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November 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Headlines baby!

Quote


.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

- High winds and snow showers Sunday and Sunday night

Forecast wind profiles continue to show 40 to 45 knots in the
mixing layer for Sunday afternoon and evening so we expect the
potential for wind gusts over 45 mph. We have expanded the wind
advisory across the entire CWA.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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How Yoopers welcome Novembrr

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
415 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

MIZ006-007-013-014-085-010900-
/O.NEW.KMQT.WW.Y.0021.201101T1200Z-201102T0000Z/
Alger-Luce-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-Northern Schoolcraft-
Including the cities of Grand Marais, Munising, Newberry,
Escanaba, Gladstone, Manistique, and Seney
415 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected off Lake Superior. Blowing
  snow also expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches,
  lowest along and south of Highway US-2 and greatest in the
  Chatham, Trenary and Sundell areas. Winds gusting as high as 50
  to 60 mph, strongest along Lake Superior.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This can stop by any time this winter. Low Res GEM makes for nice eye-candy here with it's wide areal coverage. NAM's much more realistic with a narrow band coming into SWMI. Kuchera has me at 0.1-0.3" so I might just get on the board if things go right.

 

20201031 12z Euro h24 Surf & 500mb.png

20201031 18z GEM h30 Surf.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I was about to pop in and say, the GFS has to be "sleeping in" on this deal. Theres just no possible way we were going back to warm and boring. Changes incoming.....

Based on my 3 years here, that’s not an unusual scenario 😆

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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4 hours ago, Niko said:

Here we go.....Headline out!

Jaster, ya ready?!

NOAA:

Hazardous Weather Outlook


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
430 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

MIZ049-054-063-070-076-083-012030-
Huron-Tuscola-St. Clair-Macomb-Wayne-Monroe-
430 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory is in effect tonight for the Lake Erie and
Lake St Clair shoreline. Please see the latest Lakeshore Hazard
message for details.

Numerous snow showers are expected Sunday into Sunday evening, along
with west-northwest wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph. Snowfall
accumulations of a dusting to 1 inch are expected.

 

 

I'm ready.. but have plans to spend the afternoon over in SEMI, lol. If not, I'd likely be heading over to the big lake to see some of the best gusts/wave action expected there.

Quote

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

For the most part our ongoing forecast looks fine. I did fine tune
the precipitation to show a break between the showers ahead of the
cold front and the wrap around snow showers behind the front.

There is enough cold air with this system to bring the freezing
level to the ground or very near to the ground by early afternoon
so I could see grassy surfaces down wind of the better fetch snow
showers getting and inch or so Sunday. The higher terrain areas
north of Grand Rapids would see the most. There seems to be a
preferred area of snow accumulations near US-131 just south of
Grand Raids. In that area we have good lift in the DGZ and
cloud tops look to be near 9000 ft, so these could be decent snow
showers.

The gusty winds look very much on track too. The latest HRRR is
still showing gusts in the 40 to 45 mph, the ECMWF has gusts in
the 45 to 50 mph range.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Frankfort, a coastal city known for it's rail-era transport ferries was my vacation destination of choice during this (COVID) summer of 2020.

The first shot is at the city beach at the end of July. The calmness of summer will be a thing of the past as the "Gales of November" make their appearance tomorrow.

Conditions at the lake front tomorrow per APX: Winds gusting 56 mph, waves 12-15 ft.    Surf's up!

 

20200730-2.jpg

20201101 Frankfort waves.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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47 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Frankfort, a coastal city known for it's rail-era transport ferries was my vacation destination of choice during this (COVID) summer of 2020.

The first shot is at the city beach at the end of July. The calmness of summer will be a thing of the past as the "Gales of November" make their appearance tomorrow.

Conditions at the lake front tomorrow per APX: Winds gusting 56 mph, waves 12-15 ft.    Surf's up!

 

20200730-2.jpg

20201101 Frankfort waves.PNG

Jaster, if I ever get to scratch it off my list one day, I'd like to come spend a week as a lighthouse keeper up there sometime or at Crisp Point near Whitefish. I'd probably lose myself with joy like a little child if I ever got the opportunity. It would be wonderful.

Don't know if that's near where you are but I've done research that led me there.

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Almost as fast as I demonstrate a great reason why the future looks really bright for our winter(It IS still a month away.), I am reminded of a reason why I have to be objective. There is, in a few of the models; a very intense warm wave in this pattern and over the N. Pac you have this ugly mug (solid ridge) popping it's ugly head up.

gfs_mslpaNorm_nhem_15.thumb.png.dfab2162813b89cba76d065503461329.png

Want to erase the pooling pattern and the heat out of the N Pac also? Flip to this.

Do I think it will? Not this winter, but November could break us as this Niña is a bit unprecedented in terms of underforecasted strength and arriving at a pretty unusual time of year. If I understand correctly, a Niña is usually peaking or peaked at this point and this one is still on the rise.

Blocking in the long run suggests the ridge doesn't transition in later cycles but I've been here before, too.

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I'm ready.. but have plans to spend the afternoon over in SEMI, lol. If not, I'd likely be heading over to the big lake to see some of the best gusts/wave action expected there.

 

Always fun to see the first flakes of the season flying and perhaps a dusting here and there. Kinda gets you ready for the holidays, even though, this year, it will be weird w covid around.

Btw: make sure you yell out "Nikoooooooooooo" as you are driving by SEMI! 😉❄️

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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13 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Three straight windows open days next week.

 

In terms of likeable but extremely variable weather, this autumn has hit 10/10 for every enjoyable type I could imagine except one. 

......heavy snow or snow in general.

I cannot complain one bit though. Not one. 

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Welcome to November!  As we all "fall back" an hour, models coming in an hour earlier.  It's that time of year again...cheers!  

 

Like Clinton mentioned the other day, this Autumn season has been filled with windy days.  Yesterday, I was outside most of the day doing yard work and cleaning up dead plants.  I'll leave the leaf raking for Monday's job as today the winds are supposed to gust even higher than yesterday.  The cold temps from the night before really helped in turning more color and leafs were flying off yesterday.  The tree's in my back yard are about 75% bare.  Should be one of the earliest seasons in recent memory where the trees are bare by mid November at this rate.  Meantime, the powerful CF has made its way through and temps are beginning to tank.  It's going to be a cold and blustery Sunday...hang onto your hats!

 

Big rise in the SOI, no surprise a big ridge across the Eastern CONUS in the extended...

SOI Dashboard

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values


SOI values for 1 Nov, 2020
Average SOI for last 30 days 4.19
Average SOI for last 90 days 8.16
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 28.76

 

 

 

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Good Sunday morning.  The GFS has been trending stronger and colder with our next system and could there be another tropical influence on this storm?  As the models begin to digest the blocking this system could explode and be our first share the wealth storm of the season.

sn10_acc.conus.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

1605139200-FjWNWHrCM5k.png

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While this in mostly a recap of October I will post it here and also in the October section.

For better or worse welcome to November. October 2020 at Grand Rapids had a mean temperature of 47.8 that was a departure of -3.2. The high for the month was 79 on the 9th and the low was 25 on the 31st there was a trace of reported snow fall. This was the coldest October since 2006. At Muskegon they had a mean of 49.9 that was a departure there of -0.8 the highest was 75 on the 9th and the low was 29 on the 31st. and they also reported a trace of snow fall. At Holland they had a mean of 47.9 and that was good for a departure of 3.7. The highest at Holland in October was 77 on the 9th and the low was 29 on the 31st. And to the east at Lansing the mean there was 47.5 for a departure of -2.8 the highest there was 78 on the 9th and the low was 25 on the 31st There was no snow fall reported at Lansing in October. At this time it is windy and there is some light snow and leaves falling here at my house with a temperature of 38.

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17 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Headed down to Omaha on Thursday and then KC. Gonna enjoy some upper 60s and low 70s for a few days before reality strikes again. Road trippin’ with the wife for a few days to get out of the house. Weather looks perfect for the drive. 

Perfect timing weather wise...have fun and be safe!  I'll be traveling myself and flying to AZ tomorrow and prob stay through end of November.  I still have to finish up yard work and raking the leaves before I take off.  Enjoy the warmer temps as I'll be doing the same!

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Exactly 2 wks after I posted this Obs from MQT, we here in Marshall have joined the (winter) club. Had to run up to the mkt and boy were huge flakes flying as I walked out. 1st class squalls on/off this late morning. Can clearly see when the secondary CF came thru and dropped temps at the airport 7 deg's in 20 mins. 21F WC. It's a very raw November 1st out there! Looks like another line of squalls knocking on the door per radar loop.

 

20201017 NWS Marquette Obs 1 pm.PNG

20201101 NWS Marshall Obs 11 am.PNG

20201101 8 am 2ndry CF.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Exactly 2 wks after I posted this Obs from MQT, we here in Marshall have joined the (winter) club. Had to run up to the mkt and boy were huge flakes flying as I walked out. 1st class squalls on/off this late morning. Can clearly see when the secondary CF came thru and dropped temps at the airport 7 deg's in 20 mins. 21F WC. It's a very raw November 1st out there! Looks like another line of squalls knocking on the door per radar loop.

 

20201017 NWS Marquette Obs 1 pm.PNG

20201101 NWS Marshall Obs 11 am.PNG

20201101 8 am 2ndry CF.PNG

Enjoy bud....and plenty more to come.❄️

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently getting light snowshowers.......temp at 37F and dropping during the afternoon, as temps tumble through the 30s and into the 20s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Second week of November, temps go back to normal and then BN, especially, 3rd and final week. This is perfect and that is what I wanted for November. Nothing extreme, in terms of snowfall, or frigid temps. Just flurries and a dusting here and there to get you in the holiday spirit.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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ETA has been formed.......

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/page-2.jpg?w=475

Note:

Nearly one month is left in the already record-setting 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on Nov. 30. Eta has become the 28th named tropical storm of the season -- tying 2005's record of 28 systems in one year. This is also the first time Eta has ever been used in the Atlantic basin.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been ratcheting through the Greek alphabet -- for only the second time in history -- to name tropical systems once the designated list for 2020 was exhausted. 2005 was the only other year to use Greek letters, and Zeta was last on the list for that notorious season.

 

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
342 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

MIZ047-048-053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-021000-
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-
Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
342 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A wind advisory is in effect this afternoon and evening. In addition
to gusty winds, scattered to numerous snow showers are expected
today. These snow showers may briefly become heavy, resulting in a
dusting of snow on unpaved surfaces.

Note: It feels like December out there.....temp currently at 34F and dropping into the 20s throughout the day w snowshowers around.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, I see JB on WxBell updated his Winter thoughts.  Can you elaborate on here what he is thinking now?

He says no forecast changes since last month.  He mentions the Pioneer and CFSv2SST supports a colder forecast. Mentioned analog years of 1983-84, 1995-96, 2017-18 were heavy hitters in terms of snowfall that had this kind of support from the CFS.

"Such a pattern could produce a lot of snow, especially since the precipitation in the analog patterns shows plenty of above-normal amounts and even some intersecting of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. While not etched in stone, simply above normal precipitation implies, even in warm winters, one or two storms that can sneak in and provide significant snowfalls (example 2016)."

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Currently light snow and very windy. Temp is at 33F. Wcf in the teens.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The last time it snowed here in SEMI (in my area) was back on May 12th, 2020 and today Nov 1st, 2020, the first flakes were seen again.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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8 hours ago, Jaycee said:

Came to West Virginia last week and have been here since. I’ve been lucky to have a lot of time off with Covid. It’s easily the most beautiful place I’ve ever been. Too bad the storm wiped most of the leaves but I was able to get glimpses of it atleast! 

1F2C8C7F-D740-4FE7-AE44-8712072353FD.jpeg

 

 

D6F08C61-E6DA-477C-99B5-D5061DDC5C6A.jpeg

F3AFB29C-FDF0-489E-8E9A-6E980AD5C947.jpeg

Truly beautiful.

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8 hours ago, Clinton said:

I thought it might go in that direction and it absorbs yet another tropical system man this has the potential to be a very big storm for November can we get a blizzard maybe.

Yeah, that 12z run was a mega-tease for your location. 18z moves it further NW. Looks healthy but it's a long ways out. Still, better than the big fat zero on that map for these parts, lol.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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