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Potential Mother's Day Severe weather outbreak


NEJeremy

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I'm becoming increasingly concerned/excited about the prospects of severe weather on this Sunday, Mother's Day. Today's runs of the models have brought a warm, moist, and very unstable airmass into eastern Nebraska and Iowa on Sunday along with very impressive tornadic indices as well. The Des Moines AFD from this afternoon was worded very strongly saying that they wouldn't be surprised if the SPC outlook for this day is upgraded to a moderate or even a high risk. It'll be interesting to see how the models play out over the next day

 

 

 

 

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This saddens me that no one has commented on this yet! We're about to get slammed, moderate risk issued and through the wording of the NWS I'm banking on us getting a high risk. Dangerous day tomorrow, the shear and instability are mirroring the outbreaks in Arkansas earlier this month. Bring it on baby!

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I saw a helicity of 680 on the NAM just west of Omaha on the 18Z NAM!! Those numbers match the outbreak in Alabama the day of the Tuscaloosa tornado in 2011

Lincoln and Omaha are going to get pummeled my friend. I'm really really concerned about morning convection ruining it all again though. I guess we'll see, HRRR has storms until about 11 am.

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Im also worried about the morning crapvection ruining it for later in the day (although i work from 3-11). It would be nice to go outside and look at some nice structured storms. 

 

EDIT: SEVERE STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA NOW, along with a line of severe storms moving north and east  (winds 60mph + 1" hail )

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0562.gif

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NE KS...S-CNTRL/SE NEB...FAR SW IA...FAR NW
MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111749Z - 111945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SUPERCELL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO FROM N-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO FAR SW IA. ALL FACETS OF SVR
WX ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 65
KT...HAIL LARGER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND TORNADOES...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. AS A RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED BY 20Z OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY
AGITATED AND BUOYANT CU FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO
INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM JUST N OF RSL ENEWD TOWARDS STJ HAVE INCREASE TO ABOVE 80 DEG
F.

MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z TOP SOUNDING WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS YIELDS
AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE GREATER THAN 2500 J PER KG.
HOWEVER...SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING IS LIKELY ONGOING WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONTINUED HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE THIS INHIBITION WITH RESULTANT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

TWX AND EAX VAD PROFILERS SHOW VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH TWX
RECENTLY MEASURING 219 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. CONTINUED NWD PROGRESS
OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED...WITH STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM N-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO FAR SW IA.
BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS
A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS.

THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL READILY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL /GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/...STRONG WINDS...AND
TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. AS SUCH...A TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 20Z.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/11/2014
 
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Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes

Likelihood High Moderate

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind

Moderate Low

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail

High Moderate

 

Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.

Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

SEL2

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 142

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

220 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

 

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST IOWA

NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS

FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA

 

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

 

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES

POSSIBLE

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS

TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

 

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHENANDOAH IOWA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

 

&&

 

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 141...

 

DISCUSSION...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM JUST

NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHEAST ALONG

A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IA.

GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG

LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE

FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND

TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE INTENSE.

 

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

 

 

...MEAD

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Looking like Lincoln/Omaha corridor is staring down a loaded gun. Visible sat showing clearing in south east nebraska and Beatrice is currently sitting at 82/67 temp dew point. Tiv is currently sitting in Beatrice also.....

Heating up really quick here. It's sunny out now, and my gosh is it ever humid. I think we do well, the HRRR shows a monster supercell moving right over LNK/OMA. Could be scary around these parts in particular. Should be really interesting! Flash Flood Watch also issued. Man, two of my favorite things to see. Drought relief and severe weather. Awesome. Surprised the watch isn't a PDS, because it is RIPE out there.

 

EDIT: Storm blowing up south of Hastings. Would not be surprised if that area gets some rotation and a warning from this. Got a good feeling about today!

 

EDIT 2: Dear Lord.....!

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014051117/t2/cref_t2sfc_f05.png

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Holy mother that cell in Hastings might be big big trouble. Outflow winds on radar showing 70-80 knots. This cell is almost scary, pretty much same location from a f-5 my area saw 50 years ago. I'm not saying that's going to happen but for sure will be going tornado warned real soon.

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Wow, that cell is a monster right now near York... Looks like this could be an I-80 special as it heading slightly north of east putting the Lincoln metro area in its sights over the next hour or so. This looks like the "storm of the day," and wow the signatures on radar are scary intense.

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I'm scared

It looks like the rotation/tornado is going to sneak north of Lincoln, but storms like this can make right turns - going to be a close call... but wow if this storm/tornado keeps going - the Omaha metro is dead in this storms sights. This could get bad really fast! Hopefully everyone out there is paying attention to this monster.

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Buddy of mine recorded this coming into the Elkorn area. Pretty impressive to say the least. 


 


https://www.facebook...f_t=video_reply


 


I was grazed by the northwest fringe of this cell. Was absolutely a beast of a storm, one of the most impressive supercells I have seen in our area in a long time. If it wan't for the strong RFD cutting off circulation over and over this thing could have produced a massive wedge on the ground for a long period of time. 

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Ended up with 2.7" of rain, can't wait for the next outbreak. Sucks to hear about the damage but glad to see no serious injuries.

Yeah last night was an amazing night of severe thunderstorms across Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa... and I am glad that no one was killed or seriously hurt, just goes to show that people out here on the plains are certainly weather smart when it comes to severe weather - those were some powerful storms last night that could have easily taken lives if the warnings weren't heeded.

 

The whole Omaha metro area saw at least 2 inches of rain, and some areas to the west of the city saw upwards of 3.5 to 4". Where I live in Millard, preliminary reports had us near 3 inches total between the storms Sunday morning and last night. Amazing event, and in a way it makes up for such a lousy Winter in a few ways - haven't seen a storm that electric move into the Omaha metro in a few years (the lightning and thunder was nearly nonstop for one full hour, with some incredibly loud booms - especially as the storm moved into eastern Saunders county, the atmosphere outside was just nuts at that time).

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I recorded 2.73" at my house in NW Omaha. Went out chasing Sunday and followed the monster HP cell from south central Nebraska all the way back to Omaha. Saw one brief tornado near Fairmont Nebraska, but otherwise the tornadoes all appeared to be rain wrapped and I didn't want to do anything crazy to try and get inside that beast. One of the meanest looking storms and most violent motion in the clouds I've seen in a long time!

Was blasted by 60 mph inflow winds, 90 mph RFD winds at the Milford exit, and 70-75 mph winds just southwest of Omaha when I was heading back home. Omaha NWS confirmed 2 EF-1 tornadoes in the western suburb of Elkhorn with one of the tracks going by my house within a couple of miles! I will hopefully post some pics soon.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I can't post images or use the button for a link for some reason. I'm not sure if it is my computer or what is going on, but when I click on one of those buttons it opens the new box where I would add the pictures, but then the buttons for "okay" or "cancel" don't work so I can't get out of the box.

 

I did post a blog with pictures and my chase account here though: http://greatplainstornadotours.blogspot.com

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