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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One the craziest World Series game winning plays right there... series tied.

Fuuck the Rays.

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45 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah, looks like that was the last time they did it this early.

Strong north/south gradient that winter!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I’m truly impressed with how quickly the dew points are dropping off tonight down the valley. Looks like into the mid-20s in the metro area, 27 at SLE. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I don’t know if I have ever seen the models this bad this time of year. Wow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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This is a really impressive cold outbreak for this early.  Not even midnight and Lynden is at 35 with NE winds gusting to 37, and at the same time Spokane is at 19 with gusty winds.  It appears the 850s have bottomed out at -5.5 over SEA (or will shortly).  To the best of my knowledge that would make this the coldest continental air mass to strike this early in many decades.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Things can change...Let’s reference the end of November/beginning of December 2008 as a case in point...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/11/thanksgiving-and-upcoming-heat-wave.html?m=1

A sheitty November is actually good news in a Nina year.  Many good Nina winters have been preceded by such.  That having been said the models could change tomorrow.  If 1988 and 1942 are any guide November should end up pretty normal overall.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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As expected there is still some wind around tonight so that will probably mitigate minimum temps tonight.  Tomorrow night on the other hand looks perfect to get really cold for most places.  Even with some light breeze it has managed to drop to 39 already.  I see no reason why many places couldn't drop to freezing by 7 or 8pm tomorrow night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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GFS looks great. Maybe a bit dry. This is the perfect time of year to avoid damp and coolish weather, plus my freeze fix will be out of the way with some frozen puddles on Monday morning. I'll take it. 

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43 with a DP of 26 here. Still getting breezy NE gusts so it feels pretty cold outside. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.68”

Cold season rainfall-9.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Given we are in a long term severe drought, squandering the first half of our 2nd wettest month is not good. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Wife says it is 31 at the house.

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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CFS has been improving once we get to about November 10th. Storm train gets going and solid pass level snows. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Given we are in a long term severe drought, squandering the first half of our 2nd wettest month is not good. 

It doesn't really matter for the most part. It's still too early for Cascade snow to accumulate and not melt out. Any significant rains will simply be dumped out the reservoirs. Fire season is over. 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS has been improving once we get to about November 10th. Storm train gets going and solid pass level snows. 

This zonal s**tfest should end during the last 10 days of November. Until then..not even a remote chance of anything interesting.

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

This zonal s**tfest should end during the last 10 days of November. Until then..not even a remote chance of anything interesting.

Yeah with maybe a sunny break. I doubt November will see any cold air though. Gotta wait till December 12th. ;)

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1 hour ago, dolt said:

It doesn't really matter for the most part. It's still too early for Cascade snow to accumulate and not melt out. Any significant rains will simply be dumped out the reservoirs. Fire season is over. 

Rain recharges groundwater. It’s a huge part of the water cycle that most people don’t even think about.

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The ECMWF is getting kind of a Nov 1990 look toward the end of the run.  Looks like a potential for AR events.  Any time you see that two piece high pressure setup over the NC and NE Pacific / PNW things are bound to get interesting.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is getting kind of a Nov 1990 look toward the end of the run.  Looks like a potential for AR events.  Any time you see that two piece high pressure setup over the NC and NE Pacific / PNW things are bound to get interesting.

Any recent correlation to this "theory", I've seen you post items/tidbits like this before and I'm genuinely curious.

Outside of any potential analogs, what's your reasoning behind this Jim?

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Down to 40F DP 34F. Nice chilly-ish night under the stars.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18 (Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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