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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Sorry guys I ended up getting chased around the outside of the building at work by a whacked out homeless guy on drugs...That was a first! I was mostly worried about the snot coming out of his nose as

Trying to make the best of this weather, got a nice hike on Mt. Adams in on Sunday. Up Stagman Ridge to Horseshoe meadows then down to Lookingglass Lake. Weather was mild but the fall colors were quit

And for anyone who wants a rough PNW guide from the beginning of somewhat reliable records Every 1st year Nina winter: 2016-17- Cold throughout 2010-11- November and late February arcti

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Very real potential for record lows around day 5 with the ECMWF solution.  Continental cold airmass in place with perfect surface pressure gradients.

  • Excited 1
  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Sooooo closeeee to COLD

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 49 minutes

It is cold.

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  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Two separate cold shots this early.  That is VERY impressive.

  • Excited 2
  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yes, but I'm talking 850s -10c....

Do I dare say .......

.... Colder runs ahead? Super jinx potential.

12z GFS in 8 hours 46 minutes

Not out of the question I suppose.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Pretty classic situation for impressive low temps with both cold shots.  The offshore part of the surface high complex is so strong it deadens the east winds, but doesn't kill the offshore flow entirely.  Perfect mix.

  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8

500h_anom.na.png

That's the pattern that October 1916 went into after the initial cold shot.  That month had the most impressive streak of cold mins on record for October.

  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Wonder what the record low 850mb temp is at SLE in October. I bet it’s not much below -5C. The late October 2006 cold snap had some very impressive lows, but was maybe -2C at 850mb over SLE.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Wow!  The ECMWF spits out a high of 43 for SEA on Friday.  It also goes for a low of 26 for McChord a couple of days later,

  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wonder what the record low 850mb temp is at SLE in October. I bet it’s not much below -5C. The late October 2006 cold snap had some very impressive lows, but was maybe -2C at 850mb over SLE.

That 2006 thing was really interesting.  It was a classic clipper and brought in a lot of low level cold air.  There were some all time record lows for the month of October in this general area with that.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That 2006 thing was really interesting.  It was a classic clipper and brought in a lot of low level cold air.  There were some all time record lows for the month of October in this general area with that.

Eugene hit 16 or 17 with that. 

  • Snow 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The EPS is fully on board with the second cold shot now.  Dramatic improvement from previous runs.  This should satisfy our cold craving until the big stuff comes later.  As I've mentioned before La Nina Octobers that manage to pull off significant cold waves are almost without fail very solid winters.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Blocking is alive and well.

This kind of makes you wonder what kind of blocking we may see in the dead of winter.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS is fully on board with the second cold shot now.  Dramatic improvement from previous runs.  This should satisfy our cold craving until the big stuff comes later.  As I've mentioned before La Nina Octobers that manage to pull off significant cold waves are almost without fail very solid winters.

Imagine if this was two months later. Cheers  to the future snow maps☃️

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27 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Imagine if this was two months later. Cheers  to the future snow maps☃️

This could be something like the October 1949 cold wave, but just a week or so later.  Could mean something.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 40

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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We were all super excited about the the cold Oct and late Nov last year and it ended up being the worst winter since I moved to Oregon in 1989. Still way too early.

  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 63F (Oct 10 & 15)
  • Coldest low: 39F (Oct 16)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 0 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We were all super excited about the the cold Oct and late Nov last year and it ended up being the worst winter since I moved to Oregon in 1989. Still way too early.

While it is true that there is no way of telling what the winter will be like based off the weather in October, it is also important to consider that SST's are much different than last year, and therefore the atmosphere will react differently and tend towards different patterns.

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At the very least we should hopefully see our first freeze soon.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 63F (Oct 10 & 15)
  • Coldest low: 39F (Oct 16)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 0 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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51 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We were all super excited about the the cold Oct and late Nov last year and it ended up being the worst winter since I moved to Oregon in 1989. Still way too early.


Yes, October cold isn’t any indication of anything. However, last year wasn’t a Nina so we’ll have to see how things plays out. 

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4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We were all super excited about the the cold Oct and late Nov last year and it ended up being the worst winter since I moved to Oregon in 1989. Still way too early.

That is true enough for western Oregon, but from Seattle north it actually wasn’t a half-bad winter, snow-wise. And there is no real reason to suspect points south will necessarily get skunked this year like they were last.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Early-season cold snaps are associated with bust winters in El Niño years, simply because those tend to be back-loaded with the characteristic mildness and dryness. The association, in other words, is between El Niño and bust winters.

This is not an El Niño year.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

That's the pattern that October 1916 went into after the initial cold shot.  That month had the most impressive streak of cold mins on record for October.

How does this potential cold compare to the cold we saw last October? Seems like last October’s cold records would be hard to beat. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-43

Coldest high-57

Freezes-0

Monthly rainfall-2.81”

Cold season rainfall-2.81”

Snowfall-0.0”

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8 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It was supposed to be closest last Tuesday. Seems to have a pinkish glow.

I was trying to figure out why that star was different in the night sky last week while visiting the Lava Beds area.  At first I thought smoke was causing  the reddish orange glow.  Pretty cool sight and it really stood out! 
 

54*

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I wonder what the pattern was on 10/31/1935. SLE scored 5" of snow that day. With a 42/31 spread. Next day was 38/14, and then a low of 12 on the 3rd. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like Portland (Downtown) had 0.6" of snow on 10/29/1935, but none on the 31st. They did have a 35/29 spread that day. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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