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I guess we have enough members in this region to make a thread for this storm meaningful. 

GFSNGP_prec_kuchsnow_063.png.60cc50958e690d842b24d65f27dbbc46.png

Discuss.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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RDPS 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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FGF put 1-3" in my grid. Hate that I agree with that.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Kind of excited to see how the models do with this, may get a indication on whether to trust them this year or not.

NAM did best with moisture, RDPS did best with thermals, and the global models a few days out did best with track on the Saturday clipper.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Very little change between 06Z NAM and 12Z, besides 12Z being a tad more moist.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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SREF plumes have my mean at 2.63". MSP at 2.85".

 

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Would assume advisories will be hoisted with the afternoon package here if the rest of the 12z suite follows. Several other CAMs showing a good 3-5" Kuchera total.  10:1 ratio looks possible later in the afternoon but I would assume it will be lower than that for most of the event.  

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4" up here where there's less moisture. The storm really bombs once it's in S MN.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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HRRR showing some funny business for here...

 

hrrr_2020101912_029_46.94--97.12.png

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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  • FAR_Weather changed the title to 10/20 Clipper
22 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Fargo, I noticed the date is off and should prob read 10/20...I'm not sure where I can edit the title unless you see it...

I fixed it. It was off, I still had Saturday's pathetic clipper on my mind.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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15 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Winter Weather Advisory posted for 2-5" with higher amounts possible along the I-94 corridor. Won't stick around too long, but should be a fun first real snow of the season. The 540 line lingers over the area for the event though. 

Zero headline for here. I'd love to hear their explanation behind that.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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18Z NAM is a bit farther North than 12Z, but the 540 line is the exact same so the South end of the cutoff doesn't move at all. This results in higher totals down near the cutoff in extreme Southern MN.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Sooooo FGF put me under a SPS for 2-4" of snow tomorrow.

2-4" is exactly the criteria for a WWA. But they opted for a SPS for here, with a WWA hoisted in lakes country.

I don't understand this office.

Quote

...WINTER WEATHER LIKELY THIS WEEK, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AROUND
THURSDAY...

The first round of winter weather is expected to impact the
region Tuesday bringing generally 2 to 4 inches, with highest
amounts expected within portions of west-central and northwest
Minnesota.

A more robust, potentially significant winter system is expected
to impact the area around Thursday. This has the potential of
bringing higher snowfall amounts compared to Tuesday, potentially
bringing significant impacts. There is still much uncertainty
surrounding this system, so stay tuned to the forecast for latest
updates regarding this potentially significant winter system.

 

  • Confused 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Surface temps are going to be an issue here tomorrow. If it's 36 during the heaviest rates, obviously it's not going to pile up as fast as if it were 32-33.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Sooooo FGF put me under a SPS for 2-4" of snow tomorrow.

2-4" is exactly the criteria for a WWA. But they opted for a SPS for here, with a WWA hoisted in lakes country.

I don't understand this office.

 

GRR extension office??

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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22 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GRR extension office??

I was gonna troll react this but it seems that brings your karma down.

But yes, this does seem to be a GRR extension office. Between their stubbornness with Saturday's clipper track and now this.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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18Z Euro

Euro 10.png

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Not much change on either NAM model.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

18Z Euro

Euro 10.png

I keep thinking this is 5 days out like most storm threads we start but heck, that's a 35 hr map? Usually a done deal within that range.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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From MPX- (enjoy it up there and Fargo!)

 

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

A snowfall of 1 inch or greater in the Twin Cities typically
doesn't occur for another month (this would be only the 10th time
since the late 1800's that it's happened in the Twin Cities before
October 21st). And, if the MSP airport measures more than 3.0
inches today, the daily record dating back to October 1916 will be
shattered...

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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HRRR and RAP showing the warmer air moving a bit more north, hence lower totals to the south. Metro should be in good shape, especially if the advertised stripe of heavier precip materializes.  3-7" in the point. I say let's just get the 3" and set some records. 

Also, Fargo got his Advisory.  Good luck up there! Nothing wrong with some early season fun!

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Sky was supposed to clear a bit overnight, and thus, we were supposed to get well into the 20s. That didn't happen. Crap. 33.1°F. It will warm up today with a SE wind.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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First flakes currently falling. The system is here. 33.3*F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Northeast SoDak is seeing some insane returns.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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7 minutes ago, Tom said:

Good luck up there boys!  Looks like MSP is in the bullseye.  TWC has 8-12” in the forecast.

WHAT?? I'm not sure I'm buying that, but if it happens I can guarantee you that not many people are prepared for that....myself included. I haven't even changed the oil in the snowblower yet! 😆

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Ripping pretty well here right now. Radar isn't looking too hot, hoping the upper levels can get more saturated as the low progresses East. 32.0°F.

  • Snow 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Just went for a drive. Bridges are a nightmare, and it is beginning to appreciably accumulate on side roads and especially parking lots. Flash freezing will be an issue tonight. 31.8*F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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24 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Here we go. Gonna get real pretty quick it appears. Decent flake size at the onset. 

 

EDIT:  Upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.  Now up to 2"/hr. Mercy.  

4-6" wow. My gf might not be able to make the drive down here later.

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37 minutes ago, james1976 said:

4-6" wow. My gf might not be able to make the drive down here later.

Just took a quick drive on my lunchbreak.  Roads are mainly wet, but they are starting to become covered in spots.  Bridges and overpasses are slick. Temp now below freezing, so it might not improve much. I would hope the interstate would be ok though. 

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3 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Just took a quick drive on my lunchbreak.  Roads are mainly wet, but they are starting to become covered in spots.  Bridges and overpasses are slick. Temp now below freezing, so it might not improve much. I would hope the interstate would be ok though. 

I'm about to drive to my doctor across town. NDDOT indicates that interstates here are just wet which is good.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Nice...

Quote
Current conditions at

Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (KMSP)

Lat: 44.88°NLon: 93.23°WElev: 840ft.
sn.png

Heavy Snow

30°F

-1°C

Humidity 96%
Wind Speed SE 10 mph
Barometer 30.20 in (1023.7 mb)
Dewpoint 29°F (-2°C)
Visibility 0.25 mi
Wind Chill 21°F (-6°C)
Last update 20 Oct 12:53 pm CDT

 

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Pure rip city. Just eyeballing it from the office window, but I'd say 2-3" down already. We're gonna blow past the record for this date for sure.....probably going to double the record.  Record snowfall for any date in October is just over 8" during the 1991 Halloween Blizzard.  That one is probably safe. 

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