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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

500h_anom.na.png

Some 70s as we get into November? It's happened before.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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The ECMWF surface maps keep things pretty cool through Tuesday of next week now.  Still a nice cold snap in the works.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Some 70s as we get into November? It's happened before.

Might want to switch to the weather map interpretation simulator for a few days.

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

500h_anom.na.png

The big message is way more amplification next week than previously shown.  As you know we can be cold with high pressure very near or over us in late October.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

Might want to switch to the weather map interpretation simulator for a few days.

He obviously doesn't understand what inversion means.  Especially with cold air already in place.  I'm thrilled with the way things look right now.  Just feeling the chill tonight already has me itching for more.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

12z runs bring back the goods in a big way tomorrow! C'MON!!!! Maybe

6z NAM in 38 minutes

As I've said even what is shown tonight is cold.  People might be expecting too much for this early.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

He obviously doesn't understand what inversion means.  Especially with cold air already in place.  I'm thrilled with the way things look right now.  Just feeling the chill tonight already has me itching for more.

Really nothing wrong with sunny and mild in late October it's nice weather to be out in and for Halloween. The cold is better in mid November onwards.

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Just now, Weather1011 said:

Really nothing wrong with sunny and mild in late October it's nice weather to be out in and for Halloween. The cold is better in mid November onwards.

I think there’s really nothing wrong with liking brussel sprouts but not everyone agrees.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I think there’s really nothing wrong with liking brussel sprouts but not everyone agrees.

I'm sure we can all agree for snow perspectives, It would be better seeing this pattern a few weeks from now onwards.

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13 minutes ago, Weather1011 said:

I'm sure we can all agree for snow perspectives, It would be better seeing this pattern a few weeks from now onwards.

I’ll take it now and later too. There aren’t really any years in our history where we’ve torched 80% of the year only to switch to unbroken cold and snowy goodness November-February. 

Many of our best years had overall active and/or cool and troughy themes leading up to and surrounding mid winter paydirt. That even includes recent great years like 2016 and 2008. 

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’ll take it now and later too. There aren’t really any years in our history where we’ve torched 80% of the year only to switch to unbroken cold and snowy goodness November-February.

I never said that lol I just prefer snow over dry and cold. So if we end up seeing some sunny and warm weather later I wouldn't mind.

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3 minutes ago, Weather1011 said:

I never said that lol I just prefer snow over dry and cold. So if we end up seeing some sunny and warm weather later I wouldn't mind.

Nice! I would hate it. Hopefully from this point forward it’s either cold or storming for awhile. We’ve seen more than enough warm and sunny weather lately.

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With fewer cold anomalies annually it makes no sense to not root for them until it's late Nov-Mid Feb and preferably Dec-Jan.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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50 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No way it's been that cold before the 25th.  1949 bottomed out around -4.5 from what I can tell.  That's kind of the gold standard for pre October 25.  After the 25th is a way different ballgame.

I will say that it's possible the 850s have dropped to around -6 in maritime polar situation before the 25th before.  1956 and 1985 are a couple that come to mind for that.

I was thinking -6 might be about as cold as it gets this time of year. But I know there have been a couple legit late October arctic outbreaks in Bellingham so thought it possible one snuck closer to -9.

Amazing that just 3 weeks later we are capable of highs in the teens and 850's well below -15.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Don’t you spend all summer bitching that you wish it was cooler than average? I would know, I do too. ;)

Doesn't change the fact that I'd still "sacrifice" respite from increasingly oppressive heat every year in order to cash in on our fewer cold waves in the winter.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

I was thinking -6 might be about as cold as it gets this time of year. But I know there have been a couple legit late October arctic outbreaks in Bellingham so thought it possible one snuck closer to -9.

Not any of those were before the 25th.

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BOLD PREDICTION ALERT!

Both KPDX and KSEA will receive a minimum of 1" of snow by Thanksgiving with a white x-mas for KSEA with snow starting before midnight of the 24th. 

If I'm wrong I'll let Rob kick me in the balls (with his good leg)

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1 minute ago, Jbolin said:

BOLD PREDICTION ALERT!

Both KPDX and KSEA will receive a minimum of 1" of snow by Thanksgiving with a white x-mas for KSEA with snow starting before midnight of the 24th. 

If Im wrong I'll let Rob kick me in the balls (with his good leg)

Whatever...  Rob doesn’t have a good leg!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Doesn't change the fact that I'd still "sacrifice" respite from increasingly oppressive heat every year in order to cash in on our fewer cold waves in the winter.

Good thing none of our opinions affect anything in terms of what the weather does.

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2 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

BOLD PREDICTION ALERT!

Both KPDX and KSEA will receive a minimum of 1" of snow by Thanksgiving with a white x-mas for KSEA with snow starting before midnight of the 24th. 

If Im wrong I'll let Rob kick me in the balls (with his good leg)

Very bold indeed! I promise I'll go easy on the ole sack IF you're wrong.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Good thing none of our opinions affect anything in terms of what the weather does.

Would never profess to have any control over what happens in our planet's atmosphere. Hopes not expectations.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Would never profess to have any control over what happens in our planet's atmosphere. Hopes not expectations.

I don’t see what any of this has to do with crying endlessly about a somewhat interesting late October pattern based on some voodoo superstitions. 

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13 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Nice! I would hate it. Hopefully from this point forward it’s either cold or storming for awhile. We’ve seen more than enough warm and sunny weather lately.

Always down voting my posts for no reason lmao Anyways yeah a storm pattern is bound to happen eventually. I just never enjoy summer heat, it's always nice in late September and October in my opinion.

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I don’t see what any of this has to do with crying endlessly about a somewhat interesting late October pattern based on some voodoo superstitions. 

Crying endlessly? I'm not weeping on the keyboard over our warming climate. I save that for when it takes me 15-20 mins to type out a message, sometimes (instead of just getting angry) Just hoping we can have the weighted dice rolls against us fall in our favor at a favorable time.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Crying endlessly? I'm not weeping on the keyboard over our warming climate. Just hoping we can have the weighted dice rolls against us fall in our favor at a favorable time.

Seems like you have been acting like it’s a very bad thing and have been way more negative than usual the last few days. It is what it is. I agree with the last sentence overall so let’s end on that note :wub:

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Crying endlessly? I'm not weeping on the keyboard over our warming climate. Just hoping we can have the weighted dice rolls against us fall in our favor at a favorable time.

It's hard enough to get cold around here, Let alone snow.

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Just now, Jesse said:

The trouble is it isn’t nearly that simple. 

That we have fewer cold anomalies than we used to?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The trouble is it isn’t nearly that simple. 

I'm not sure why this is becoming a big deal lol all I'm saying is if someone asked me would you rather have this pattern happen this Friday or late November. I would pick late November because of the snow prospects. No guarantee in any year we will see this again.

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2 minutes ago, Weather1011 said:

I'm not sure why this is becoming a big deal lol all I'm saying is if someone asked me would you rather have this pattern happen this Friday or late November. I would pick late November because of the snow prospects.

Like if we were laying money down and the bookies were putting the warming Dec-Jan as having +250 for regional cold and snow on the moneyline, that would be cool to put some $ down and win. If not, welp it was long odds.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Like if we were laying money down and the bookies were putting the warming Dec-Jan as having +250 for regional cold and snow on the moneyline, that would be cool to put some $ down and win. If not, welp it was long odds.

Couldn't of said it any better

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6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

That we have fewer cold anomalies than we used to?

We definitely do. But you still are going to have years and periods within years that lean warm or cool even with background warming. If the atmosphere develops a tendency for troughing that repeats itself over a several month period thanks to background states that still exist with and regardless of general warming, getting an “out of season trough” isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It’s not like it’s stealing cold from the winter or something, even though that could be an idea that is easy to trick yourself into thinking is logical.

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Made it down to 48F. Another warm night.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

As I've said even what is shown tonight is cold.  People might be expecting too much for this early.

It was pretty much a given that the coldest outliers were never going to verify. Outliers seldom do.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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00Z EPS... for the next 7 days and then for day 8-15.    

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-3886400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-4491200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Rainfall stats down in the valley out here... it has rained every day for the last 2 weeks.  That is actually the longest streak of the year... even longer than any streak during the near record setting rain in January and February.   6.72 inches for the month now (normal is around 5 inches).   NW flow has been dominant for the last week which is very wet in this area.   The drier period coming up is not too surprising in this area.   

 

nb rain'.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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PDX got down to 48 last night. BRRRRR.

 

The high today should be much cooler today at least. Light rain is around the area and we now have much cooler air above us. The blowtorch should be on pause for the next few days! 

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Official low here was 44 this morning. Had 0.01” of precip overnight to hit 2.84” for October. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Looking like we will dip down to the 30s the next few nights and maybe even freezing here near the sound this weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 40s too. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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