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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

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57 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z ECMWF in 51 minutes. C'mon block! C'MON!!!!

I blame the Gorton's fisherman. He's tooling around in the Gulf of Alaska in his boat. I know he's responsible for all of the tomfoolery.

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

With what the models are showing right now, they would probably get pretty close to freezing. Still a ways to go though.

I'm being hyperbolic of course but felt like last year was a near constant reminder that GFS surface temps were way off, especially with backdoor cold, until like..24-36 hours out. 

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Snow for Randy on the 12Z ECMWF... big surprise there!  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3515600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

I'm being hyperbolic of course but felt like last year was a near constant reminder that GFS surface temps were way off, especially with backdoor cold, until like..24-36 hours out. 

I know what you mean. I guess one difference this time is there is support from the other models at least.

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11 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

that's a mega score pattern for entire nw if this was dec 15-feb 1.

I was thinking the same thing...how cold would we be looking if this was the pattern 3 months from now?

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Why does the FV3 exaggerate temps then if it's not an issue with terrain?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 - Past 4 runs. 850s. Significant10-20-10 12z ECMWF 850s Day 5 past 4 runs.gif colder trend

 

Solid mountain wave/CCG event.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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11 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Shows over a foot for my location.  Guessing it will be a lot lower than that.  Marginal temps will probably cut down on the actual accumulation.

Yep, we'll get some snow without much accumulation. You'll probably pick up more.

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Sunday 11 AM 850s bottom out here

850th.us_nw.png

Straight up easterly gradients right down the McKenzie. Wow!!!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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The colder solutions pay dividends for next week... previous ECMWF runs showed the jet plowing into WA early next week already.     The last couple runs have been much drier.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, iFred said:

 

That does show Whatcom County getting something, but given how warm the ground is, even if it materializes it will be just flakes in the air that melt as they fall for all except that one favored spot the map shows getting several inches.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Outstanding trends. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Having to provide snow maps from my family and friends in Minnesota... I have not heard one positive comment about what is happening there today!  

 

C1673.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Having to provide snow maps from my family and friends in Minnesota... I have not heard one positive comment about what is happening there today!  

 

C1673.jpg

Early season snow can be rough. It catches people off guard. 

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I have an overnight layover in Denver Sunday night. Looks like I may see some snow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Last 3 runs of the EPS for Sunday morning, 4AM.  First is the EPS from todays 12Z, then last nights 0Z, then yesterdays 12Z

image.thumb.png.bf28ae49e70c32f9f03ee06a9ab0a88b.png

image.thumb.png.12e4990007dcf2f58f39526671ec21cb.png

image.thumb.png.4f51d4ec7eed6c5e0eb663a1a79232f6.png

Excellent trends continue! Thanks for posting the EPS. It's not available on Pivotal until 1:30 PM.

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