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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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It gets really chilly in the 8 to 10 da period on the ECMWF.  Continental cold at that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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While the ECMWF isn't at all surprising given the fact a reversal almost has to happen at some point, I'm not quite ready to believe it yet.  It is interesting to note that even the torchy Octobers in the strong first year Ninas of 1942 and 1988 did have some chilly weather late month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The weatherbell maps show highs in the upper 40s next Thursday.  That would be a big change!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That translates to highs in the mid 40's.

image.png

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Lows in the 30s

image.png

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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I actually made a mistake, here are the *minimum temperatures for that 6-hor period, not the maximum. Freezing away from the water.

image.png

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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33 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er

500h_anom.na.png

Night shift bonanza!!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Potentially some gusty southerlies for Salem-Vancouver tomorrow— maybe some 40+? We’ll see, gonna be interesting to see the low come in on satellite.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Down to 54F and mostly cloudy.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The EPS is considerably colder for this weekend and early next week now.  The EPS control strongly supports the operational run in depicting a rather sharp cold snap next week.  This is really evolving quickly!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm back because I just killed by far the largest mosquito in my bedroom that I've ever seen. 1 1/2" .... What the heck man. Not cool. Oh, and yeah then I saw this.

 

00z EPS Day 3-10

500mb Height Anomaly. Here we go! C'MON!!!!

floop-eps-2020101300.500h_anom.na(2).gif

 

Day 5-10

850mb Temp Anomalies

00z EPS 850mb Temp Anomaly.gif

Moving towards potentially a chilly pre-Halloween pattern. C'MON!!!!

 

12z GFS in 6 hours 36 minutes

12z GEM/CMC in 6 hours 58 minutes

12z ECMWF in 8 hours 53 minutes

Edited by DJ Droppin
Because I like to party.
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Graphic for MPD #0822

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0822
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
438 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020

Areas affected...Western WA...Northwest OR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 130835Z - 131830Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall will be arriving this morning from a
quick-hitting atmospheric river arriving across the Pacific
Northwest.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-17 IR/WV imagery along with multiple
evening AMSU passes show a relatively robust atmospheric river
taking aim on the Pacific Northwest as an amplifying upper-level
trough and associated area of low pressure quickly ejects
east-northeast and approaches British Columbia. The trailing cold
front from the wave of low pressure has been producing some
heavier showers offshore with rainfall rates on the order of a
0.25 to 0.40 inch/hr range per the latest AMSU data.

Over the next few hours leading up to 12Z (5AM PDT), there should
be a substantial increase in a west-southwest low-level jet ahead
of the approaching cold front, with winds increasing to as much
50+ kts over the Olympic Peninsula and the Cascades of central to
southern WA. This will greatly increase the warm-air advection and
onshore moisture flux regime. Given the orthogonal nature of the
low-level jet relative to the coastal ranges and the Cascades,
there should be a substantial amount of orographic ascent that
will facilitate enhanced rainfall rates.

Rainfall rates are forecast by the 00Z/06Z HREF suite of guidance
to reach occasionally over a 0.50 inch/hr over the Olympics by
12Z, and also the central/southern areas of the WA Cascades
between 12Z and 15Z. As the offshore cold front arrives later this
morning and pushes inland, stronger low-level jet energy and
warm-air advection will also overspread much of northwest OR
bringing similar rainfall rates occasionally over a 0.50 inch/hr
here as well. The latest Max-of-Max (MOM) rainfall rate
information from the HREF guidance supports some isolated peak
rainfall rates reaching around 0.75 inch/hr in the 15Z to 18Z time
frame, before then tapering down as the front moves well inland.

Expect storm total rainfall amounts to be generally on the order
of 2 to 3 inches over the orographically favored higher terrain,
with some isolated amounts of 3 to 4+ inches going through 18Z.
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Station 46132 - South Brooks

image.png

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 42.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 15.1 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.52 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.28 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 50.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 59.0 °F
5-day plot - Wind Chill Wind Chill (CHILL): 41.2 °F
   
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If we are lucky PDX May see a sub 45 low!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like the GFS is out to lunch after early next week.  It wants to progress the offshore low closer to the coast while the Euro models take it completely out of the picture.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Today’s about to be interesting. Low of 48 this morning and 0.46” since midnight. Looks like some very heavy rain is coming in shortly and some lightning has been embedded in it. Wind should be picking up in a couple hours too! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Getting some crazy heavy rain and some house shaking thunder! 

Based on the radar... it will be here about 10 minutes.   That line is moving fast.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Based on the radar... it will be here about 10 minutes.   That line is moving fast.

Moved through here pretty fast with frequent lightning and some pretty heavy rain. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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