October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[The Swamp]

37 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Are la Nina's usually front loaded or back loaded? Or always loaded?

Lumpy rain February - April

[Jesse]

What a nice day. Morning showers then a mix of clouds and sun in the afternoon. 61/49.

Already down to 53 out there, so easily the coolest evening of the fall so far. Could set a new daily low by midnight. Nice to have that autumn chill in the air.

[BLI snowman]

41 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Are la Nina's usually front loaded or back loaded? Or always loaded?

Back loaded in the sense that it's pretty unusual to not see sustained troughing February-April in a stronger La Nina. That's the period that's most certain to deliver from a cold anomaly perspective.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

What a nice day. Morning showers then a mix of clouds and sun in the afternoon. 61/49.

Already down to 53 out there, so easily the coolest evening of the fall so far. Could set a new daily low by midnight. Nice to have that autumn chill in the air.

Should be our first 30s party tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Look what’s back for another season!!

Heck ya!

 

00z GFS in 9 minutes

[FroYoBro]

I can’t wait for the time change so we get earlier model runs. 
 

snow. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS

Ridge merger begins in just 24-30 hours. C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, FroYoBro said:

I can’t wait for the time change so we get earlier model runs. 
 

snow. 

No doubt! 00z GFS at 7:28 PM GEFS 9 PM, ECMWF 9:45 PM and runs finishing before midnight. Yes! C'MON!!!!

[Omegaraptor]

CPC analogs for day 6-10 show 2003 twice, 1990, and 1985.

And also 1991 twice, FWIW.

[TacomaWaWx]

52 degrees now. Should end up with a midnight low and the coldest morning of the season so far tomorrow. It had already froze once by this time last year...and had 5 lows in the 30s.  Currently our coldest low so far this season is 47. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 4, 5

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

CPC analogs for day 6-10 show 2003 twice, 1990, and 1985.

And also 1991 twice, FWIW.

Late October 1991 was pretty fun. All downhill from there.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 6, 7 ... The best chilly stuff sliding off to the east.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Late October 1991 was pretty fun. All downhill from there.

Halloween blizzard in Minnesota that year too.  Almost 4 feet of snow in places.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

January

1950

Sorry Tri Cities.

[FroYoBro]

7 minutes ago, iFred said:

January

1950

I would call a state of emergency now just to prepare. God save us all. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

14 minutes ago, iFred said:

February

[Omegaraptor]

16 minutes ago, iFred said:

February

Snowy redwoods?

[Deweydog]

We ALL may find out this January that there is indeed such a thing as too much of a good thing.

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, iFred said:

February

EPS monthlies had me in the dark green last fall. Dagger to the heart.

[Timmy Supercell]

Ya all beat me to it. The whole winter (Dec-Feb) shows above normal! 

[Phil]

The GFS is more progressive than Bernie and AOC combined. What else is new.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS

10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly

[Gradient Keeper]

Temp 48.6. My low temp this morning was 49.1

Winter is near!

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS

10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly

It wants to drop the hammer sooooo bad lol

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Block developing even further west than 12z run.

Day 4, 5, 6

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 7

 

12z Day 7

[Meatyorologist]

This GEM run is going to look nutty. Cold pool is deeper and block is in the perfect position. True eye candy

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This GEM run is going to look nutty. Cold pool is deeper and block is in the perfect position. True eye candy

Not to be a deb, but it looks more progressive to me than the 12z despite a westward shift in the GOA ridge. Positively tilted wave axis early on.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Not to be a deb, but if looks more progressive to me than the 12z. Positively tilted ridge axis.

Yeah it doesn't get the true cold south of the border, but it displaces the North Pole over Canada. Almost sub-500dam heights in the prairie... Super fun to look at

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yeah it doesn't get the true cold south of the border, but it displaces the North Pole over Canada. Almost sub-500dam heights in the prairie... Super fun to look at

That’s true. Cold pool is farther south.

[BLI snowman]

ICON is also on board for a solid cold shot.

[Phil]

CMC might actually pull it off.

A bit of a head scratcher, but it works.

[Anti Marine Layer]

52 minutes ago, iFred said:

January

1950

Won't be 2020 anymore. Maybe some normalcy.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM

10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. Almost gets there. Northern Washington might be fun. Eager to see the EURO later. C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

46 minutes ago, Phil said:

The GFS is more progressive than Bernie and AOC combined. What else is new.

 

Most definitely when compared to the EURO Op/EPS, GEM/CMCE the GFS and GEFS are far more progressive.

 

00z ECMWF in 16 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS

10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. As mentioned the GFS/GEFS remains more progressive than other models.

[MossMan]

Down to 45. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

46F and pleasant.

[Jesse]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

46F and pleasant.

Exactly like a summer evening but with higher moon angles.