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As we near Halloween and the end of Daylight Savings (which ends on Sunday at 2:00am CDT), we all have much to look forward to this month in what has been a wild and crazy 2020.  Does the mayhem continue into November with regards to the weather???  How will the weather look like for the Holiday Season???  The modeling have been flipping back and forth for this month but in the near term, it appears that the consensus is starting to dial in on a Zonal Flow to open up November which fits the BSR pattern quite well.  Our nation shall have pleasant and quiet weather from coast to coast on Election Day which should aid in record turn out IMO.  Let's discuss...

 

The month will open up with a strong CF sweeping through most of the Sub, but especially near the GL's region where there may be a short period of LES across the MIT/U.P. and eastern GL's this Sunday.  @jaster220 @westMJim may be seeing their first flakes this coming weekend and join the rest of us who have been lucky to see Snow this Autumn.  The Euro also agrees with the modeling of a period of LES as temps crash Sat night into Sun.  As temps "fall back", coincidentally, our "time" will "fallback" this evening as well.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_39.png

 

Moving along, here we are, in anticipation of what will likely be one of the most important elections of our lifetime, mother nature may be delivering a superb weather pattern for literally the entire CONUS.  That is one expansive 500mb ridge.  This ridge, however, will be transient and I do expect it to move east and allow a storm to dig into the Rockies around the 7th/8th period where a strong storm will target the heartland.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_28.png

 

Of late, the modeling is picking up on what has been a common theme thus far this season and developing high lat blocking.  In recent days, the models have flipped back to the pattern we have seen in early October right when the LRC was developing.  Check out the 5-day 500mb mean maps below off both the EPS and GEFS from last night.  Are we going to see a repeat SW FLow pattern heading into Week 2 of Nov???  I do believe so.  Is there another Arctic outbreak knifing down the Leeward side of the Rockies???  The pattern is setting up and I do foresee it repeating this month.

 

2.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.png

 

What does the CFSv2 show for this month??? Well, in the last 3 days or so, it's highlighting a trend towards an amplified North American 500mb pattern.  Now, I will say, this could trend the other way and more towards a SW Flow aloft due to the long range clues I look at with regards to the warm pools growing at 10mb/30mb over the eastern CONUS.

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

1.png

 

Finally, what about the Thanksgiving Holiday forecast???  The recent Euro Weeklies continue to advertise a wintry pattern for the western and northern Sub.  Let's see if the trends continue in tomorrow's run.

 

 

3.png

 

4.png

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Crazy to think that just a week ago we were in the 70's all week! This turned out to be quite the ice storm to say the least. Ice accretion is around .5-.75" and trees are breaking like match sticks.

Came to West Virginia last week and have been here since. I’ve been lucky to have a lot of time off with Covid. It’s easily the most beautiful place I’ve ever been. Too bad the storm wiped most of the

Good Sunday morning.  The GFS has been trending stronger and colder with our next system and could there be another tropical influence on this storm?  As the models begin to digest the blocking this s

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6 hours ago, james1976 said:

Here we go. And a couple days before this N Dakota gets hit hard with a powerful storm. Pattern change around the 7th.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_51.png

Wet dream range GFS will produce wet dreams.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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30 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

If this flow pans out for the US, we would be looking at pattern that we haven't seen in ages! 

700hv.conus.png

Whoa.  I like that setup.  Many great memories of stormy Novembers.  1983, 2000, and 2005 come to mind with storms just prior too or around Thanksgiving.

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57 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Wet dream range GFS will produce wet dreams.

Main thing is the pattern is gonna change. Details of course a long way out. Should be a nice system for some of us.

That Euro flow looks nice👆

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2 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Main thing is the pattern is gonna change. Details of course a long way out. Should be a nice system for some of us.

That Euro flow looks nice👆

Yes it does. Cold air bleeds from Canada at the end of the Euro run. GFS looks similar. We will be entering another cold pattern the weekend after next.

I just wouldn't trust GFS >240 for systems.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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48 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Whoa.  I like that setup.  Many great memories of stormy Novembers.  1983, 2000, and 2005 come to mind with storms just prior too or around Thanksgiving.

Those 3 years had really good novembers! Bench mark blizzard the weekend of thanksgiving 1983. I remember the thanksgiving blizzard in 2005 but that pretty much was places west of 281. I was going to college in Lincoln at the time but a lot of my friends out in UNK had a fun time that weekend! Winter of 2000 was known for extreme cold, dry powder snows 3 weeks in a row in December. I was a junior in high school that year and we had a lot of snow days the first couple of weeks in December. 

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4 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Those 3 years had really good novembers! Bench mark blizzard the weekend of thanksgiving 1983. I remember the thanksgiving blizzard in 2005 but that pretty much was places west of 281. I was going to college in Lincoln at the time but a lot of my friends out in UNK had a fun time that weekend! Winter of 2000 was known for extreme cold, dry powder snows 3 weeks in a row in December. I was a junior in high school that year and we had a lot of snow days the first couple of weeks in December. 

1983 we got stranded at my Aunt's house for 3 days at Thanksgiving.  What a great time for a young kid.  2005 was right at the end of Thanksgiving Break so we got the Monday and Tuesday after the break as snow days.  The 2000 storm was in the middle of November, I thing worse south of the interstate.

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4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Whoa.  I like that setup.  Many great memories of stormy Novembers.  1983, 2000, and 2005 come to mind with storms just prior too or around Thanksgiving.

Please please please....

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Incoming...Indian Summer weather later next week....ya'll ready for some real nice late Autumn warmth???  High temps could approach 80F out in the Plains/Upper MW if models are right.  That's gonna feel soo amazing for some of you after experiencing lows in the 10's/20's!  A good stretch of nice weather is looking likely for the entire Sub next week into the following weekend before things flip around.

1.png

 

 

 

 

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Here we go again...would this be Round #3 where we see a big trough in the west that ushers down an Arctic invasion down the Rockies into the heartland???  All the models are latching onto a tanking -EPO and high lat blocking for Week 2 of November.  We began to see a taste of this type of pattern in Sept when rare snows hit the Rockies and Denver, CO saw their first snows of the season.  Now that we are comfortably in the new LRC pattern, this is beginning to look like a rolling theme for this cold season.  The SER is also showing signals of redeveloping next week as well.

 

Whoops!!!  I'm seeing Autumn '13-'14 flashbacks when models didn't "see" the NE PAC ridge...this is the exact opposite of what was happening in Autumn '11...

 

1.gif

2.gif

 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Here we go again...would this be Round #3 where we see a big trough in the west that ushers down an Arctic invasion down the Rockies into the heartland???  All the models are latching onto a tanking -EPO and high lat blocking for Week 2 of November.  We began to see a taste of this type of pattern in Sept when rare snows hit the Rockies and Denver, CO saw their first snows of the season.  Now that we are comfortably in the new LRC pattern, this is beginning to look like a rolling theme for this cold season.  The SER is also showing signals of redeveloping next week as well.

 

Whoops!!!  I'm seeing Autumn '13-'14 flashbacks when models didn't "see" the NE PAC ridge...this is the exact opposite of what was happening in Autumn '11...

 

1.gif

2.gif

 

Pretty good agreement on this happening.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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This can go away any time. Golf courses here are closing end of October. And this cold wave managed to cool the lake off to the point I don't think I'm going back out. This fall has been super disappointing and the fact that in mid November we have a blast of Arctic air that's going to miss me sucks. If this keeps going this way it's going to be a late start to my snowboarding season with an early end to my summer and fall activities. Sorry to whine but this weather so far has been the exact opposite of what I'd like to see for my outdoor sports.

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7 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Nice and warm weather in store across almost the entire country. 

 

sfct_anom.conus.png

Tropical vacation to Grand Forks 🌴

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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3 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Tropical vacation to Grand Forks 🌴

Yes, feel free to come

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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21 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Excited to golf next week and bask in the warmth.  Already got a tee time for next Wednesday and Thursday  

Looking like the warmth will extend into next weekend as well.  mid 60's in November?   I'll take it!

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Per NOAA:

A progressive mid level trough will undergo considerable
amplification as it advances across the Upper Midwest into the Great
Lakes Sat night into Sunday with some phasing of northern stream
short wave impulses. The approach of this system will drive a robust
dynamic response across Lower Mi in light of the degree of mid level
height falls. This combined with a narrow plume of deep layer
moisture preceeding the sfc cold front will force a narrow region of
showers ahead of the cold front, traversing Se Mi late Sat night
into early Sun morning. The rapid amplification of this long wave
trough will drive very cold air from central Canada into the Great
Lakes region on Sunday, as 850mb temps are forecast to drop to -10C
Sun afternoon. Post frontal subsidence/isentropic descent will
produce gusty post frontal winds. Cold air advection will also
deepen the mixed layer during the course of the day. Model soundings
and trends among ensemble members continue to support wind gusts in
the 30 to 40 MPH range, below advisory criteria.

There is good agreement among the model suite that deep layer
moisture will wrap around the upper wave as it lift northeast and
overspread much of Se Mi Sun afternoon and evening. This moisture,
combined with the moisture flux off the lakes will support scattered
to numerous snow showers Sun afternoon/evening. Model soundings show
steep sfc to 700mb lapse rates during the afternoon/evening, which
will enhance the convective component to the snow showers. This may
actually support a few heavier bursts of snow, and may lead to some
minor accumulations.
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@Niko

I know you've had more time to keep an eye on the Sunday event. Indeed, liking the trends and seems we will have our first real encounter with "winter" 2020-21 to begin Novemberrrr!

 

20201101 Gridast ICONs.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Funny how Peeps out east were also posting that the last time they had a big snow in October the following winter was a dud. Looks like we've dodged the old October snowstorm bullet. Tbh tho, of '89, '97, '06 October snowstorms only the Mega-Nino of 97-98 was bad for snow. The other 2 were quite snowy around these parts.

Whether the S. Lakes storm track shows up to the game or not later this winter is TBD. What I am liking and seems to be a recurring theme are these amplifying clipper type systems like we see on Sunday. Picture this guy a bit further south during actual winter and these can get real fun for our area.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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ICON with a preview of coming winter attractions for Sunday. Most MR guidance shows a decent LES streamer on a NW to SE trajectory forming some time between 15 and 18z Sunday mid-day. Most also want to keep it mostly SW of here, but I may get side-swiped. 3 and 6 hr increments make it impossible to know for sure. Oh well, it will surely be blustery and feel more like December. Leafs should be flying all over the place whether the snow is or not.

 

 

20201031 0z h42 Surface at 1 pm Sunday.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@Niko

I know you've had more time to keep an eye on the Sunday event. Indeed, liking the trends and seems we will have our first real encounter with "winter" 2020-21 to begin Novemberrrr!

 

20201101 Gridast ICONs.PNG

Nice way to open up Novembrrr!!!  Ya, great day to stay inside and watch some football....my local grid calls for daytime temps struggling to reach the 40F mark.  It's gonna be cold with those gusty NW winds and WC's in the 20's.  Last night, I was driving back home from a bar up north in Libertyville (Lake county) and the temp crashed quickly into the upper 20's and I gotta admit, my body hasn't acclimated to this cold.  I'm wondering if my blood thinned out so much living in AZ this past summer...kinda excited to go back there again before winter settles in and bask in the warmer temps and sunshine again.  Hope you score some LES streamers in your back yard!

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59 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Off topic or out of area but anyone see the Florida to NC mauler on the GFS(00z)? 

I'm out of ways to say the tropics are off the chain in 2020. They have almost broken the naming system.gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh168-372.thumb.gif.7e1c3a594c8c4e20221ab8abb8939e61.gif

 

Just another day living near the GOM this year...my goodness, but this pattern has been relentless down there.  Preseason ideas of an active GOM have transpired quite well this past hurricane season given the LRC pattern that set up last year.  This year's pattern is already shaping up like it may rival 2020 and create another active 2021 season.  Wild times ahead.

 

 

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4 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Off topic or out of area but anyone see the Florida to NC mauler on the GFS(00z)? 

I'm out of ways to say the tropics are off the chain in 2020. They have almost broken the naming system.gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh168-372.thumb.gif.7e1c3a594c8c4e20221ab8abb8939e61.gif

 

They are monitoring yet another disturbance down in the Caribbean Sea area. This one could be the potential down the road to break the all-time record hurricane season.

BTW: ETA is the next named storm.

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/15m-3-1.png?w=632

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Three straight windows open days next week.

Quote
Today
Partly sunny, with a temperature rising to near 48 by noon, then falling to around 38 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a west northwest wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to 27 to 32 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 22. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 37. Northwest wind 10 to 14 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 29. South wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 53. West southwest wind 8 to 11 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 36. South southwest wind 8 to 11 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 60. Southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 38. South southwest wind 8 to 11 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Southwest wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Southwest wind around 8 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 62. South southwest wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 39. South southwest wind 8 to 11 mph.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. West wind 8 to 14 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Euro @ 240. It's coming back. Enjoy the 60s while we have them.

Euro 2.png

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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18 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Good news with the time change tonight, extra hour of sleep and the weather models come out 1 hour earlier tomorrow

The bad news is that it gets dark a hour earlier. As I am not a morning person I would rather have it stay light later in the evening but that is just me.  

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Headlines baby!

Quote


.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

- High winds and snow showers Sunday and Sunday night

Forecast wind profiles continue to show 40 to 45 knots in the
mixing layer for Sunday afternoon and evening so we expect the
potential for wind gusts over 45 mph. We have expanded the wind
advisory across the entire CWA.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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How Yoopers welcome Novembrr

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
415 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

MIZ006-007-013-014-085-010900-
/O.NEW.KMQT.WW.Y.0021.201101T1200Z-201102T0000Z/
Alger-Luce-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-Northern Schoolcraft-
Including the cities of Grand Marais, Munising, Newberry,
Escanaba, Gladstone, Manistique, and Seney
415 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected off Lake Superior. Blowing
  snow also expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches,
  lowest along and south of Highway US-2 and greatest in the
  Chatham, Trenary and Sundell areas. Winds gusting as high as 50
  to 60 mph, strongest along Lake Superior.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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This can stop by any time this winter. Low Res GEM makes for nice eye-candy here with it's wide areal coverage. NAM's much more realistic with a narrow band coming into SWMI. Kuchera has me at 0.1-0.3" so I might just get on the board if things go right.

 

20201031 12z Euro h24 Surf & 500mb.png

20201031 18z GEM h30 Surf.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Colder air is coming back according to 12z Euro. 

23FFCE6C-EA55-42EC-9290-3DC7D8C72097.png

I was about to pop in and say, the GFS has to be "sleeping in" on this deal. Theres just no possible way we were going back to warm and boring. Changes incoming.....

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8 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I was about to pop in and say, the GFS has to be "sleeping in" on this deal. Theres just no possible way we were going back to warm and boring. Changes incoming.....

Based on my 3 years here, that’s not an unusual scenario 😆

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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4 hours ago, Niko said:

Here we go.....Headline out!

Jaster, ya ready?!

NOAA:

Hazardous Weather Outlook


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
430 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

MIZ049-054-063-070-076-083-012030-
Huron-Tuscola-St. Clair-Macomb-Wayne-Monroe-
430 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory is in effect tonight for the Lake Erie and
Lake St Clair shoreline. Please see the latest Lakeshore Hazard
message for details.

Numerous snow showers are expected Sunday into Sunday evening, along
with west-northwest wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph. Snowfall
accumulations of a dusting to 1 inch are expected.

 

 

I'm ready.. but have plans to spend the afternoon over in SEMI, lol. If not, I'd likely be heading over to the big lake to see some of the best gusts/wave action expected there.

Quote

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

For the most part our ongoing forecast looks fine. I did fine tune
the precipitation to show a break between the showers ahead of the
cold front and the wrap around snow showers behind the front.

There is enough cold air with this system to bring the freezing
level to the ground or very near to the ground by early afternoon
so I could see grassy surfaces down wind of the better fetch snow
showers getting and inch or so Sunday. The higher terrain areas
north of Grand Rapids would see the most. There seems to be a
preferred area of snow accumulations near US-131 just south of
Grand Raids. In that area we have good lift in the DGZ and
cloud tops look to be near 9000 ft, so these could be decent snow
showers.

The gusty winds look very much on track too. The latest HRRR is
still showing gusts in the 40 to 45 mph, the ECMWF has gusts in
the 45 to 50 mph range.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Frankfort, a coastal city known for it's rail-era transport ferries was my vacation destination of choice during this (COVID) summer of 2020.

The first shot is at the city beach at the end of July. The calmness of summer will be a thing of the past as the "Gales of November" make their appearance tomorrow.

Conditions at the lake front tomorrow per APX: Winds gusting 56 mph, waves 12-15 ft.    Surf's up!

 

20200730-2.jpg

20201101 Frankfort waves.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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47 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Frankfort, a coastal city known for it's rail-era transport ferries was my vacation destination of choice during this (COVID) summer of 2020.

The first shot is at the city beach at the end of July. The calmness of summer will be a thing of the past as the "Gales of November" make their appearance tomorrow.

Conditions at the lake front tomorrow per APX: Winds gusting 56 mph, waves 12-15 ft.    Surf's up!

 

20200730-2.jpg

20201101 Frankfort waves.PNG

Jaster, if I ever get to scratch it off my list one day, I'd like to come spend a week as a lighthouse keeper up there sometime or at Crisp Point near Whitefish. I'd probably lose myself with joy like a little child if I ever got the opportunity. It would be wonderful.

Don't know if that's near where you are but I've done research that led me there.

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Almost as fast as I demonstrate a great reason why the future looks really bright for our winter(It IS still a month away.), I am reminded of a reason why I have to be objective. There is, in a few of the models; a very intense warm wave in this pattern and over the N. Pac you have this ugly mug (solid ridge) popping it's ugly head up.

gfs_mslpaNorm_nhem_15.thumb.png.dfab2162813b89cba76d065503461329.png

Want to erase the pooling pattern and the heat out of the N Pac also? Flip to this.

Do I think it will? Not this winter, but November could break us as this Niña is a bit unprecedented in terms of underforecasted strength and arriving at a pretty unusual time of year. If I understand correctly, a Niña is usually peaking or peaked at this point and this one is still on the rise.

Blocking in the long run suggests the ridge doesn't transition in later cycles but I've been here before, too.

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