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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Can't decide what to have for dinner.

1) Chinese Food

2) Homemade Salad, Bread

3) Popeyes

You pick

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 4 minutes

2) ;)

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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Can't decide what to have for dinner.

1) Chinese Food

2) Homemade Salad, Bread

3) Popeyes

You pick

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 4 minutes

2. Just because that sounds really good right about now

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5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Can't decide what to have for dinner.

1) Chinese Food

2) Homemade Salad, Bread

3) Popeyes

You pick

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 4 minutes

Can't go wrong with 1) after 18z.

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I’m just looking forward to our usual cold easterlies, instead of something like that awful hellish windstorm we had in September :/

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I’m just looking forward to our usual cold easterlies, instead of something like that awful hellish windstorm we had in September 😕

Likewise. If you remember last Fall/Winter we had a lack of easterlies. We did not have a single Columbia Basin cold pool either. I certainly hope that changes this Winter.

 

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 13 minutes

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2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I’m just looking forward to our usual cold easterlies, instead of something like that awful hellish windstorm we had in September 😕

Hopefully we will be able to enjoy our first freeze down here before the month is over.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Likewise. If you remember last Fall/Winter we had a lack of easterlies. We did not have a single Columbia Basin cold pool either. I certainly hope that changes this Winter.

 

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 13 minutes

We had an unusual number of early season cold east wind events late September through late October. But yeah nothing notable after that.

I still can't believe PDX pulled off a monthly MIN/MAX of 52 on September 29 last year. 

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

2) ;)

 

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

2. Just because that sounds really good right about now

Yeah I just might do that. Cook up some chicken breast, season it all fancy and add to it.

2 minutes ago, van city said:

Can't go wrong with 1) after 18z.

Leaning towards the salad, but that sounds good too.... I'm way too hungry right now.

 

6z GFS in 10 hours 53 minutes

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18 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Likewise. If you remember last Fall/Winter we had a lack of easterlies. We did not have a single Columbia Basin cold pool either. I certainly hope that changes this Winter.

 

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 13 minutes

We didn’t have a single gust above 40 all of December and January.

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The 18z looks more realistic, but still gets some nice cool easterly winds going. I think most of us would be pretty happy with a pattern like that to get us ready for the real winter later. (ice age) 

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2C78D14A-7E19-4C79-B656-6277D43D2255.png

Early season cold again...

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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18z GFS Ensembles (850s/Precip)

Portland - Mean temp down to -5c! Majority of members -5c to -10c. Wow

ens_image.php?geoid=135728&var=201&run=1

Seattle - Mean temp down to -5c. Nearly all members -5c to -8c! Wow

ens_image.php?geoid=136221&var=201&run=1

Yakima - Mean temp down to -8c! Nearly all members dipping to -7c to -12c! WOW

ens_image.php?geoid=136300&var=201&run=1

Bozeman - Mean temp -15c! A lot of spread 24th-25th, then after good agreement members -13c to -19c(For you @Kayla!)

ens_image.php?geoid=135413&var=201&run=1

 

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Kold 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow per the 12Z GFS... Portland gets screwed again!    Even in October when blizzards are very common on the west side of the Cascades.   They can't win down there. 

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3724400.png

Gfs at it again😏 

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Can't decide what to have for dinner.

1) Chinese Food

2) Homemade Salad, Bread

3) Popeyes

You pick

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 4 minutes

I know what I am having....

F6BE2C56-E392-4CC5-8EA3-B9454D0E8E7A.jpeg

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2 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GFS Ensembles (850s/Precip)

Portland - Mean temp down to -5c! Majority of members -5c to -10c. Wow

Seattle - Mean temp down to -5c. Nearly all members -5c to -8c! Wow

Yakima - Mean temp down to -8c! Nearly all members dipping to -7c to -12c! WOW

Bozeman - Mean temp -15c! A lot of spread 24th-25th, then after good agreement members -13c to -19c(For you @Kayla!)

 

I appreciate that very much Rob! What a frigid run for any time of the year let alone late October!

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 22.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 14.0"

Coldest high: 9.0º

Coldest low: -5.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Nice evening

image.jpg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Have you guys ever model riden for snow this year before? Ik it’s a long shoot this year but still☃️

Easy there turbo. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Might be a good time to start thinking about checking out the NAM.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like ENSO 3.4 may bottom out around -1.9C in December. Trimonthly average could get as low as -1.7C. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like ENSO 3.4 may bottom out around -1.9C in December. Trimonthly average could get as low as -1.7C. 

You guys will probably get your cool spring. Something like 2011 wouldn't surprise me.

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3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

You guys will probably get your cool spring. Something like 2011 wouldn't surprise me.

That one was pretty ridiculous. We averaged 53/39 in May. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That one was pretty ridiculous. 

Yeah, that one was nuts. We have done well in the spring and fall. We need to get the cold January monkey off our back. I'm talking 1969, 1979, 1957, 1937, 1949, and 1950 type cold. 

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20 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

Yeah, that one was nuts. We have done well in the spring and fall. We need to get the cold January monkey off our back. I'm talking 1969, 1979, 1957, 1937, 1949, and 1950 type cold. 

Not holding my breath. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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28 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

You guys will probably get your cool spring. Something like 2011 wouldn't surprise me.

Poor Tim. 😭

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55 here this evening. Looking forward to some nights down into the 30s. By this time last year we had already had a freeze and 5 nights into the 30s. Some years we’ve had to wait until mid November to dip into the 30s so it’s not all that unusual it hasn’t happened yet. Hopefully we can get some frosty mornings soon. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Pretty crazy 12z run for the GFS today.  Even if we don't get anything that dramatic a legit cold snap looks like a solid possibility now.

I was in Central WA today and could hardly believe how lame the fall color was even over there.  About the weakest I've seen this late in October.  No doubt that will be changing really quick here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I heard the PDO has ventured into its most negative territory since 2014.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty crazy 12z run for the GFS today.  Even if we don't get anything that dramatic a legit cold snap looks like a solid possibility now.

I was in Central WA today and could hardly believe how lame the fall color was even over there.  About the weakest I've seen this late in October.  No doubt that will be changing really quick here.

Trees are starting to turn here, but the colors are blah. The neighborhood aspens are really muddy-looking and disappointing. They’re never the bright, clear gold here in the lowlands that they are in the mountains, but still.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Have you guys ever model riden for snow this early in the year?☃️

This is VERY early for sure.  The Puget Sound area can get snow in October, but it's usually very late month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Trees are starting to turn here, but the colors are blah. The neighborhood aspens are really muddy-looking and disappointing. They’re never the bright, clear gold here in the lowlands that they are in the mountains, but still.

Maybe the cold snap will give us some good color on the cottonwoods.  They can turn quite good sometimes.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty crazy 12z run for the GFS today.  Even if we don't get anything that dramatic a legit cold snap looks like a solid possibility now.

I was in Central WA today and could hardly believe how lame the fall color was even over there.  About the weakest I've seen this late in October.  No doubt that will be changing really quick here.

They were fantastic last year. Colors are definitely not as good as last year either here in Tacoma. 

51C158C1-4CB6-4EB8-AEF6-9C1775E9116C.jpeg

59C9ED33-E91C-4007-9D7E-80AF6D0DB51D.jpeg

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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