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June 2014 Observations and Discussion


Geos

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Euro bringing in some real warmth region wide by next Wed/Thu and beyond...mini warm spell/heat wave in the cards

 

Given the recent moisture south and west of the Great Lakes, hard to see much of a heatwave in the near term, meaning next couple of weeks.  If it happens, I hope it's more of a dirty heatwave (ie. showers and storm chances galore).

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12z Euro Control/Ensemble want to create a very massive ridge over the region by next Friday/Saturday even up into the Upper Midwest through the extended (20th)...first heat wave of the season may be in the works.  GFS not really buying into it yet.

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Weather was perfect today. 70/49 here. 

 

Had some picturesque cirrus clouds drift by late this afternoon, complete with sun dogs.

 

10277049_10204108629222914_3803487809672

 

10392367_10204108629742927_4935624888513

 

10453446_10204108629862930_3190537133512

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GFS now starting to sing a different tune in the 1-2 week range.  Parts of KS/NE may be in the 100F heat dome come mid June.  We may see a ring of fire pattern  develop over the region or if the dome of heat is strong enough, it may push it farther north into the Upper Midwest.  Will be interesting to see how strong the models develop this ridge over the coming week.

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GFS now starting to sing a different tune in the 1-2 week range.  Parts of KS/NE may be in the 100F heat dome come mid June.  We may see a ring of fire pattern  develop over the region or if the dome of heat is strong enough, it may push it farther north into the Upper Midwest.  Will be interesting to see how strong the models develop this ridge over the coming week.

it looks like that the severe storms could go north of the dakotas and the upper midwest towards canada to the northeastren conus like you just said tom that a ring of fire pattren is in the works so that means towards the upper midwest towards the ohio valley will have temps in the 100s and this is a heat advisory to excessive heat warning criteria.

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I don't think 100's will stretch out into the Midwest/Ohio Valley.  That is pretty far fetched this early in the season.  The Plains have a better chance of hitting the century mark.  It's also too early to tell where this "Ring of Fire" pattern establishes.

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The last two Euro runs have dropped the heat wave in the 8-10 day period in favor of a more progressive flow.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Picked up a better-than-expected 0.97" of rain this afternoon.  Some spotters in the local area got 1.5+".

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Instead of bringing the heat this week, models are bringing it back next weekend into the following week and it could last a while.  CFSv2 has it building the week of the 16th and keeps the above normal regime through the end of June into beginning of July.  CFSv2 usually trends stronger on these signals as we get closer.

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was just looking for next weeks forecast that we are looking at a multiday severe weather and tornado outbreak and the instabilty shows that the cap by that time will weaken for thunderstorms to develop and so that means next week needs to be monitored for moderate to high risks by the spc and pds severe thunderstorm or tornado watches.

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Here are the latest CFSv2 temperature forecast departures Day 5-20.  Euro Ensembles agree with CFSv2, but Euro Control is a totally opposite and brings a deep trough into Midwest/Lakes.  Interesting to see which models win this battle.

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Here are the latest CFSv2 temperature forecast departures Day 5-20.  Euro Ensembles agree with CFSv2, but Euro Control is a totally opposite and brings a deep trough into Midwest/Lakes.  Interesting to see which models win this battle.

Do you have the Euro control?

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Over the last week or so we have seen the models advertise a heat wave in the Plains/Midwest regions around the 16/17th thru the 21st or so but that has all disappeared.  Personally, this has been a case study I will use for future potential "heat waves" that show up on model runs this summer.  In all honesty, I had suspected that we wouldn't see prolong heat waves of 5-7+ days this summer just because the transient pattern we have been seeing over the past 2 months and the amount of rain and moisture that is in the soil.  On the other hand, it does not mean we wont see days in the 90's, however, they wont stick around as long.  70's/80's are perfect in my book and severe weather!

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Over the last week or so we have seen the models advertise a heat wave in the Plains/Midwest regions around the 16/17th thru the 21st or so but that has all disappeared.  Personally, this has been a case study I will use for future potential "heat waves" that show up on model runs this summer.  In all honesty, I had suspected that we wouldn't see prolong heat waves of 5-7+ days this summer just because the transient pattern we have been seeing over the past 2 months and the amount of rain and moisture that is in the soil.  On the other hand, it does not mean we wont see days in the 90's, however, they wont stick around as long.  70's/80's are perfect in my book and severe weather!

 

I second that, I don't prefer to see the scorching heat that much of the southern half of the country sees, I prefer just enough heat to fuel thunderstorms, and plenty of comfortable days and sleeping nights in between.

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Model Mayhem continues...00z Euro Ensembles pushed the warmth back farther west into the Plains next week and showing much more ridging and warmth in the region.  Similar to 06z GFS run which is rather warm.

 

Yes, the Euro has really been flopping around badly.  Now, instead of bringing the western trough east across the midwest, it keeps it out west and even tries to bring a backdoor front into the region late in the week.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Models indicating a warm and humid air mass is in the works next week...summer time buoyancy and T-Storms are likely!  Not an ideal set up for making bon fires when its so humid out.

 

This is pretty much my ideal summer pattern.  We just came off a week of near ideal weather (except for Wednesday being cool and rainy) and now we get into a warm and stormy pattern while those south of us bake.  Makes me really appreciate our summer climo (particularly June before the heat and humidity tend to set in in earnest).

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