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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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All this frothed up talk about winter implications yet I think I‚Äôm still the only one to have made a winter forecast.ūü§Ē

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah, only you are allowed to talk about that sort of thing.

How’s the +IOO Barnstormer cycle looking over the -FRI domain of the WEPAC in terms of this year’s incarnation of our epic January pattern, btw? 

You’re all talking about it. Seems I’m the one being chastised for sharing my viewpoint.

If there’s a statistically-significant relationship that can quantitatively deciphered in isolation across time spectra, I’d love to know. I’ve peeled my brains out looking for predictive, precursory tendencies during seasonal transitions. Most of them are statistical flukes arising via red noise.

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Detroit Oregon (RIP) had a 7‚Äô snow at the end of January 2008. They are at about 1800‚Äô. Silver falls at 1300‚Äô recorded a 47‚ÄĚ depth.¬†

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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53F with the occasional light shower. Nice to have some damp weather to break up the dry streak here. Other than that it feels like a typical fall day. Business as usual. Light WNW wind.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18¬†(Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1¬†(Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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47 here...DP of 32. Lots of sunshine today with a chilly north breeze. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.68‚ÄĚ

Cold season rainfall-9.85‚ÄĚ

Snowfall-0.0‚ÄĚ

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39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would prefer not to have to wait until winter is over for anything to happen. I would probably take 88-89 though. That was a historic blast.

The blast was worth the price of admission. ūüėĀ

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Good shitt is in store for us. Patience will be our virtue.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18¬†(Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1¬†(Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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The cross Cascade pressure gradients tonight look a bit looser on the 12z ECMWF than the the 0z.  Might be a chance to have fairly limited east wind tonight for the ESPL.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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First outflow of the season. Windy, but not overly gusty, so far. Sustained wind of 26mph (43km) a few miles away at Abbotsford airport in the last hour, with gusts in the upper 30s. Looks like the low could drop into the 20s tonight.

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Good Lord.  Tiger hasn't been joking about how torchy Eugene has been.  Their average high has been 8 degrees higher than here so far this month.  Pretty insane.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Low clouds breaking up here now... dead calm.  

20201024_120257.jpg

I'll bet those cottonwoods in the background are going to turn really nice over the next week or so.  You already have some nice colors popping!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'll bet those cottonwoods in the background are going to turn really nice over the next week or so.  You already have some nice colors popping!

Our landscape trees are putting on a show... the native trees are pretty dull though.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It feels incredibly crisp out there today.  Only 45 degrees with brisk north winds blowing.  This has really turned into a pretty dynamic month overall.  Mega torch the first week, two thunderstorm days in the past week, and now the cold.  Still looking for some record lows in places over the next couple of days.  The coldest it ever gets in my general area this early is the mid 20s and we have a solid shot at that tomorrow night.  Feeling it out there today it's not hard to imagine dropping below freezing early in the evening in places that decouple.  That will be pretty much everywhere tomorrow evening.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Up to 47 now after a low of 39 and a 47/30 spread yesterday. Sunny skies with fall colors becoming more and more prevalent. Great fall day.

Headed up to Bellingham for the evening. Hope the gusty outflow winds will hold on for a bit up there. 

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12Z EPS... 5-10 day and 10-15 day mean.    And its still warm at day 15.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-4404800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-4836800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... 5-10 day and 10-15 day mean.    And its still warm at day 15.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-4404800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-4836800.png

Winter cancel?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good Lord.  Tiger hasn't been joking about how torchy Eugene has been.  Their average high has been 8 degrees higher than here so far this month.  Pretty insane.

The new normal.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18¬†(Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1¬†(Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The new normal.

For Eugene to be warmer than the Puget sound lowlands in October? I think that has always been the normal.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

For Eugene to be warmer than the Puget sound lowlands in October? I think that has always been the normal.

8 degrees warmer than them?

Also we have hit 61F. Pleasant, cool late summer/early fall feeling today. It's dried up and the kiddos are all outside comfortably in t-shirts.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18¬†(Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1¬†(Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

8 degrees warmer than them?

Also we have hit 61F. Pleasant, cool late summer/early fall feeling today.

I always thought you were sort of above sh*t posting. Guess I was wrong. :(

Maybe Andrew is giving you lessons on the side ūüėŹ¬†

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I always thought you were sort of above posting. Guess I was wrong. :(

Maybe Andrew is giving you lessons on the side ūüėŹ¬†

 

 

I don't think lessons from anyone would help my inability to debate.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18¬†(Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1¬†(Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Has been breezy all day out of the north. Temp has been going between 45 and 47 degrees the last few hours...doesn’t look like we will be getting into the 50s today for the first time this fall. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.68‚ÄĚ

Cold season rainfall-9.85‚ÄĚ

Snowfall-0.0‚ÄĚ

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I had a hunch so I checked. Looks like the average low at EUG has been over five degrees colder than the average low at SEA month to date. 

In terms of average monthly temp, the stations are only one degree apart, with EUG sporting a 57.5 month to date and SEA with a 56.4. That is a way smaller difference than a normal October.

Anomaly wise EUG is +3.7 for October so far while SEA is +2.5

Utterly insane north/south gradient continues!!!! :(

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Meanwhile it has held at a high of 48 here so far with east winds gusting 15-20mph. 
 

Was overcast with some sprinkles around earlier, but the skies have brightened a little now.

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13 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I had a hunch so I checked. Looks like the average low at EUG has been over five degrees colder than the average low at SEA month to date. 

In terms of average monthly temp, the stations are only one degree apart, with EUG sporting a 57.5 month to date and SEA with a 56.4. That is a way smaller difference than a normal October.

Anomaly wise EUG is +3.7 for October so far while SEA is +2.5

Utterly insane north/south gradient continues!!!! :(


You are actually making the same argument I was this morning. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Was overcast with some sprinkles around earlier, but the skies have brightened a little now.

That sucks. Hang in there brother. Hopefully, you'll get some more rain and clouds soon and perhaps a super exciting max at PDX under 50. That would be bliss.

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15 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I had a hunch so I checked. Looks like the average low at EUG has been over five degrees colder than the average low at SEA month to date. 

In terms of average monthly temp, the stations are only one degree apart, with EUG sporting a 57.5 month to date and SEA with a 56.4. That is a way smaller difference than a normal October.

Anomaly wise EUG is +3.7 for October so far while SEA is +2.5

Utterly insane north/south gradient continues!!!! :(

It's been warm everywhere but the disparity is with precipitation. You can see how the drought conditions suddenly change right on the Oregon Washington border. 

20201024_133523.jpg.26c3bdaac44f343c275648dc5d8d514a.jpg

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29 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

8 degrees warmer than them?

Also we have hit 61F. Pleasant, cool late summer/early fall feeling today. It's dried up and the kiddos are all outside comfortably in t-shirts.

Definitely a preview of the coming winter. 53 at EUG with south winds while it's 31 at SLE with heavy snow.

Sorry.

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42 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winter cancel?

No... just early November cancel. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing to think about is the second very impressive cold wave to hit the West this season.  The September event was just too far east to give us much benefit, but it was also a very impressive blocking setup.  Might be a theme, and you can't complain this one was further west!

It had it's own effects down here though.

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12 minutes ago, dolt said:

That sucks. Hang in there brother. Hopefully, you'll get some more rain and clouds soon and perhaps a super exciting max at PDX under 50. That would be bliss.

Maybe you will stay pleasantly warm for this time of year¬†and a flood of stink bugs, murder hornets and other crawly little bastids will come¬†inside the house next time you open the front door ;)¬†ūüėė¬†

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Maybe you will stay pleasantly warm for this time of year¬†and a flood of stink bugs, murder hornets and other crawly little bastids will flood inside the house next time you open the door ;)¬†ūüėė¬†

No murder hornets in Oregon for at least 10 years. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.opb.org/article/2020/09/22/study-murder-hornets-could-reach-oregon-in-10-years/&ved=2ahUKEwjD1ZKxjM7sAhUgFjQIHQmBD0oQFjABegQIBBAE&usg=AOvVaw2mSS3c1xeQwwzACiFG9J2v

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1 minute ago, jakeinthevalley said:

It had it's own effects down here though.

I wonder how the winter it 1902-03. My memory doesn’t go back that far. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

It's been warm everywhere but the disparity is with precipitation. You can see how the drought conditions suddenly change right on the Oregon Washington border. 

20201024_133523.jpg.26c3bdaac44f343c275648dc5d8d514a.jpg

Yeah, precip is way more fickle than temp anomalies. And when it’s warmer than average Washington will almost always trend wetter than Oregon.

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3 minutes ago, dolt said:

Partly cloudy out with sun breaks. Only a light stink bug flurry at the moment. No accumulation so far.

They’ve been particularly bad here his year.  Another good/bad sign!!!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, dolt said:

Partly cloudy out with sun breaks. Only a light stink bug flurry at the moment. No accumulation so far.

6-10‚ÄĚ from Coburg north. South valley screwed again *insert sad emoji here but it‚Äôs really a happy once since it fits a long standing narrative* :(

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

6-10‚ÄĚ from Coburg north. South valley screwed again *insert sad emoji here but it‚Äôs really a happy once since it fits a long standing narrative* :(

I'm pretty sure TWL still has some snow piles in his yard from Feb 2019. He'll be fine. I suppose I could put a bag of stink bugs in the freezer to tide me over if the south valley gets screwed. FWIW, I'm in his boat this year. I think we all get the goods at least once this season, but we are at least 5 weeks away from that.

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