October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[MossMan]

Up to 1.36” on the day. 
49 and heavy drizzle. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We are so lucky to have someone here who is not AFRAID to show the TRUTH.

The thing is there have been GEM runs that have been more insane.  Just hate seeing the GFS bashed so much when it's not alone.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Id be happy to see flurries in a conversion zone next weekend 

There is no "convergence" zone shown for next weekend at this point.     That does not happen with dry air and a northerly wind.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The thing is there have been GEM runs that have been more insane.  Just hate seeing the GFS bashed so much when it's not alone.

That is really something important to hate.   

[Deweydog]

Would be nice to know if there have been any conference calls about next weekend.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

There is no "convergence" zone shown for next weekend at this point.     That does not happen with dry air and a northerly wind.

The best shot for snow would be either from overrunning when the low is south of us or during the backwash northerly surge behind the low as it exits.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Would be nice to know if there have been any conference calls about next weekend.

I would guess not, but I would think some of the GEM and GFS runs have raised some eyebrows at least.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

49 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Idk man still 6 days out. I’ll be watching to see but I’m thinking the gfs is just doing what it did in January. 

Seriously, this. I think it’s safe to conclude that we’re in for a spell of significantly cooler weather, and at this stage that’s about it.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is really something important to hate.   

Good point.  Hate was probably the wrong word.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seriously, this. I think it’s safe to conclude that we’re in for a spell of significantly cooler weather, and at this stage that’s about it.

Probably true.  That's what 1949 was too.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Up to 1.36” on the day. 
49 and heavy drizzle. 

Yeah... radar does not accurately depict the situation.   

I looked at the radar and thought maybe the rain is about to let up here... but then looked upstream at Bellevue where the radar does not even show it raining.      

 

[Jesse]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seriously, this. I think it’s safe to conclude that we’re in for a spell of significantly cooler weather, and at this stage that’s about it.

Indubitably. Although even that, in and of itself, is simply academic at this juncture. Quite.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS also shows some crazy snow totals across the Midwest as well...

This is actually possible

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is actually possible

Looks like my relatives in Minnesota are right in the bullseye! Perhaps it’s time for a visit. 

[TT-SEA]

Seattle on top... Portland on the bottom.    Just a bit different.  

[Jesse]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks like my relatives in Minnesota are right in the bullseye! Perhaps it’s time for a visit. 

Inlaws relatives in Billings, Montana were posting pics of snow on facebook this morning. It looks like they are in for a stretch of pretty cold and wintry weather this week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seattle on top... Portland on the bottom.    Just a bit different.  

Looks like Seattle here. 

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Seattle here. 

Luckily we should look like that later today too. These sunbreaks are getting old.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is about to start! 

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is about to start! 

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

[snow_wizard]

12z GFS ensemble is really nippy.  The operational bottoms out at -7 for SEA and the mean bottoms out at -4.6 with a number of members solidly below -5.  About as cold as it gets this early if it verifies.

[Jesse]

Heh.

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

> Model we generally discount but enjoy sharing when there is cold and snow

Soon-to-be-mod-previewed: All of the other models are warmer and worse.

> The model we usually discount shows warmer solutions and snow elsewhere so we don’t talk about it

Soon-to-be-mod-previewed: Check out this amazing GFS run! 40ft of snow in Arizona, ice storms in New Orleans, and glaciers are reclaiming the Great Lakes. At least with highs 80s, I can enjoy some lake side activities.

‘tis the season

Everyone has been very well behaved today. Probably because winter hasn't officially started yet! 

[El_Nina]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is actually possible

Wrong.

[snow_wizard]

BTW...the GEM is colder than the GFS again on the 12z.  528 thickness line drops way into Oregon.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

Wrong.

It's 2020.  The impossible is possible this year.  Being real though a significant snow event before the 26th or so would be unprecedented in the period of record.  Fun to think about though!

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Everyone has been very well behaved today. Probably because winter hasn't officially started yet! 

Good point.  This is just plain fun to consider the possible outcomes.  It's too early for there to be anyy real skin in the game yet.  That having been said a cold snap like some model runs are showing would be something special.

[snow_wizard]

The models really do agree on that low swinging inland south of Seattle on Friday some real impressive backwash cold / CAA behind the low.  Never seen anything like it so early.

[High Desert Mat?]

52 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Would be nice to know if there have been any conference calls about next weekend.

I’ve heard there has been one or two with the Culver guy. Have not yet heard the details. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF already farther west on Wednesday morning than previous runs.

[snow_wizard]

The Euro looks fantastic at day 3.  Best yet.

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good point.  This is just plain fun to consider the possible outcomes.  It's too early for there to be anyy real skin in the game yet.  That having been said a cold snap like some model runs are showing would be something special.

As long as you are having fun, I love seeing the possibilities...I just know in the past you stop having fun at certain points...

[MossMan]

Up to 50! I now have breezy drizzle. Up to 1.39” on the day. 
Was at the lake a bit ago...Looks like my uncle forgot to pull the plugs in my fishing boat when he used it to paint the sides of the dock. Lots of water! 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Breezy and rainy here. Finally getting some rainfall here in the rain shadow. 

Had some pretty heavy rain here last night between 12~2am, with nearly 0.8" overnight. Just drizzle here now.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Up to 50! I now have breezy drizzle. Up to 1.39” on the day. 
Was at the lake a bit ago...Looks like my uncle forgot to pull the plugs in my fishing boat when he used it to paint the sides of the dock. Lots of water! 

It's both a boat and a rain gauge.

[snow_wizard]

The 3 to 5 day period on the ECMWF is way colder than previous runs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Omg it’s happening guyz. 

[snow_wizard]

Day 6 on the ECMWF puts more emphasis on continental cold as opposed to the wetter low pressure scenario.  Really chilly at face value.

[TT-SEA]

Much less precip with the Friday into Saturday system on the 12Z ECMWF...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Much less precip with the Friday into Saturday system on the 12Z ECMWF...

So tired of dry arctic blasts.