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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Our access to Arctic air continues to be further and further cut off year after year according to Cliff Mass.

Eventually you are going to wear yourself out 😘 

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The surface pressure gradients continue to look incredible for max cooling for the Puget Sound area Saturday night.  That one has potential to be really cold.  Looking pretty likely it stays clear for Sunday night too.  Should be impressive.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I predict the first shot of real lowland snow will be around December 12th (i.e. ~50 days after the onset of this cold period, October 23rd).

It'll be a wet November though. :(

 

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1 minute ago, luminen said:

I predict the first shot of real lowland snow will be around December 12th (i.e. ~50 days after the onset of this cold period, October 23rd).

It'll be a wet November though. :(

 

November cancel???

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7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I don't agree with him on that.

I don't either.  There is zero proof of that.  We just had an historic Feb in WA the winter before last and OR had one in 2014.  I still say the recent solar grand maximum is responsible for the general warmth since the mid 1980s.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

oops

 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Offshore ridge stays amplified for a longer time on the ECMWF tonight.  Good to keep the cold nights going.  Still time for that to get even better in future runs also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, luminen said:

I predict the first shot of real lowland snow will be around December 12th (i.e. ~50 days after the onset of this cold period, October 23rd).

It'll be a wet November though. :(

 

I’m gonna burn a tire every day starting 11-1 until we get our first 6+ inch snowfall.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah. Can we just get a freaking block to hold for more than a day? before it's pushed east. Annoying.

6z GFS in 3 hours

We were hoping for Mike Tyson, but instead we got Glass Joe. 😒

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The Euro still goes for highs in the mid 40s on Friday for this area.  That is going to feel downright cold.  Still looking like mid 20 to low 30s Saturday night.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8

500h_anom.na.png


Good inversion pattern.  It's quite interesting how this looks nothing like last nights run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Funny he posts this just before a significant cold snap.  It kind of undermines the whole premise.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

.... And the very exciting Day 10

500h_anom.na.png

I want this over a flatter mild / wet pattern.  At least the ridge will bring an inversion so late in the season.  I have no complaints.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Funny he posts this just before a significant cold snap.  It kind of undermines the whole premise.

Coldest Cinco de Mayo on record!!!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Another thing...it's October.  I'm thankful for the cold wave that is coming.  The big longer lasting stuff will come later.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Funny he posts this just before a significant cold snap.  It kind of undermines the whole premise.

The blog post was from 2018.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Snowdrift said:

I have a feeling this winter will be blocky. Blocky is a good thing.

Indeed.  In the winter a big cold wave followed by a ridge right over us is pure gold if there is snow on the ground.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The blog post was from 2018.

I guess I should have looked.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Snowdrift said:

It looks like a dense fog pattern.

Not what it shows... and the ECMWF is pretty good at inversions.     500mb pattern will probably change of course.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-4016000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Exhausted. Good night all

Root for improved blocking on 6z, 12z runs!

6z NAM in 35 minutes

6z GFS in 2 hours 22 minutes

12z NAM in 6 hours 35 minutes

12z GFS in 8 hours 22 minutes

12z GEM/CMC in 8 hours 54 minutes

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 39 minutes

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Not what it shows... and the ECMWF is pretty good at inversions.     500mb pattern will probably change of course.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-4016000.png

We often struggle in Spokane. From late October until early to mid February. We'll get socked in with low clouds and fog. I always welcome the sunshine if I can get it.

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Might have been overlooked... but the current pattern is also very blocky.

Of course this is a terrible pattern for the Seattle area with a persistent c-zone.     Can't wait until things start moving again regardless of what that means.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_1.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

We often struggle in Spokane. From late October until early to mid February. We'll get socked in with low clouds and fog. I always welcome the sunshine if I can get it.

People think eastern WA is so sunny in the winter compared to the west side... but that is often not the case.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

People think eastern WA is so sunny in the winter compared to the west side... but that is often not the case.

We have the same general climate, but we are farther east with a little bit of elevation. 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

People think eastern WA is so sunny in the winter compared to the west side... but that is often not the case.

  • Spokane- 171 sunny days per year
  • Ellensburg- 204 sunny days per year
  • Tri-Cities- 300 sunny days per year
  • Ocean Shores- 129 sunny days per year
  • Seattle- 152 sunny days per year
  • Forks- 131 sunny days per year
  • Bellingham- 157 sunny days per year
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Little fun fact

"Meanwhile, the absolute wettest places in the continental United States are located in the Pacific Northwest, with Washington State's Aberdeen Reservoir taking the top spot with an average yearly precipitation of 130.6 inches (3317mm)". From tripsavvy.com

 https://www.tripsavvy.com/wettest-places-in-the-usa-4135027

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32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

People think eastern WA is so sunny in the winter compared to the west side... but that is often not the case.

Case in point, the Apple Cup from 2018.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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51 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:
  • Spokane- 171 sunny days per year
  • Ellensburg- 204 sunny days per year
  • Tri-Cities- 300 sunny days per year
  • Ocean Shores- 129 sunny days per year
  • Seattle- 152 sunny days per year
  • Forks- 131 sunny days per year
  • Bellingham- 157 sunny days per year

The United States average is 205. 

      On average during the months of November, December, January and February, Spokane is cloudy 70% of the time. 

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For what it's worth (just about nothing...), the 06z NAM is markedly improved over the 00z, though blocking is further east, so it could just be a flukey run. Still got another 36 hours before the Aleutian low begins taking form. Go GFS...?

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2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Little fun fact

"Meanwhile, the absolute wettest places in the continental United States are located in the Pacific Northwest, with Tim’s backyard taking the top spot with an average yearly precipitation of 130.6 inches (3317mm)". From tripsavvy.com

 https://www.tripsavvy.com/wettest-places-in-the-usa-4135027

Fixed, for the sake of accuracy.

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Overnight GFS looks about the same.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Mixed signals on the GFS! Down to 43. Sadly one of our coolest lows of the month so far. Still above average!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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