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June 3rd Potential Severe Weather Outbreak


gabel23

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I figured I would start a thread on this; I was surprised there wasn't one started yet! Anyway, it looks like damaging wind/hail looks to be the primary threat tomorrow. Here is what the spc was saying today...

 

KS...NEB...OK/TX PANHANDLES...SD...
EARLY IN THE DAY...AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ALONG A DIFFUSE FRONT FROM SD INTO MN...AND AIDED BY EARLY WARM
ADVECTION WITH A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE
SEVERE...BUT OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY.
CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
WRN NEB AND S CNTRL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AND/OR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS 40+ KT MIDLEVEL FLOW EMERGES. MODELS ALSO

INDICATE STRONG CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SIGNALS FURTHER SUGGESTING A
NOCTURNAL MCS ACROSS NEB/KS.

 

Heavy rain looks like a possibility also, should be an interesting day tomorrow! 

d12_fill.gif

day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

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I'll be out chasing tomorrow. Not sure how good the tornado chances are, but it's worth the chase to go out. Especially since it's basically been since Mother's Day, since anything has happened around here. Now Tuesday June 3rd..... That day has me pretty worried as it looks like a Mother's Day set up again with a warm front, insane shear, and plenty of CAPE and high dews. I just hope all the tornadoes aren't rain wrapped again

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Guys! This is going to be our biggest outbreak of the year, let's get this forum back on track!

 

Moderate Risk has been issued as expected. All the paramaters are coming together for a huge outbreak. looking eerily similar to the mother's day outbreak as well, although it does not appear morning convection will be an issue here. I'm thinking a high risk is warranted for parts of Nebraska by tommorows update. Going to be a huge day.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_any.gif

 

Beautiful, that's a huge risk area, so I'm banking the narrowed portion will be a high risk, and it looks like the shear/instability values are highest in Central/Eastern Nebraska, where the risk will probably be warranted. I am a tad worried it may be a bit north according to the NAM/GFS, we shall see. 

 

Disco: POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS TUESDAY WITH A THREAT

FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND. 

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Guys! This is going to be our biggest outbreak of the year, let's get this forum back on track!

 

Moderate Risk has been issued as expected. All the paramaters are coming together for a huge outbreak. looking eerily similar to the mother's day outbreak as well, although it does not appear morning convection will be an issue here. I'm thinking a high risk is warranted for parts of Nebraska by tommorows update. Going to be a huge day.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_any.gif

 

Beautiful, that's a huge risk area, so I'm banking the narrowed portion will be a high risk, and it looks like the shear/instability values are highest in Central/Eastern Nebraska, where the risk will probably be warranted. I am a tad worried it may be a bit north according to the NAM/GFS, we shall see. 

 

Disco: POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS TUESDAY WITH A THREAT

FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND. 

Agreed, shear and instability looks scary high. Warm front will also be draped somewhere in our area and individual storms looks to run east along there and eventually congeal into an mcs!!

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What time will this weather arrive in the Omaha area?  My little guy has a baseball camp at Creighton until 2:30 and I don't want him that far away from me...and I don't want to be on the road at the wrong time. 

You should be fine then, storms won't be in Omaha until later in the evening. 

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This forum has been absolutely dead.  Nobody has posted in June observations.  Big outbreak tomorrow!!

If I had anything down here to rave about I'd help you out. A good thunderstorm would be welcomed.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Holy cow wild day today, just another warning for my area. Note, look at the speed of the storm!!

 

UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 956 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WOLBACH TO NEAR ST. LIBORY...MOVING EAST AT 85 MPH.

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTRAL CITY...FULLERTON...STROMSBURG...OSCEOLA...SHELBY...
PALMER...CLARKS...SILVER CREEK...POLK...HORDVILLE AND ARCHER.

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