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November 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Came home from my sister's place in SEMI to find the 1st smattering of snow on my deck. The airport unit reported (6) squalls between 10:15 and the next 6 hrs. If they had happened simultaneously, it may have added up to something measurable. As it is, I could only give it a "T" for the day (which I don't record tbh). Still, I ran into a couple serious squalls east of here and watched my car thermo drop from 36F to 30F and the hvy SHSN blowing across the pavement made it look just like a real winter's day for a few miles anyhow. Winds were stout as well. Looks like Frankfort exceeded their forecast with a peak gust at 58 mph. Around here was more in the 35-40 mph range. I did see some reports of 60 mph near Holland/Grand Haven along the coast even from early this morning. This thing set in quickly. 

Now we go back to tranquility pattern and since we miss out on the Plains action, it may be a full 9-10 day wait for anything as exciting as today's wx. LR GFS has a couple systems in the d10-15 range that could be wound-up wind makers here similar to today.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 hours ago, Clinton said:

He says no forecast changes since last month.  He mentions the Pioneer and CFSv2SST supports a colder forecast. Mentioned analog years of 1983-84, 1995-96, 2017-18 were heavy hitters in terms of snowfall that had this kind of support from the CFS.

"Such a pattern could produce a lot of snow, especially since the precipitation in the analog patterns shows plenty of above-normal amounts and even some intersecting of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. While not etched in stone, simply above normal precipitation implies, even in warm winters, one or two storms that can sneak in and provide significant snowfalls (example 2016)."

Pencil me a little confused buddy, but I have that text (quoted) as being from his early October update, the one with all the maps dated 9/30/20.

You certain there's nothing newer?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looking out into the extended, if you like extended Indian Summer weather, the LR clue I'm seeing for the eastern CONUS is your friend.  I think we will see an extended period of troughs targeting the western NAMER coastline based off of one of the LR clues I'm seeing.  It appears there may be a raging PAC jet targeting the west coast.  Next weeks cool down across the Sub could be brief and flip back to an extended ridge-like pattern.  The warmer anomalies showing up at both 10mb/30mb over the entire central/eastern CONUS from mid Oct towards the end of the run translate to a ridge by Week 2.  This pattern may in fact last into the Thanksgiving holiday.  Last weeks Euro weeklies showed this so I'm curious to see what it has to say in today's run.

 

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

Not only that, but the PV is forecast to relocate on the other side of the Pole in Eurasia in the extended....

gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

 

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Well we had the first widespread snow fall of the season here yesterday.  Here at my house there were several periods of snow and snow mixed with hail. And yes it was windy. The overnight low here was 24.1 but  it looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 27. At this time it is partly cloudy and 32 here at my house.

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Sunny skies currently w temps in the 20s. Had a light dusting of snow yesterday, which was perfect to set the mood up for the holidays. Mainly rooftops, grassy surfaces and etc.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GFS would be an ice to rain event in Eastern Nebraska. Yuck. I'll take the moisture though. It's still very early in the season so a Dakota cutter would be no surprise. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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18 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Have been really busy today and just saw the 12Z GFS.  My gosh.  What a storm that would be for my region.  Would take all the moisture we could get from this monster if it verified.

12Z GFS Nov. 2.png

 

33 degree raging thunderstorms in 2013-14 traumatized me back in Memphis, but I'll take it at this point. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

gfs_asnow_us_39.png

TT maps are always fun with mixed precip situations lmao. Translation: around 3" of sleet in Lincoln. That would be a LOT of sleet. Should be an interesting system to watch. GFS is still flip flopping and Euro is much weaker I believe. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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EPS/GEFS look promising for the eastern half of Neb, IA, KS, and MO for a good moisture hit. I would think snow is more likely heading west towards Holdrege. GEFS favors C NE into SD, EPS has no clear or strong axis, just a wide area of 1-2" 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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This forecast is a nice turn around for the time being.  I will change my tune if some average temps don't return within a couple weeks.

Its funny how October cold and snow just never has the legs to last far into November.  By the numbers, my backyard should in theory be capable of holding onto snow from October to the rest of winter with some below normal temps from Nov 1-15.  But, the pattern that gives snowfall in October never seems to have the legs to make it through the first half of Nov.     

Capture1102.JPG

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6 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

GFS would be an ice to rain event in Eastern Nebraska. Yuck. I'll take the moisture though. It's still very early in the season so a Dakota cutter would be no surprise. 

Even MN gets rain w this i think, but......still plenty of time for changes in regards to your area.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently 43F under clear skies. Temps dropping into the 30s tanite and the rest of the week and into the weekend looks marvelous. As a matter a fact, it looks awesome till early next week. Sunshine and nothing but sunshine w temps in the 60s. Someone could hit 70F or better.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Here is the latest on ETA......."A Monster Category 4 Hurricane" with winds of 150 mph.

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/eta-track.jpg?w=632

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Screen-Shot-2020-11-02-at-12.17.55-PM.png?w=632

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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7 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Crazy....

gfs_asnow_us_35.png

Crazy thermal problems I’m thinking. Regardless double barrel lows equal big swings in models. Although pretty crazy how all models are showing both storms rounding the base of the trough in some shape or form. Regardless love seeing this pattern setting up! 

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17 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Crazy thermal problems I’m thinking. Regardless double barrel lows equal big swings in models. Although pretty crazy how all models are showing both storms rounding the base of the trough in some shape or form. Regardless love seeing this pattern setting up! 

Yeah I could see a lot of ice and/or sleet somewhere. 

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Rhymes with Alaska, and known to the lumberjacks as "the Klondike region", this place anchors the SW corner of the triangle of max avg snowfall in the Lwr Peninsula of Michigan.

Not bad on a forecast of 2-5"

Quote

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
209 PM EST MON NOV 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     SNOW             2 ENE SHARON            44.59N 85.05W
11/02/2020  M6.9 INCH        KALKASKA           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL. CO-OP OBSERVER STATION KSEM4 KALKASKA 11 SE.

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Edmund Fitzgerald Nov. 9th '76. Looks like a heck of a storm Nov 9th 10th.

Was just listening to the song on my way home from work tonight. It always seems more relevant and meaningful this time of year.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This will feel nice.....b4 the real stuff comehttps://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/NEWarmUpWedThur2Nov9a.jpg?w=632

 

 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Devastating ice storm on the GFS. Tropical Tidbits is wrong on the snowfall accumulation based on soundings in the area.

I prefer Pivotal for precip types.

DF5486DB-B682-4B22-A0C3-E8D6F17BCF10.jpeg

Electricty is overrated anyways. In all seriousness, that's the last way I'd want to recieve 3" of QPF. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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