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10/20 Clipper


Minny_Weather

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Kind of excited to see how the models do with this, may get a indication on whether to trust them this year or not.

NAM did best with moisture, RDPS did best with thermals, and the global models a few days out did best with track on the Saturday clipper.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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22 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Fargo, I noticed the date is off and should prob read 10/20...I'm not sure where I can edit the title unless you see it...

I fixed it. It was off, I still had Saturday's pathetic clipper on my mind.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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15 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Winter Weather Advisory posted for 2-5" with higher amounts possible along the I-94 corridor. Won't stick around too long, but should be a fun first real snow of the season. The 540 line lingers over the area for the event though. 

Zero headline for here. I'd love to hear their explanation behind that.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Sooooo FGF put me under a SPS for 2-4" of snow tomorrow.

2-4" is exactly the criteria for a WWA. But they opted for a SPS for here, with a WWA hoisted in lakes country.

I don't understand this office.

Quote

...WINTER WEATHER LIKELY THIS WEEK, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AROUND
THURSDAY...

The first round of winter weather is expected to impact the
region Tuesday bringing generally 2 to 4 inches, with highest
amounts expected within portions of west-central and northwest
Minnesota.

A more robust, potentially significant winter system is expected
to impact the area around Thursday. This has the potential of
bringing higher snowfall amounts compared to Tuesday, potentially
bringing significant impacts. There is still much uncertainty
surrounding this system, so stay tuned to the forecast for latest
updates regarding this potentially significant winter system.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Sooooo FGF put me under a SPS for 2-4" of snow tomorrow.

2-4" is exactly the criteria for a WWA. But they opted for a SPS for here, with a WWA hoisted in lakes country.

I don't understand this office.

 

GRR extension office??

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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22 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GRR extension office??

I was gonna troll react this but it seems that brings your karma down.

But yes, this does seem to be a GRR extension office. Between their stubbornness with Saturday's clipper track and now this.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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11 hours ago, Clinton said:

Kind of excited to see how the models do with this, may get a indication on whether to trust them this year or not.

Exactly.......👍

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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For October standards, this is an impressive system and a potent one as well.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

18Z Euro

Euro 10.png

I keep thinking this is 5 days out like most storm threads we start but heck, that's a 35 hr map? Usually a done deal within that range.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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From MPX- (enjoy it up there and Fargo!)

 

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

A snowfall of 1 inch or greater in the Twin Cities typically
doesn't occur for another month (this would be only the 10th time
since the late 1800's that it's happened in the Twin Cities before
October 21st). And, if the MSP airport measures more than 3.0
inches today, the daily record dating back to October 1916 will be
shattered...

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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HRRR and RAP showing the warmer air moving a bit more north, hence lower totals to the south. Metro should be in good shape, especially if the advertised stripe of heavier precip materializes.  3-7" in the point. I say let's just get the 3" and set some records. 

Also, Fargo got his Advisory.  Good luck up there! Nothing wrong with some early season fun!

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7 minutes ago, Tom said:

Good luck up there boys!  Looks like MSP is in the bullseye.  TWC has 8-12” in the forecast.

WHAT?? I'm not sure I'm buying that, but if it happens I can guarantee you that not many people are prepared for that....myself included. I haven't even changed the oil in the snowblower yet! 😆

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