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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

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Nice to see PDX hitting 35.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

No I’m just willing to call out self righteous d*cks like Jesse. There’s no need for him to be consistently rude and condescending it’s an every day problem here. I don’t feel “victimized” nobody here even knows me or my name...but people should feel comfortable to post what they want and ask questions without Jesse jumping on them. 

It’s too early for this stuff. I’m sorry you feel that way, and I think you took my comment in the wrong light.

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28 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

No I’m just willing to call out self righteous d*cks like Jesse. There’s no need for him to be consistently rude and condescending it’s an every day problem here. I don’t feel “victimized” nobody here even knows me or my name...but people should feel comfortable to post what they want and ask questions without Jesse jumping on them. 

Tim is just as bad, contrary to your previous post.

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Tim is just as bad, contrary to your previous post.

A race to the bottom debate sounds like a great way to spend a Friday! 

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Just now, Jesse said:

A race to the bottom debate sounds like a great way to spend a Friday! 

Yeah can we cut the teenage girl drama out before it gets out of hand? 

Good grief.

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Clouds moved in here pretty quick after sunrise. Always surprises me how quickly frost disappears when clouds move overhead, even with the temperature staying the same.

Could be a pretty chilly day with the system moving in directly on the heels of a cold night. Although I think south winds later this evening could bump things into the mid-50s down here.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Clouds moved in here pretty quick after sunrise. Always surprises me how quickly frost disappears when clouds move overhead, even with the temperature staying the same.

Could be a pretty chilly day with the system moving in directly on the heels of a cold night. Although I think south winds later this evening could bump things into the mid-50s down here.

Yeah, I think we will see our high temperature at night. Maybe even an midnight high? 

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For tracking purposes and future reference... the GFS was way too aggressive with the cold air at a week out.   That was an issue last winter as well.  

Top image is tomorrow morning when it was 7 days out... and the bottom image is the same time at 1 day out.

 

gfs_z500a_us_29.png

gfs_z500a_us_5.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For tracking purposes and future reference... the GFS was way too aggressive with the cold air at a week out.   That was an issue last winter as well.  

Top image is tomorrow morning when it was 7 days out... and the bottom image is the same time at 1 day out.

 

gfs_z500a_us_29.png

gfs_z500a_us_5.png

Thanks for posting. 

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For tracking purposes and future reference... the GFS was way too aggressive with the cold air at a week out.   That was an issue last winter as well.  

Top image is tomorrow morning when it was 7 days out... and the bottom image is the same time at 1 day out.

 

gfs_z500a_us_29.png

gfs_z500a_us_5.png

So if the GFS shows the trough 500 miles west of us over the Pacific we will be in biznaz. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So if the GFS shows the trough 500 miles west of us over the Pacific we will be in biznaz. 

Yeah... it could mean that as well.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3.4 ENSO region now forecast to bottom out around -2.1C in early December. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So if the GFS shows the trough 500 miles west of us over the Pacific we will be in biznaz. 

Yeah kind of what I was thinking. They are totally different 500mb patterns. I can't count how many times models have been off base with the 500mb pattern seven days out.

I could see a stronger case being made if it was still showing more or less the same 500mb pattern but with way less low level cold/warmer 850mb temps. Otherwise you are just taking an example of typical long range model noise and highlighting it to fit a narrative.

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26 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Maybe I did. The problem is many of your posts obviously ARE meant to be insulting or condescending so how should I know all the time wether you mean to insult me or someone else?
 Side note- I do agree tim can have his moments too but the big difference is he gets dumped on all the time because he’s “tim” yet you get away with it pretty often.
 Either way...I’m not really trying to stir the pot or create issues here. I really just want people to get along better as I’ve said many times and that’s why I’m saying all of this. I just think people should be held accountable for being rude and creating issues for other people on this forum. It’s one thing to make jokes and humorous comments but it’s another to be openly condescending. End of my speech.

I think this morning has mainly just stirred the pot. Obviously name calling and one sided rants about how an active member here is the worst person ever isn't going to move us a whole lot closer to getting along.

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Maybe I did. The problem is many of your posts obviously ARE meant to be insulting or condescending so how should I know all the time wether you mean to insult me or someone else?
 Side note- I do agree tim can have his moments too but the big difference is he gets dumped on all the time because he’s “tim” yet you get away with it pretty often.
 Either way...I’m not really trying to stir the pot or create issues here. I really just want people to get along better as I’ve said many times and that’s why I’m saying all of this. I just think people should be held accountable for being rude and creating issues for other people on this forum. It’s one thing to make jokes and humorous comments but it’s another to be openly condescending. End of my speech.

Some will argue that I have earned that  being "dumped on" over the last 15 years... and that is true in some regard.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS looks less troughy later next week again. 

PTL

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I have been shocked looking at the long range models how completely dead the Pacific looks. One has to think at some point the other shoe is going to drop. 

At this point models continue to essentially show default ridging through November. Some say with climate change and the blob the impacts of the Nina will be muted. I tend to disagree, but it is an interesting theory which is being borne out in real time right now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

We'll see about the Euro. 

Queen Euro.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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On a brighter note, with the chilly weather the last few days and the colder weather on the way this weekend, this October is quickly dropping down the ranks for warmest ever. Should drop behind 1988 by early next week which would bump it out of the top 5.

Even if the last few days of the month end up warmer than average, it will probably continue pulling the monthly average down since even a couple degrees warmer than average in late October is still so much cooler than what we saw the first ten days of the month.

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Seeing reports that Pasco got down to 23 and Benton City got down to 25 last night

Nice to see. East side should be really chilly by Sunday/Monday.

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GEM keeps the northwesterly train going but is quite dry.

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 22.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 14.0"

Coldest high: 9.0º

Coldest low: -5.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 minute ago, Kayla said:

GEM keeps the northwesterly train going but is quite dry.

I guess if we have to choose between the two, it beats more ridging in terms of interesting weather.

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GFS ensembles look generally cooler and more active than the operational.

Nice to see the cold trough the next few days trend a little chiller and longer lasting in the home stretch too.
 

3D55B360-615B-4885-B107-0BC74EC4594F.png.cc8d19795c9e758960a2e9a858d2cccc.png

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

For tracking purposes and future reference... the GFS was way too aggressive with the cold air at a week out.   That was an issue last winter as well.  

Top image is tomorrow morning when it was 7 days out... and the bottom image is the same time at 1 day out.

 

gfs_z500a_us_29.png

gfs_z500a_us_5.png

Thanks as well.....this helps teach my brain cells! At least it did signal cooler temps on the way.

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56 minutes ago, Jesse said:

On a brighter note, with the chilly weather the last few days and the colder weather on the way this weekend, this October is quickly dropping down the ranks for warmest ever. Should drop behind 1988 by early next week which would bump it out of the top 5.

Even if the last few days of the month end up warmer than average, it will probably continue pulling the monthly average down since even a couple degrees warmer than average in late October is still so much cooler than what we saw the first ten days of the month.

Pretty decent chance we wind up with a normal or even slightly cool month. We're looking at -10ish departures for a few straight days, and the cool nights will continue for awhile.

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4 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Thanks as well.....this helps teach my brain cells! At least it did signal cooler temps on the way.

Those two maps show a completely different 500mb pattern. There have been countless times the models have gotten the 500mb pattern wrong at day 7, whether it be the Euro, GFS, GEM, ICON, etc.

If anything the Euro flipped to being more bullish on the cold period than the GFS for much of the last week. Things gradually met in the middle and moderated which is almost always to be expected regarding extreme events in the mid to long range.

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17 minutes ago, Jesse said:

GFS ensembles look generally cooler and more active than the operational.

Nice to see the cold trough the next few days trend a little chiller and longer lasting in the home stretch too.
 

3D55B360-615B-4885-B107-0BC74EC4594F.png.cc8d19795c9e758960a2e9a858d2cccc.png

 

People are so glum. We have a decent little cold wave coming up.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So if the GFS shows the trough 500 miles west of us over the Pacific we will be in biznaz. 

Nah, its like centering and balancing that little steel ball on a track.  It will either slide one way or the other dramatically leaving us with our normal climate weather. Ugh....tough battle to get cold and snow here

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2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Nah, its like centering and balancing that little steel ball on a track.  It will either slide one way or the other dramatically leaving us with our normal climate weather. Ugh....tough battle to get cold and snow here

We struggle too. The mountains generally do their job well.

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Sorry for earlier this morning...won’t happen again I’ll try to be more respectful when addressing my concerns on this forum from now on. Again I legitimately just want  
to see people get along better on the forum is all I have nothing against anyone personally on here. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Up to 44 here after a low of 39 this morning. Only have had 0.05” this morning. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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