October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

The coverage and apparent depth of the low clouds on the satellite over the Puget Sound region is greater than yesterday and it looks like clearing there will be less likely today.    Pretty typical of October.

[Jesse]

Looks like the 12z GFS has fallen more in line with the Euro with regard to the timing of the ridge breakdown.

Some earlier runs had it hanging on through next weekend. The 12z has it breaking down by Thursday/Friday.

[snow_wizard]

Really impressive 12z run!  A couple of deep / chilly troughs.  Looks like the fun is about to begin.  The trough later in the run is especially nice with a cold front dropping in from the NW and thicknesses dropping below 534 over SEA.  Last night's EPS was looking good too with the PNA mean shown dropping to -2 at one point.

I'm somewhat impressed with how the rather unimpressive clipper which will be swinging through today is shown to drop the 850s quite considerably all things considered.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Really impressive 12z run!  A couple of deep / chilly troughs.  Looks like the fun is about to begin.  The trough later in the run is especially nice with a cold front dropping in from the NW and thicknesses dropping below 534 over SEA.  Last night's EPS was looking good too with the PNA mean shown dropping to -2 at one point.

You’re going to make him start posting warm EPS maps again.

[Blizzard777]

13 hours ago, MossMan said:

Kind of odd watching this after a 70 degree day...But what the hell, it’s 2020 after all...

Currently 57 degrees. 

I was in the mood for THE FOG....then It burned off

ended up  watching “Silver Bullet” 

[snow_wizard]

It looks like we will be putting the coveted strong Nina, positive QBO, deep solar min combo to a real test this winter.  This solar min continues to be a real event with the last 40+ days having only two days with sunspots.  Not at all what the experts were expecting.  At this stage we should be seeing a robust recovery in sunspot numbers, but it's not happening as of yet.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt that in spite of the warmish days the month has been pretty October like so far with widespread heavy fog and low clouds extending well into the morning and even early afternoon.  Today looks a bit darker so we may stay locked in for a longer time today.

[Blizzard777]

Low of 51* and had drizzle fog once again. 
.01 for the day

.02 for the Month! 
Currently fog and 56*

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Totally sunny here today. Fire restrictions eased first of the month and i was actually able to burn the fire pit. Can’t burn the big pile until the 15th. Nice thing is we got those big September rains, lots of new green grass. 

[MossMan]

Very soupy and 54 currently. 
low of 50. 
Was planning on going to the lake house to get the jetski out of the water for the year but perhaps I will just winterize the boat today since it’s already at home. Major life decisions I need to work though today...

[Winterdog]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Very soupy and 54 currently. 
low of 50. 
Was planning on going to the lake house to get the jetski out of the water for the year but perhaps I will just winterize the boat today since it’s already at home. Major life decisions I need to work though today...

You are in Snohomish county right?  I see there is still a burn ban despite having 4” of rain recently.  I’ve got a lot of autumn burning and polluting to do.  Very inconsiderate of them.

[Jesse]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Totally sunny here today. Fire restrictions eased first of the month and i was actually able to burn the fire pit. Can’t burn the big pile until the 15th. Nice thing is we got those big September rains, lots of new green grass. 

I love you Andrew.

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, Acer said:

You are in Snohomish county right?  I see there is still a burn ban despite having 4” of rain recently.  I’ve got a lot of autumn burning and polluting to do.  Very inconsiderate of them.

Yep I’m about a half mile from the county line. Yeah it’s odd having a burn ban still with how wet it has been. 

[ttt]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Wetter than last nights run, with more rain on the way after this frame.

[snow_wizard]

Nice improvement on the ECMWF.  It doesn't dig the trough nearly so deep off the coast as some previous runs before swinging it in.  Way better for cool temps.

[snow_wizard]

Big fan of the Euro on this run.  Looks like things might get pretty chilly indeed as high pressure takes over the GOA late in the run.

[Jesse]

That is one pretty Euro run. Almost seems too good to be true.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

That is one pretty Euro run. Almost seems too good to be true.

You knew the flip had to come with a borderline strong Nina in effect now.  It's amazing how often September ends up warm with a developing Nina.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You knew the flip had to come with a borderline strong Nina in effect now.  It's amazing how often September ends up warm with a developing Nina.

Not gonna buy it just yet. We shall see.

[snow_wizard]

I'm hoping we can pull off a nice period of chilly / clear weather a bit later in the month after the cool and wet weather coming up.  Could be a classic October in the works.  We are certainly checking the foggy morning box so far with lots of variety coming up.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Not gonna buy it just yet. We shall see.

I get it.  Once we really flip the PNA we can be more confident.  Wouldn't surprise me to see some great runs coming up once the pattern flip happens...if it does.

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I get it.  Once we really flip the PNA we can be more confident.  Wouldn't surprise me to see some great runs coming up once the pattern flip happens...if it does.

My gut is telling me much of the month ends up warm. Mostly thanks to the mins. I could see us getting into a stormier and wetter pattern later on in the month but days and nights could stay relatively mild.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Wetter than last nights run, with more rain on the way after this frame.

Amazing. That's some October 2012/2016 type stuff there. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here is the 15 day EPS.  Also showing it since I wanted to see how the new format works with GIFs.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Big fan of the Euro on this run.  Looks like things might get pretty chilly indeed as high pressure takes over the GOA late in the run.

Love the overall blockiness developing. 

This is gonna be a fun fall and winter.

 

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and 70 degrees up here... 66 in the valley.     Inversion is stronger today but you can't really tell because it sunny in the valley as well.    I just mowed the lawn and it was really warm.   It felt like summer out there working except for the lower sun angle.   Glad we got one more day without the chilly fog.    

[Fircrest]

Can someone send me the link to the Wetterzentrale GFS ensemble for Seattle? The site where I used to see it no longer updates. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA was at 55 and still fogged in at 1 p.m.

 

[Fircrest]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA was at 55 and still fogged in at 1 p.m.

 

it's 58 and foggy still here in Fircrest (West Tacoma)  My daughter is hiking Mt Si today.  Should be sunny there!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Fircrest said:

it's 58 and foggy still here in Fircrest (West Tacoma)  My daughter is hiking Mt Si today.  Should be sunny there!

She will be sweating and it gets warmer as you go up... just a spectacular fall day out here.

[Blizzard777]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunny and 70 degrees up here... 66 in the valley.     Inversion is stronger today but you can't really tell because it sunny in the valley as well.    I just mowed the lawn and it was really warm.   It felt like summer out there working except for the lower sun angle.   Glad we got one more day without the chilly fog.    

Down in the valley

the fog is thick

Halloween shows are playing

while Tim bathes in the heat

57* and no sign of the fog yielding as of yet

[Jesse]

58 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This is gonna be a fun fall and winter.

 

Nah. Those two things are mutually exclusive.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Spent the morning in Port Townsend waiting for the fog to clear so I could catch a ferry. At 11:00 it was still gunked in, no signs of clearing, so gave up and made a detour south to Kingston.

At 14:00 KBLI was reporting fog and 55°F.

Argh… The Kingston/Edmonds and Bainbridge/Seattle ferries can run in dense fog… Why not Port Townsend/Coupeville?

Did get some time this morning when I had a chunk of Fort Worden basically to myself. That, plus the fog and the autumn chill matched all the derelict military structures quite well. Ghosts of the past in the mists of autunm.

[Dave]

70 degrees. The smoke has vacated the area. Crystal clear skies. Awesome.

[Blizzard777]

Up periscope

Denied! 

[snow_wizard]

Definite October day today.  Fog and low clouds through the day and only 62 in the mid afternoon.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Really looking forward to some wet fall weather and no smoke. Been stuck in the crud all day here. Really good looking model runs if you like cool fall weather.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

 

This is the link somebody requested for Seattle 850s.  I'm having real trouble posting right now so hopefully this works.  https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=136221&lid=ENS&bw=

[Blizzard777]

Smoke down south while foggy around the Sound.  I’ll take the fog 

58*