October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Snow for Portland on Friday evening...

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh my god.

 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Saturday morning... per 12Z GFS.

[TacomaWaWx]

If there’s any year we would get an October snow event...it would be 2020. 

[Jesse]

Low of 52 here this morning. 55 currently.

There are some cool looking, rippling clouds in the SE sky.
 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tough act to pull off for October.  But it is 2020.

[Randyc321]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Saturday morning... per 12Z GFS.

Gonna go North.  Right Mossman?

Go North.   

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows mid to upper 40s for highs across western WA on Saturday with wall-to-wall sunshine and a north wind.  

[El_Nina]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh my god.

 

Your welcome.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Saturday morning... per 12Z GFS.

I find this southerly trend disturbing.

[Jesse]

Going chanterelle picking in the north coast range today. Should be good weather for it.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I find this southerly trend disturbing.

The GFS is usually too aggressive with cold air at this range.    It will probably trend north over the next couple days.

[snow_wizard]

Hole crap the 12z GFS is cold!  Some lowland snow in places and thickness values drop below 528 over SEA.  An actual Arctic outbreak surface pressure signature.  This one could easily rival 1949 if it verifies.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS is usually too aggressive with cold air at this range.    It will probably trend north over the next couple days.

Honestly, though, even if it doesn’t, I can’t complain that much. I got the goods last January when Portland basically got shafted (again).

[TacomaWaWx]

Lol I’ll believe it when I see it. Kind of fun to imagine though. Would be interesting to see western Oregon go from massive wildfires to snow in about 6 weeks time. I’m pretty sure the gfs is just drunk. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Going chanterelle picking in the north coast range today. Should be good weather for it.

It’s been a good year for them up my way. Hope that holds for your area, too.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Tough act to pull off for October.  But it is 2020.

Do not underestimate the 2020 factor.  Besides all of the general crap my life has been surreal for the past few months for reasons I'm not going elaborate on right now.  It seems that others have been going through similar.  Then of course you have the outlandish events that have been beyond anyone's control.

[jakerepp]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Saturday morning... per 12Z GFS.

Puget sound Winter cancel.

 

 Am I doing this right.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol I’ll believe it when I see it. Kind of fun to imagine though. Would be interesting to see western Oregon go from massive wildfires to snow in about 6 weeks time. I’m pretty sure the gfs is just drunk. 

There have been a lot of other models showing similar.  My guess is it ends up a top 10% event for this early in the season.  That is a whole lot different than top 10% after October 25 though.

[FroYoBro]

Just looked. Lock it in. Snow on pumpkins. 

[Jesse]

Just now, FroYoBro said:

Just looked. Lock it in. Snow on pumpkins. 

Will probably be all melted by Halloween

Ugh

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There have been a lot of other models showing similar.  My guess is it ends up a top 10% event for this early in the season.  That is a whole lot different than top 10% after October 25 though.

Idk man still 6 days out. I’ll be watching to see but I’m thinking the gfs is just doing what it did in January. 

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s been a good year for them up my way. Hope that holds for your area, too.

They got off to a slow start this year but I guess they have really taken off the last few weeks.

We know a spot between Timber Jct and Seaside that is pretty good.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the ICON is trending the other way since yesterday.

Now its totally dry for Friday and Saturday with the cold air sliding east.

12Z ICON yesterday morning on top... and the new 12Z ICON on the bottom.

[TT-SEA]

And the 12Z GEM is too far north...

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS also shows some crazy snow totals across the Midwest as well...

[Jesse]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh my god.

 

Don’t know if you considered it yet but that would be pretty crazy for this time of year if it verified, Andrew

[umadbro]

Probably a good bet to completely disregard the GFS this year

[snow_wizard]

According to the reanalysis site the 850s in 1949 dropped to around -4.5 over SEA with an identical surface pressure signature to what the models are showing for late this week so similar numbers should be possible.  In this case we will be close to a week later.

[Jesse]

Just now, umadbro said:

Probably a good bet to completely disregard the GFS this year

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Probably a good bet to completely disregard the GFS this year

The Canadian has had runs that have been just as cold or colder.  Even the ECMWF has hinted at some lowland snow.

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

According to the reanalysis site the 850s in 1949 dropped to around -4.5 over SEA with an identical surface pressure signature to what the models are showing for late this week so similar numbers should be possible.  In this case we will be close to a week later.

Will be? Don’t do this to yourself man.

[El_Nina]

5 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Probably a good bet to completely disregard the GFS this year

Making great updates. Will be the best of the best. 

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Idk man still 6 days out. I’ll be watching to see but I’m thinking the gfs is just doing what it did in January. 

Everyone is forgetting about the first cold shot which comes in just a few days.  That one is almost as cold in some ways.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Will be? Don’t do this to yourself man.

I never said it will happen.  I said should be possible.  I think we are going to be happy with this.  Looking at past La Nina October's it's very rare to see cold on even the scale of the more conservative models at this point.

[Jesse]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I never said it will happen.  I said should be possible.  I think we are going to be happy with this.  Looking at past La Nina October's it's very rare to see cold on even the scale of the more conservative models at this point.

I would agree with that. Even a brush with cold that gives us some frosty mornings would be pretty nice. And far from a bad sign heading into a strong La Niña.

I would hate to see people get to the point where they are disappointed with this event if we don’t get widespread snow to sea level though. There is like a 1% chance of that happening.

 

[seattleweatherguy]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Canadian has had runs that have been just as cold or colder.  Even the ECMWF has hinted at some lowland snow.

Id be happy to see flurries in a conversion zone next weekend 

[FroYoBro]

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And the 12Z GEM is too far north...

 

Wow, who would have guessed that the extreme GFS model run may be incorrect? 

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Wow, who would have guessed that the extreme GFS model run may be incorrect? 

We are so lucky to have someone here who is not AFRAID to show the TRUTH.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I would agree with that. Even a brush with cold that gives us some frosty mornings would be pretty nice. And far from a bad sign heading into a strong La Niña.

I would hate to see people get to the point where they are disappointed with this event if we don’t get widespread snow to sea level though. There is like a 1% chance of that happening.

 

I think somewhere in the lowlands seeing some wet snow is actually somewhat possible if that low tracks so far south on Friday like some model runs have shown.  You are probably right about 1% for seeing major accumulations though...maybe 5%.