Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 I guess we have enough members in this region to make a thread for this storm meaningful. Discuss. 2 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 RDPS 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 FGF put 1-3" in my grid. Hate that I agree with that. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Kind of excited to see how the models do with this, may get a indication on whether to trust them this year or not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Clinton said: Kind of excited to see how the models do with this, may get a indication on whether to trust them this year or not. NAM did best with moisture, RDPS did best with thermals, and the global models a few days out did best with track on the Saturday clipper. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Very little change between 06Z NAM and 12Z, besides 12Z being a tad more moist. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 SREF plumes have my mean at 2.63". MSP at 2.85". 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Would assume advisories will be hoisted with the afternoon package here if the rest of the 12z suite follows. Several other CAMs showing a good 3-5" Kuchera total. 10:1 ratio looks possible later in the afternoon but I would assume it will be lower than that for most of the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 12z Euro continues with a 6-8" hit over the metro at 10:1. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: 12z Euro continues with a 6-8" hit over the metro at 10:1. Wouldn't surprise me given today's surprise event in C IA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 4" up here where there's less moisture. The storm really bombs once it's in S MN. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 12 GFSv16 with an even foot for the metro Kuchera. LOL! Great, another GFS turd in production. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 12z EPS...increasing totals for C MN... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 HRRR showing some funny business for here... Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 @Fargo, I noticed the date is off and should prob read 10/20...I'm not sure where I can edit the title unless you see it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Winter Weather Advisory posted for 2-5" with higher amounts possible along the I-94 corridor. Won't stick around too long, but should be a fun first real snow of the season. The 540 line lingers over the area for the event though. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 22 minutes ago, Tom said: @Fargo, I noticed the date is off and should prob read 10/20...I'm not sure where I can edit the title unless you see it... I fixed it. It was off, I still had Saturday's pathetic clipper on my mind. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 15 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: Winter Weather Advisory posted for 2-5" with higher amounts possible along the I-94 corridor. Won't stick around too long, but should be a fun first real snow of the season. The 540 line lingers over the area for the event though. Zero headline for here. I'd love to hear their explanation behind that. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 18Z NAM is a bit farther North than 12Z, but the 540 line is the exact same so the South end of the cutoff doesn't move at all. This results in higher totals down near the cutoff in extreme Southern MN. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Sooooo FGF put me under a SPS for 2-4" of snow tomorrow. 2-4" is exactly the criteria for a WWA. But they opted for a SPS for here, with a WWA hoisted in lakes country. I don't understand this office. Quote ...WINTER WEATHER LIKELY THIS WEEK, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AROUND THURSDAY... The first round of winter weather is expected to impact the region Tuesday bringing generally 2 to 4 inches, with highest amounts expected within portions of west-central and northwest Minnesota. A more robust, potentially significant winter system is expected to impact the area around Thursday. This has the potential of bringing higher snowfall amounts compared to Tuesday, potentially bringing significant impacts. There is still much uncertainty surrounding this system, so stay tuned to the forecast for latest updates regarding this potentially significant winter system. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Surface temps are going to be an issue here tomorrow. If it's 36 during the heaviest rates, obviously it's not going to pile up as fast as if it were 32-33. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: Sooooo FGF put me under a SPS for 2-4" of snow tomorrow. 2-4" is exactly the criteria for a WWA. But they opted for a SPS for here, with a WWA hoisted in lakes country. I don't understand this office. GRR extension office?? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, jaster220 said: GRR extension office?? I was gonna troll react this but it seems that brings your karma down. But yes, this does seem to be a GRR extension office. Between their stubbornness with Saturday's clipper track and now this. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 18Z Euro 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 11 hours ago, Clinton said: Kind of excited to see how the models do with this, may get a indication on whether to trust them this year or not. Exactly....... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 For October standards, this is an impressive system and a potent one as well. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Not much change on either NAM model. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: 18Z Euro I keep thinking this is 5 days out like most storm threads we start but heck, that's a 35 hr map? Usually a done deal within that range. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 From MPX- (enjoy it up there and Fargo!) .CLIMATE... Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 A snowfall of 1 inch or greater in the Twin Cities typically doesn't occur for another month (this would be only the 10th time since the late 1800's that it's happened in the Twin Cities before October 21st). And, if the MSP airport measures more than 3.0 inches today, the daily record dating back to October 1916 will be shattered... 2 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 btw- event for later week looks interesting up that way--- 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Man that's a sharp cut off on S side of Twin Cities. HRRR and RAP Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 HRRR and RAP showing the warmer air moving a bit more north, hence lower totals to the south. Metro should be in good shape, especially if the advertised stripe of heavier precip materializes. 3-7" in the point. I say let's just get the 3" and set some records. Also, Fargo got his Advisory. Good luck up there! Nothing wrong with some early season fun! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Sky was supposed to clear a bit overnight, and thus, we were supposed to get well into the 20s. That didn't happen. Crap. 33.1°F. It will warm up today with a SE wind. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 First flakes currently falling. The system is here. 33.3*F. 3 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 12z NAMs with a 8-9" bullseye. Way overdone, but nice to see them not backing down. Offices don't seem to be jumping on the HRRR or RAP trends of minimal accumulation. Snow knocking on the doorstep now. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 You guys will have a nice daytime event up there 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Northeast SoDak is seeing some insane returns. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 First flakes starting here on the east side of Minneapolis. Looks like some 35 dBZ returns out to the west. MPX talking 1"/hr rates. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Good luck up there boys! Looks like MSP is in the bullseye. TWC has 8-12” in the forecast. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Tom said: Good luck up there boys! Looks like MSP is in the bullseye. TWC has 8-12” in the forecast. WHAT?? I'm not sure I'm buying that, but if it happens I can guarantee you that not many people are prepared for that....myself included. I haven't even changed the oil in the snowblower yet! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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