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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Low of 46 so far today. Currently 48 and mostly cloudy. Should be fun to see the temp stay more or less the same this morning and early afternoon (maybe warm a few degrees) then start to drop later in the afternoon.

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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

Posted Images

26 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

Awesome sunrise this morning, lightly raining also. 38*

477F63F5-5C12-4C7E-8F66-03B0EB2ADB17.jpeg

Cool pic!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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28 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Snowiest October day on record in Missoula and it's still snowing. 20" fell last night in Helena.

Posted this in the Intermountain thread but this historic storm and cold is too awesome not to share with you all.

10" overnight and still snowing heavily. Currently 11 degrees.

1029166789_ScreenShot2020-10-24at8_13_52AM.thumb.png.e8cd0322dfbb10df3407b0d94280ff18.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-24 at 8.14.04 AM.png

Cold pics!

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12 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pullman now reporting RAIN.

Snow on the ground in Pullman this morning... 

pullmanne.jpg

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Temp of 37, dewpoint of 23 this morning and definitely some gusty winds blowing out there this morning.  Looks like the peak we've had so far is 21mph, but we are on the fringes of the main "blast zone" of the Frazier outflow winds, so I'm sure its a lot stronger to my N-NW

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Have had some gusts close to 30mph out of the NE this morning. Low of 43 and now the sun is mostly out after a cloudy night. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Last time we had these kind of cold strong N/NE winds was mid March earlier this year. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Dropped to 30F here. Looks to be a stunningly beautiful day.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 0"

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Pretty awesome storm for the northern Rockies. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Temp has dropped 6 degrees in last two hours since the NNE winds have arrived. Love these days when the temp drops or holds steady through the day. Was 48 at 7:15 and now at 42 at 9:15. Should be in mid to upper 30’s by afternoon. 

That is quite a strong cold front.

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Last time we had these kind of cold strong N/NE winds was mid March earlier this year. 

I've never seen this type of event this early in the season.  A classic Arctic outbreak signature, but just a bit too early to have serious cold air to work with.  That having been said the ECMWF spits out a 27 / 8 day for Spokane tomorrow.  Just plain crazy!  Even here a brisk north wind with temps in the low 40s is pretty crisp.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The 6z ECMWF continued the idea of keeping the chill going through Tuesday morning.  Close to a week of well below normal temps for a number of locations.  Very respectable.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, westiztehbest said:

White out on the freeway driving last night.  Beautiful this morning. got about 7-8”.

Let's hope this has implications for the coming winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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That is a pretty dry 12Z GFS... through 240 hours at least.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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56 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Dropped to 30F here. Looks to be a stunningly beautiful day.

Wow!  You could put a really impressive minus departure for the day.  Something on the order of -15 perhaps.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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This looks to be verifying a bit colder than the recent model runs would have indicated...at least from a thickness perspective.  I'm pleased.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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These model runs are horrific. And the last time we saw these kinds of early arctic pushes this early was... Last fall...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These model runs are horrific. And the last time we saw these kinds of early arctic pushes this early was... Last fall...

Not like this.

A lot of good La Nina winters have horrible Novembers BTW.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These model runs are horrific. And the last time we saw these kinds of early arctic pushes this early was... Last fall...

Looks pretty darn nice from this perspective... where it has rained on 16 out of the last 17 days.     That is a pretty unusual run for October.     Although October 2016 took the cake with rain almost every day in the month.   

Normal is around 15 or 16 days with rain in October in this area... depending on elevation.    So we will end up close to normal with a dry first and last week and rain almost every day in between.   Normally its spread out more evenly.  

I would not be surprised if November follows the same streaky theme.   

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Not like this.

Not sure how to respond to this... Can you explain why you think this year is more impressive. 
 

Please refresh your memory on the 3 separate arctic airmasses Spokane saw from late September-October last year. 

C306CA6E-3474-49A1-9A4C-8546E6716D22.png

906D6F6E-8AFE-4D22-83F3-4C85AD9BD09A.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is a pretty dry 12Z GFS... through 240 hours at least.  

Fine with me.  The less gross / mild SW flow drizzle the better.  Dry in November is almost always cool to some degree.  I like the good solid cold fronts, but the endless gloom / warm patterns are terrible.  Obviously some of that is inevitable before the really good stuff comes though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Fine with me.  The less gross / mild SW flow drizzle the better.  Dry in November is almost always cool to some degree.  I like the good solid cold fronts, but the endless gloom / warm patterns are terrible.  Obviously some of that is inevitable before the really good stuff comes though.

Yeah... dry in November is rarely warm.  

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not sure how to respond to this... Can you explain why you think this year is more impressive. 
 

Please refresh your memory on the 3 separate arctic airmasses Spokane saw from late September-October last year. 

C306CA6E-3474-49A1-9A4C-8546E6716D22.png

906D6F6E-8AFE-4D22-83F3-4C85AD9BD09A.png

This will be a lot colder for many locations and earlier than the late month event last year.  I have made it point to specify that this type of pattern pre October 26 or so is extremely rare.  After that it happens a lot more often.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

This will be a lot colder for many locations and earlier than the late month event.  I have made it point to specify that this type of pattern pre October 26 or so is extremely rare.  After that it happens a lot more often.

The late September event last year was more impressive. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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We had essentially had two arctic intrusions by this point last year. Both of which delivered accumulating snow to the Spokane area. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z GEM is much more active... but the GEM was comically wrong for this weekend when it was 5-7 days out so not sure if it means anything.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This will be a lot colder for many locations and earlier than the late month event last year.  I have made it point to specify that this type of pattern pre October 26 or so is extremely rare.  After that it happens a lot more often.

Not trying to down play this event, but let’s not pretend we didn’t have historic cold even earlier last year. Whether or not the departures will be greater or less by a few degrees is largely beside the point. 
 

And no matter what happens the next few weeks this has been one of the warmest falls on record to this point and will likely end up well above average regionally unless something crazy happens in November. 
 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had essentially had two arctic intrusions by this point last year. Both of which delivered accumulating snow to the Spokane area. 

Yep, that proves that this winter will be horrible. 

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Yep, that proves that this winter will be horrible. 

Of course it does not. But it also does not prove the opposite either.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The GEM looks like something you might expect to see in a Niña fall. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Of course it does not. But it also does not prove the opposite either.

I know, but it just seems like you are being biased on the other side to offset him. He is irrationally positive and you are irrationally negative. Can't you guys just wait and see? 

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57 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These model runs are horrific. And the last time we saw these kinds of early arctic pushes this early was... Last fall...

You are already grinding away hard. Gonna be a really long winter. I can’t decide if you or Jim will make it feel longer. At least I believe Jim is being genuine with his enthusiasm. That is always a plus in my book.

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IMO the cold late last September and October was more impressive as well. We’re still yet to see how this will end up statistically of course but we had several freezing lows last October here in Tacoma will probably just have one this year. Many more nights in the 30s too. Last fall was colder than this one. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Chilly east wind has already started here. Down to 45, PDX is down to 47. Some sprinkles around too

This feels like a morning where we would be seeing scattered windswept flurries in a month or two.

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7 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I know, but it just seems like you are being biased on the other side to offset him. He is irrationally positive and you are irrationally negative. Can't you guys just wait and see? 

Facts are neutral. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

IMO the cold late last September and October was more impressive as well. We’re still yet to see how this will end up statistically of course but we had several freezing lows last October here in Tacoma will probably just have one this year. Many more nights in the 30s too. Last fall was colder than this one. 

I don’t think anyone is arguing this fall has been colder than last. This fall has been pretty textbook strong La Niña with a very warm first half.

I think it’s hard to construe the fact that we have now flipped to an impressively cool pattern for the last part of October as a bad thing though. Not saying you are but some are.

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You are already grinding away hard. Gonna be a really long winter. I can’t decide if you or Jim will make it feel longer. At least I believe Jim is being genuine with his enthusiasm. Genuineness is always a plus in my book.

It’s ironic you always imply I am making things up, and give him a free pass when he ignores reality. 
 

So pointing out the fact we had already had two intrusions of cold air at this point last year and it was the coldest fall in some areas since 1985, whereas this fall has been one of the warmest on record is somehow “disingenuous?” Okay.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Facts are neutral. 

The facts one chooses to inordinately focus on certainly do not always paint a neutral picture.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I don’t think anyone is arguing this fall has been colder than last. This fall has been pretty textbook strong La Niña with a very warm first half.

I think it’s hard to construe the fact that we have now flipped to an impressively cool pattern for the last part of October as a bad thing though. Not saying you are but some are.


Who is saying it’s a bad thing? No one. 
 

It’s great and it is a very transitory and brief pattern. We have not really “flipped” to anything. Just a brief interlude in our sea of overhead ridging. That is what I am decrying, not the current airmass. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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