninas of 1942 and 1988 did have some chilly weather late month. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 The weatherbell maps show highs in the upper 40s next Thursday. That would be a big change! 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 That translates to highs in the mid 40's. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Lows in the 30s 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 I actually made a mistake, here are the *minimum temperatures for that 6-hor period, not the maximum. Freezing away from the water. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 33 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er Night shift bonanza!!! 1 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Night shift bonanza!!! Haha. I saw the notification and knew you were going to say something like that. I dunno I might go to sleep in a few minutes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Potentially some gusty southerlies for Salem-Vancouver tomorrow— maybe some 40+? We’ll see, gonna be interesting to see the low come in on satellite. 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Down to 54F and mostly cloudy. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Def getting excited for this winter given the deepening -ENSO regime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 The EPS is considerably colder for this weekend and early next week now. The EPS control strongly supports the operational run in depicting a rather sharp cold snap next week. This is really evolving quickly! 1 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, westiztehbest said: Def getting excited for this winter given the deepening -ENSO regime. I'm getting ready. Spokane should see a little bit of snow. 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 (edited) I'm back because I just killed by far the largest mosquito in my bedroom that I've ever seen. 1 1/2" .... What the heck man. Not cool. Oh, and yeah then I saw this. 00z EPS Day 3-10 500mb Height Anomaly. Here we go! C'MON!!!! Day 5-10 850mb Temp Anomalies Moving towards potentially a chilly pre-Halloween pattern. C'MON!!!! 12z GFS in 6 hours 36 minutes 12z GEM/CMC in 6 hours 58 minutes 12z ECMWF in 8 hours 53 minutes Edited October 13, 2020 by DJ Droppin Because I like to party. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0822 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 438 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Areas affected...Western WA...Northwest OR Concerning...Heavy rainfall Valid 130835Z - 131830Z SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall will be arriving this morning from a quick-hitting atmospheric river arriving across the Pacific Northwest. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-17 IR/WV imagery along with multiple evening AMSU passes show a relatively robust atmospheric river taking aim on the Pacific Northwest as an amplifying upper-level trough and associated area of low pressure quickly ejects east-northeast and approaches British Columbia. The trailing cold front from the wave of low pressure has been producing some heavier showers offshore with rainfall rates on the order of a 0.25 to 0.40 inch/hr range per the latest AMSU data. Over the next few hours leading up to 12Z (5AM PDT), there should be a substantial increase in a west-southwest low-level jet ahead of the approaching cold front, with winds increasing to as much 50+ kts over the Olympic Peninsula and the Cascades of central to southern WA. This will greatly increase the warm-air advection and onshore moisture flux regime. Given the orthogonal nature of the low-level jet relative to the coastal ranges and the Cascades, there should be a substantial amount of orographic ascent that will facilitate enhanced rainfall rates. Rainfall rates are forecast by the 00Z/06Z HREF suite of guidance to reach occasionally over a 0.50 inch/hr over the Olympics by 12Z, and also the central/southern areas of the WA Cascades between 12Z and 15Z. As the offshore cold front arrives later this morning and pushes inland, stronger low-level jet energy and warm-air advection will also overspread much of northwest OR bringing similar rainfall rates occasionally over a 0.50 inch/hr here as well. The latest Max-of-Max (MOM) rainfall rate information from the HREF guidance supports some isolated peak rainfall rates reaching around 0.75 inch/hr in the 15Z to 18Z time frame, before then tapering down as the front moves well inland. Expect storm total rainfall amounts to be generally on the order of 2 to 3 inches over the orographically favored higher terrain, with some isolated amounts of 3 to 4+ inches going through 18Z. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Low is undergoing big time cyclogenesis! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Station 46132 - South Brooks Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.0 kts Wind Gust (GST): 42.7 kts Wave Height (WVHT): 15.1 ft Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.52 in Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.28 in ( Falling Rapidly ) Air Temperature (ATMP): 50.2 °F Water Temperature (WTMP): 59.0 °F Wind Chill (CHILL): 41.2 °F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 I'm thinking the models aren't handling the strength with this low very well as it is bombing now. Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.39 in Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.32 in ( Falling Rapidly ) Station 46132 - South Brooks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Great night shift. Euro shows our first cold snap of the season and this morning should be nice and stormy across the region. The Halloween snowstorm is also getting closer! 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 If we are lucky PDX May see a sub 45 low! 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 The rain has returned. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Beast! Station 46132 - South Brooks Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.19 in Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.33 in ( Falling Rapidly ) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 The only place in the US with current/active lightning 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Sun is rising. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Looks like the GFS is out to lunch after early next week. It wants to progress the offshore low closer to the coast while the Euro models take it completely out of the picture. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Today’s about to be interesting. Low of 48 this morning and 0.46” since midnight. Looks like some very heavy rain is coming in shortly and some lightning has been embedded in it. Wind should be picking up in a couple hours too! 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Definitely not walking to work this morning! Also just saw some lightning here! 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Have seen several flashes of lightning now to the west with this incoming band. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Up to .54” on the day, currently dry but windy. Had a low of 44, currently 47. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Getting some loud thunder now. Exciting way to start the day. Should get some 50mph gusts later today too and maybe some more thunderstorms. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Getting some loud thunder now. Exciting way to start the day. Should get some 50mph gusts later today too and maybe some more thunderstorms. Woohoo! Tuesday is the new party day. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Getting some crazy heavy rain and some house shaking thunder! 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 I think I’ve seen more flashes then the map shows. 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Getting some crazy heavy rain and some house shaking thunder! Based on the radar... it will be here about 10 minutes. That line is moving fast. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Getting some crazy heavy rain and some house shaking thunder! Yep, very stormy here in Fircrest/East UP. Thunder is rolling. Happy Prime Day everyone! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Based on the radar... it will be here about 10 minutes. That line is moving fast. Moved through here pretty fast with frequent lightning and some pretty heavy rain. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 The low off Vancouver island. 1 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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