finally some classic spring weather this week/ and summer conditions.

[richard mann]

Some suggest these phenomen[a] can be electrostatically correlated to tidal forcings [atmospheric].

 

— i.e. .. with so-called "Atmospheric Tides".

 

.. I disagreed.  

 

I've researched this phenomenon fairly extensively.   

 

— If sticking to the term "correlation" the paper / position may have some merit. But beyond that, no physical mechanism can be shown. So it's essentially just an hypothesis. Basically the timing fits, but they (with emphasis.) still haven't figured the connection / what's going on / what's being affected more primary. 

 

"Forcings". ... "forcing", what more specifically, hasn't been answered.

[Phil]

— i.e. .. with so-called "Atmospheric Tides".

 

.. I disagreed.

 

I've researched this phenomenon fairly extensively.

 

— If sticking to the term "correlation" the paper / position may have some merit. But beyond that, no physical mechanism can be shown. So its essentially just an hypothesis. Basically the timing fits, but they (with emphasis.) still haven't figured the connection / what's going on / what's being affected more primary.

 

"Forcings". ... "forcing", what more specifically, hasn't been answered.

What is your theory(s) on the existence and eastward propagation of these waves? I'd be interested to hear your ideas, because I'm still toying with different theories and have no concrete solution

 

I like to look at the MJO as simply a large-scale coupled kelvin wave, operating under the macroscale boundary state.

 

As for the boundary state, I feel fairly confident that it is set by forcings that include the QBO, Solar, and internal response resonances with lasting inertia (ENSO, etc)...the question I'm still struggling with is the nature and purpose of the MJO in initiating large scale (global) regime change? Large MJO events seem to precede shifts in the climate system, so it seems to be an odd "route" for the system to take, if you know what I mean?

[richard mann]

(.. question with a question, only, at this point. Sorry, not saying further. )
 
 

"In tandem", "forcings", "coupled with", "correlation/s".  / — Somethin' "missin'" certainly: .. it would appear. 
 
.. Basic heating differential—(Even with, the slightly changing, levels of insolation caused by slight fluctuations, in its main source.)—together with main "Coriolis", just won't do it. .. No identifiable mechanism.

.. Everything (with emphasis) that you've mentioned, suggested pointed to above, has to do with cold air mass movement more basically, is my thinking. What works to move cold air mass per your view. ?
 
— i.e. whether more educated, or more "theoretical".
 
Answer the question. It's not meant just more rhetorically here. 

 

— As much as you can tell me. 

[Phil]

.. Everything (with emphasis) that you've mentioned, suggested pointed above, has to do with cold air mass movement, more basically, is my thinking. What works to move cold air mass per your view. ?

 

— i.e. whether more educated, or more "theoretically".

Airmass movement (AKA circulation) can be attributed to a number of specific factors, but the common theme is disequilibrium (on/of whatever scale/form) as a trigger for large scale atmospheric motion within the gravitational field.. The movement/circulation is for the most part a result of a thermodynamic disequilibrium..

 

The key is finding out the causative mechanisms (forcings) behind large scale disequilibrium. This is where things get complicated, because there are so many inter-working variables within the system...so when trying to comprehend external influence, often scientists cannot even comprehend trying to model it...

 

For example, some particle physicists theorize that a weakening of the Earth's magnetic field may change the ionization processes involved in governing the rate of nucleation due to increased penetration of both cosmic rays and solar winds...which should (in theory) alter tropical cloud dynamics, upper atmospheric O^3, H2O, and NO^3 content, hence the temperature gradient above the middle troposphere. This could significantly alter the amount of solar energy entering the system as well as large scale atmospheric circulation and global temperature.

[richard mann]

Airmass movement (AKA circulation) ....

 

Not greater "circulation". Specific cold air mass movement.  (e.g. "pressure gradient", "Coriolis", ect.. What a' ya' got. ?)

 

".. thermodynamic disequilibrium." . —> "heating differential". (See above, I hadn't finished the post.)

 

The key is finding out the causative mechanisms (forcings) behind large scale disequilibrium. This is where things get complicated, because there are so many inter-working variables within the system...so when trying to comprehend external influence, often scientists cannot even comprehend trying to model it.

"Key" for you, perhaps.  But cold (or cold-er, perhaps more apt with this idea more specific in mind.) air mass movement, is the main focus here too as I see it. "Inter-working variables" (?) .. All determined, by moving, colder air's, impact on warmer.

 

The "key" is, .. what (?) causes colder air mass to be moved around within the main weather-producing atmosphere.

 

If more abstractly speaking, "warmer"—whether more wet or more dry—is ultimately, just in its "way". 

 

Basically "Phil", the "rotating turn-table" "illustration" (rudimentary "lab experiment".) points to "Coriolis" as being responsible for "some" of this movement. @ @ "Pressure gradient", due largely to "heating differential", for some more. But put together, these don't account for the "variability" where looking at colder air's both movement together distribution more broadly. Not near to well enough.

[Phil]

Reports of sustained winds off the NC coast over 100mph...impressive for an early July hurricane...

 

I have a feeling this is just the beginning of what could be a long season for the east coast...worst case scenario would be a 170mph storm captured by an inverted trough w/ a strong inflow jet...would result in 150mph wind gusts from Richmond VA, through DC, and Baltimore assuming the lack of an antecedent inversion

[weatherfan2012]

that would be a complete disaster for the eastern seaboard hazel likey came closest to that

[richard mann]

-

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/516-finally-some-classic-spring-weather-this-week/?p=29523
 
"cold air mass" movement, "Phil". … 
 
— Check the "gif-loop", covering from the 26th of June, through to 12z today (main initialization daily.), that I've attached to a post to "Tim", about something else, accessible here just below. 
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/573-pacific-nw-july-2014-discussion/?p=29572   @ @

[weatherfan2012]

in Florida past two weeks vacation but heads up middle Atlantic northeast another round of severe thunderstorms likey tomorrow through Tuesday as a strong front and trough takes place in the eastern third of the nation.

[Phil]

Really hoping for something powerful this go around..I'm flying home right now, so should hopefully make it in time

[richard mann]

-
http://www.proxigee.com/wxfill_like-this.jpg
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/516-finally-some-classic-spring-weather-this-week/?p=29539
 
Appreciated, only just today apparently. 
 
— So, what .. more (i.e. looked at otherwise.), moves cold air mass. ?  
 

(... "pressure gradient", "Coriolis", ect.. What a' ya' got. ?)

Clew:
 
.... A bowling ball dropped in a 5-gal. bucket of water. Does [the] pressure gradient force move the bowling ball. ?
 
$$ -I .. think not. (!)

[weatherfan2012]

hope you get in before or after the current line of storms move through up there.severe thunderstorm warning all over the place from pa to va.

[richard mann]

-
 
... When(ever), you get .. around to it "Phil". 
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/516-finally-some-classic-spring-weather-this-week/?p=29859
 
 
… And then, once (Or even: now that .. perhaps.), you've pondered and answered the ".. bowling ball, dropped into a five-gallon bucket of water / pressure gradient force", clew with question, that I've pointed to above, …
 
As one additional, ..... 
 
$ ..... Now "shoot", that same bowling ball, out of a cannon, ….
 
— South, from whatever more Northerly location on the plantet, and at, whatever more specific angle that you like. 
 
— More of a thought experiment here of course, than one actually more possible. …. "Coriolis", ala Newton. @ @ @ 
 
….. This with also (or before doing so.) increasing, both the "spin" of the planet (i.e. its main speed of rotation.), along with its gravitation. Each to equate to that working on different more individual cold air mass molecules, …. or either a specific mass of cold air. ..
 
— i.e. in line with the more specific way in which main "Coriolis" would work (does.) on whatever main colder air mass. ….
 
.. And with this, your explaining for me, how the bowling ball would be caused to move more strongly Eastward at whatever point along the line here, during its flight south. 
 
$$ .. Even add "friction". .. i.e. the earth's gravity's, [main] hold on .... the mass in question. (!)
 
.. Perhaps even the pressure gradient force, .. produced by and with the difference existing between the bowling ball and whatever air mass it moves through.

Still asking, here "Phil".
 

.... What move[s] cold air mass per your view. ?

 

.. per yours or anyone else's.

[weatherfan2012]

it was nice to come back this weekend to normal to below normal temperatures.great trip just a tad bit rainer then we would have liked it to be doing the two weeks there in Florida.but it been a stormy pattern for most of the eastern seaboard this summer.

[weatherfan2012]

another record low was broken this morning this makes 3 for july that's incredible in it self for july.and no major heat waves in site.

[richard mann]

-
(.. zzzzz.)  @

[Phil]

Wow, SPC is bullish for a legit severe outbreak tomorrow:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_07_2014/post-397-0-17905100-1406355314.gif

[weatherfan2012]

they have been excited about this threat for a while now.will be interesting to see how this plays out. certainly a dynamic pattern for late july standards.

[Phil]

Some of the datacenters I work with are on high alert for the coming week due to the storms. I think they take their cues from what is on weather.com.

It was storming for 9-10hrs straight in these parts last night, so there's a question of whether or not the atmosphere has been somewhat worked-over, as last night's disturbance was weaker and actually sourced via the SW Monsoon..

 

Right now...theta-e pooling is impressive w/ very nice 500mb-700mb T differential...could be a big day should everything come together..

 

Tornado Watch issued.

[richard mann]

... so there's a question of whether or not the atmosphere has been somewhat worked-over ...

 

No question it has, but to what extent, by what and for how long this might go on remains to be seen. 

 

(.. worked over. ?)

[Phil]

Worked over = reduced instability

[weatherfan2012]

the winds today here were out of the southwest normaly our big storm events work best with southeast winds components as it feeds storms in the reagion.two factors may have been over worked west of 95 and wind direction east of 95.surpressing things.if we had a southeast wind component today may have been quite bad.it shows why all factors are important if your missing a couble factors it will underproduce somewhat.it will be interisting to see how August fairs with thunderstorms some data wants to stall the front and bring gulf of Mexico moster up the eastern seaboard first week of August could be a wet first week of Augest if data is right.

[Phil]

Failure imby...heavy downpours, some wind, some lightning

[weatherfan2012]

yeah pa and the northeast got the brunt of it this go around. near boston had a tornado this morning.those northern baltimore harfard and the northern eastern shore got hit pretty good last night

[Phil]

Big change from last summer as far as insects and wildlife go around here. Almost no spiderwebs to be found anywhere. Also haven't seen many squirrels or chipmunks.

[weatherfan2012]

yes it has been a different summer pattern then the last few years I also notice the lack of spiderwebs.I see there quite a few winter outlooks going out in july and now here in earlyAugest.my problem with that is I think there still uncertainty in how this el nino -qbo and solor combernation will exackly play out which may not be until october and November.I get where some and joe bastardi are getting at just my concern is in a year like this year it's better to wrait to see how things progress over the next few month.I share your thoughts phil.a over all weak sun is key a active sun in a negative qbo el nino combernation you may end up with a 94-95 which was it very good nation wide .so while I do see the idea for a cold winter I feel it's to soon to say for sure.the one good thing we are not in a setup like we were in the early 90s.where we lack o3s really giving the pattern in the early 90s it not surpiseing phil we saw such crap winters.plus we had an very active sun.

[Phil]

In other news...maybe? Lol

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1548.html

[weatherfan2012]

the rain has been relentless today flash flooding in many locations. there were reports of water up to the headlights of cars in the long term parking lot of bwi airport.and it's still raining.a big mess out there today.its been in an locations from 95 to the bay. the batch of heavey rain and thunderstorms has pretty much been slow to almost stalled droping some serious rains in the reagion.tornado warning went up for the line in west Virginia. rain fall in central md 95 east has been 5 to 8 inchs amazeing rains.and it's still pouring at times.

[Phil]

Heard that some places in eastern MD got over 10" of rain today. Folks around BWI apparently got 5-6" in 2hrs...crazy stuff

[Phil]

KISP (NE MD) received 9.71" of rain in under two hours. That's legit..

 

I think the world record for "most rainfall in one minute" was also set in MD. I think it was 1.26"

[Phil]

Wind chill in the 30s this morning...invigorating..

 

43/40 with a WNW wind

[Phil]

Beautiful morning in the valleys..Moorefield WV:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/BtsZzN/640.jpg

[Phil]

Another day with 70+ dews...thundery

[Phil]

70/70...thick, steamy fog

[Phil]

I'm talking to myself in here, Lol. Currently 71/71 with a steamy fog

[richard mann]

I'm talking to myself in here, Lol. Currently 71/71 with a steamy fog

 

(Presumably you're referring to this thread more initially here above.)

 

.. finally some classic .. spring weather ... this week.

[Phil]

Yep

[richard mann]

-

.. So perhaps, the reason that you're "talking to yourself" (as you've suggested.), is hidden in the thread's title. 

[Phil]

This has essentially morphed into a general observations thread

[richard mann]

-

— Hadn't seen anything regarding the idea above. 

 

(Have fun with it.)

 

Of more incidental note. These people may need some steering.

 

https://player.fm/series/weatherbrains/weatherbrains-448-everyone-gets-an-outflow

[Phil]

Major storm today, winds hit 71mph w/ heavy rains and frequent lightning

[weatherfan2012]

we got a period of heavey rain and some rumbers of thunder the worst those stayed to the south north and west where you were at.it finlly crack 90 first time this month and also the last day of Augest.

[Phil]

we got a period of heavey rain and aome rumbers of thunder the worst those stayed to the south north and west where you were at.it finlly crack 90 first time this month and also the last day of Augest.

Great to hear from you again! Where have you been?

 

I've been talking to myself in here

[weatherfan2012]

has it been to much to report really since the big rain storms in mid August. mostly alot of upper 70s to low 80 degree days with nice condtions for mid summer.

[Phil]

went from 78/78 this AM to 68/68 w/o a frontal boundary or s/w

 

interesting

[weatherfan2012]

there were some healthy storms from 3 to 5 then they just pooped out all togeather which was quite interesting.

[weatherfan2012]

going to be quite a stormy afternoon and evening across the reagion as the main front and system crosses the reagion tonight.severe thunderstorm warnings out west of dc.the rige east trough west for first half of September has turned out to be a great idea as the heat has made big come back just when kids are back to school

[weatherfan2012]

nice cell headed for my location strong line of storms in western maryland heading east.

[Phil]

Major storm today too, really bowed out right over western MD

[Phil]

Still no power here...what a mess