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June 2014 Observations and Discussion


Geos

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Indeed Niko's, I wish we would have had our Snowfall Forecast predictions back in October from the old forum and see who had snowfall even near to the actual amounts that fell.  I had a feeling it would be a snowy winter, but no way near record territory here in N IL, let along S MI where you live.

 

As for next winter, with an active sub tropical jet stream from a building "weak" El Nino, and with similar SST's setting up like last year...could we have another record breaking winter in the making???  Remember, last year the weather pattern was fairly progressive with a consistent +NAO.  If we can get some more blocking up near Greenland this winter, I can see deeper intrusions of the PV and longer lasting severe cold outbreaks if snow cover is deep enough.  Last year systems didn't really wind up into monsters or go neg tilt.  This year it may be a lot different.  I'm very curious to see how the LRC sets up in October/November.

 

One more key element regarding the SST, check out the very warm waters up near Bermuda.  Could another year of a consistent Bermuda High be setting up as well???  SE ridge???  These are all important elements setting up for next winter.  A lot of us on here were saying last season that winters of the late 70's may be heading our way...I sure hope so because last year was amazing and I will never forget.

Tom, if I remember correctly, I think from the old forum last autumn, numbers were ranging between 60-70" for my area and then lowered to 45-55" later on down the road, closer towards late autumn. I remember I was so disappointed when I saw my predicted snowfall numbers dropped to 45-55". Who would have known what was ahead, right. 

I did notice that last winter we never did get a big, huge , monster storm. They were all either strong storms or weak, but not in the huge territory. So, hopefully, next year we get to experience a monstrous one. Gosh, I'm getting all excited about next winter already and its not even July yet.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Here in Iowa we were only 1.5" from setting the all-time record. Hoping for a snowy winter 14-15!

Yikes..that's must have been nail biting for you. Hopefully you break it next winter.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A fight amongst the models and its Euro vs GFS once again in the 1-2 week period.  GFS trying to bring a cooler look over the Lakes region during the 4th of July weekend but the Euro for several runs is saying a torchy weekend.  The fight begins...

 

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The MJO is forecasted to head into Phase 6 which is a cooler phase in our region and the models are beginning to sniff that out now.  Both Euro/GFS have temps in the mid/upper 70's Fri/Sat which are real refreshing, it may warm up on Sunday though.  We'll see how these models react to the MJO.

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i am looking at a repeat from last winter that they said that the southeast will be getting below normal temps and above normal snowfall while the midwest to the northeast will be above normal temps and below normal snowfall bot this could be wrong that if we get blocking with the ao going negative so the polar vortex will showing it's ugly face again.

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i am looking at a repeat from last winter that they said that the southeast will be getting below normal temps and above normal snowfall while the midwest to the northeast will be above normal temps and below normal snowfall bot this could be wrong that if we get blocking with the ao going negative so the polar vortex will showing it's ugly face again.

a repeat of last winter would be exactly opposite of what you just described.

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also was watching joe bastardi's viedo on weatherbell website and he said that we will not have a super el nino like others have said so that means tha t we could be having a repeat with this winter from last winter with a -epo/wpo -ao slghtly =nao to more of a neutral nao and with the lrc coming back with the cen east cous being very cold and snowy.

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N WI may get down to mid/upper 40's at night, very strong cool shot coming Thu/Fri/Sat...good nights for bon fires and maybe put the mosquitos at bay.  As long as the sun is out, less wind, mid 70's are perfect.

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Took a break from the weather for a bit. Stopping back in now. 

 

It sure has been a boring last couple weeks in the local area. Except for the number of foggy mornings in a row, there hasn't been anything to write home about lately. 

 

Never seen so much fog in June before ... late June at that!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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hearing that a multiday severe outbreak is underway and also heard that monday is going to be the worse day of them all from geos area to chicago and all the way to st. louis because they might put us under a moderate to a high risk for tornadoes and strong damaging winds and for extremely large hail also a derecho could form with the dewpoint so high and with the mcs in iowa(55 to 65 knot low level jet stream and 100+jetstream a loft so that means that these storms is going to rotate on monday and henry margusity of accuweather just said that illinois is going to get hit hard on monday and he said that we might be upgraded to a moderate to a high risk over illinois).

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12z Euro still pumping mid/upper 80's region wide, even spotty low 90's nxt weekend!  Looks like a hot weekend is in the works.  The 4th looks superb.  Late Friday night there may be a sever weather threat into Saturday morning in Wisco.

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hearing that a multiday severe outbreak is underway and also heard that monday is going to be the worse day of them all from geos area to chicago and all the way to st. louis because they might put us under a moderate to a high risk for tornadoes and strong damaging winds and for extremely large hail also a derecho could form with the dewpoint so high and with the mcs in iowa(55 to 65 knot low level jet stream and 100+jetstream a loft so that means that these storms is going to rotate on monday and henry margusity of accuweather just said that illinois is going to get hit hard on monday and he said that we might be upgraded to a moderate to a high risk over illinois).

lol

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Remember when we heard the Antarctic Sea Ice was heading towards an "Irreversible" death spiral???  Well, today it just broke the all time record Sea Ice Anomaly!  I love it when Mother Nature flexes her muscles in the faces of the AGW crowd and shows who's the Boss.

 

Photo courtesy JB...

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Remember when we heard the Antarctic Sea Ice was heading towards an "Irreversible" death spiral??? Well, today it just broke the all time record Sea Ice Anomaly! I love it when Mother Nature flexes her muscles in the faces of the AGW crowd and shows who's the Boss.

 

Photo courtesy JB...

Tom, are the global temperatures on the rise? Sorry, I always argue with my mother about global warming and I'd love to see more data that shows global warming is not as big of an issue as some make it out to be.

 

And don't take that wrong. I actually do believe in global warming, of global climate change, but not to a large degree. I think it'll be a long long long time before anything really bad comes of it, and by that time someone will probably have an answer to many of our issues anyway.

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Nope, the global temps are on a decline.  They may spike this year bc of the the oncoming El Nino, but a downward trend has been clear over the last 5 years in the Sat Era.  However, NASA has misinformed the public and was caught red handed altering the temps over the last 20 years plus to show an increase in global temps.  What a bunch of crooks and cowards.

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Remember when we heard the Antarctic Sea Ice was heading towards an "Irreversible" death spiral???  Well, today it just broke the all time record Sea Ice Anomaly!  I love it when Mother Nature flexes her muscles in the faces of the AGW crowd and shows who's the Boss.

 

Photo courtesy JB...

 

That's incredible.

 

---

 

On the summer side of the global - it reached 84° here. Dewpoints were in the upper 60s today. Felt like a normal late June day.

 

Watch out for the potential for a severe weather outbreak tomorrow across the cornbelt. The severe wx parameters are looking rather intense between I-80 and I-94 in WI roughly.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This evening I got my heaviest rain ever... ~4.80", nearly all of that in only about 65 minutes.  It was a cool thing to watch, but I'm sure glad it stopped when it did.  I'm sure there are a lot of flooded cars throughout the city.  I used pumps to get the water out of my patio and window well.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It really cooled off after the storms moved through today. still raining some. only 65 degrees! Des Moines disco using the 'cold' word for early July standards:
HIGHS WILL BE BORDERLINE COLD FOR  
EARLY JULY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY 

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I finished with 1.56" of rain yesterday.   Thankfully, the 3-4" totals hit other areas this time.  My final June total is 14.38", an exceptionally wet month.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Those were some active storms that hit N IL last night that also dropped tremendous rainfall in such a short period of time.  Thankfully we are heading for a cooler and drier stretch of weather.  Tomorrow will be very cool with highs in the mid/upper 60's.  Should be great sleeping weather with the window cracked open.

 

I'm looking forward to a very nice 4th of July weekend.  Haven't gotten my fireworks yet this year, if I head up to Castle Rock Lake this weekend, I def will stock up on some Mortars and some nasty Cakes!  Bring it, BOOM!  I love this Holiday, I'll never stop feeling like a kid when we blow off fireworks.

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