October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Requiem]

I think the fact that we're even talking about the possibility of cold and snow rn is really cool!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 850s

Not bitter, but that's pretty solid backdoor cold and impressive for pre-Halloween.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks pretty much the same for here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 past 4 runs

[Phil]

Potent intraseasonal wave projected on the 12z EPS heading into late October and early November. This would destructively interfere with the La Niña Walker/Hadley system over the Pacific and should associate with a rise in the AAM integral. First anomaly I’ve seen so far w/ respect to the evolution of the low pass/background regimen.

Might suggest a warmer and more zonal (El Niño-like) pattern takes hold for 2-3 weeks in November. Probably flips back around thanksgiving.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Coldest 850s is around 8 AM Saturday

[Deweydog]

Just imagine how cold next weekend might be if not for The BLOB...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6, 7

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Non-event

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Just imagine how cold next weekend might be if not for The BLOB...

Massive amounts of death and suffering from a flash freeze event. It’s almost like some kind of weather god who likes warm anomalies is saving us. 

[snow drift]

13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

GFS looks like it is going to be further east with the cold trough. We shall see...

I thought the same thing. I was hoping I was wrong.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Non-event

I wouldn't call it exactly that. Good chance of widespread temps near/below freezing. Chilly gusty east winds Gorge/PDX.

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 23 minutes

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Non-event

Weenie tags coming Fred? 

[Phil]

The -23C 850mb contour is showing up over MT/WY. Brrr.

[snow drift]

Just now, Phil said:

The -23C 850mb contour is showing up over MT/WY. Brrr.

That's crazy for October.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

By snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8, 9'er

[Kayla]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

The -23C 850mb contour is showing up over MT/WY. Brrr.

Glad I soaked in all the bare ground that I could on Friday. See you in April grass!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 - Model comparison - For what its worth, the GEM is considerably stronger with high-latitude blocking and further west than the GFS

GFS

GEM

[GHweatherChris]

Crazy winds!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Crazy winds!

 

I knew it. I swear to God. After the first 3-4 seconds. I was like, "Gonna Rick Roll. Watch"

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

By snow.

Bi snow?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 4.5 ---- That's new. The cold trough is much further west. Digging way out. Too far west probably.

[Gradient Keeper]

or not. Colder than 12z

[Gradient Keeper]

Really eager to see the EURO hoping its stronger with the high-latitude blocking. C'MON!!!!

1 hour until showtime!

[Gradient Keeper]

It's a lot of fun tracking this potential cold shot and quite uncommon to do so pre-Halloween.

6z NAM in 2 hours 51 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 6 - Let's repeat this many, many more times this Winter!

[Omegaraptor]

36 minutes ago, Phil said:

Potent intraseasonal wave projected on the 12z EPS heading into late October and early November. This would destructively interfere with the La Niña Walker/Hadley system over the Pacific and should associate with a rise in the AAM integral. First anomaly I’ve seen so far w/ respect to the evolution of the low pass/background regimen.

Might suggest a warmer and more zonal (El Niño-like) pattern takes hold for 2-3 weeks in November. Probably flips back around thanksgiving.

 

Flips back just in time for winter. Hopefully this finally puts out fires down in CA.

[SouthHillFrosty]

GEM is the only accurate model. Prove me wrong

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM is very different after Day 6 compared to all other models previous runs.

Day 7-9 GIF. Ridge backs off further west instead of drifting over us, and NW flow takes hold. Looking rather Nina-ish

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEM is very different after Day 6 compared to all other models previous runs.

Day 7-9 GIF. Ridge backs off further west instead of drifting over us, and NW flow takes hold. Looking rather Nina-ish

Gem is amazing. 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gem is amazing. 

I thought you'd like it. NOW let's get the EURO to stop screwing around and join the Cheese Train. I dunno just made that up. Not real good I agree. I can do better. I agree with that too.

[Deweydog]

Could end up being a similar progression to that which occurred in late October 1995.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cheese train? Need a gif or pic.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Cheese train? Need a gif or pic.

Uhhh.... best I can do

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Uhhh.... best I can do

Your insensitivity toward those in the lactose intolerant community is appalling.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Your insensitivity toward those in the lactose intolerant community is appalling.

Oh, no I covered that. The cheese was made with lactose free milk from lactose free cows. We're good.

12z NAM In 7 hours 54 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z UW WRF-GFS

Is this October or December? Impressive! I hope it pans out! C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

SNOW!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 2