jaster220 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Came home from my sister's place in SEMI to find the 1st smattering of snow on my deck. The airport unit reported (6) squalls between 10:15 and the next 6 hrs. If they had happened simultaneously, it may have added up to something measurable. As it is, I could only give it a "T" for the day (which I don't record tbh). Still, I ran into a couple serious squalls east of here and watched my car thermo drop from 36F to 30F and the hvy SHSN blowing across the pavement made it look just like a real winter's day for a few miles anyhow. Winds were stout as well. Looks like Frankfort exceeded their forecast with a peak gust at 58 mph. Around here was more in the 35-40 mph range. I did see some reports of 60 mph near Holland/Grand Haven along the coast even from early this morning. This thing set in quickly. Now we go back to tranquility pattern and since we miss out on the Plains action, it may be a full 9-10 day wait for anything as exciting as today's wx. LR GFS has a couple systems in the d10-15 range that could be wound-up wind makers here similar to today. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 8 hours ago, Clinton said: He says no forecast changes since last month. He mentions the Pioneer and CFSv2SST supports a colder forecast. Mentioned analog years of 1983-84, 1995-96, 2017-18 were heavy hitters in terms of snowfall that had this kind of support from the CFS. "Such a pattern could produce a lot of snow, especially since the precipitation in the analog patterns shows plenty of above-normal amounts and even some intersecting of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. While not etched in stone, simply above normal precipitation implies, even in warm winters, one or two storms that can sneak in and provide significant snowfalls (example 2016)." Pencil me a little confused buddy, but I have that text (quoted) as being from his early October update, the one with all the maps dated 9/30/20. You certain there's nothing newer? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Today, marks the 1st official hard freeze for the city proper as temps finally have dipped into the upper 20's along the lake shore. It's nice to check that stat off the books. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Looking out into the extended, if you like extended Indian Summer weather, the LR clue I'm seeing for the eastern CONUS is your friend. I think we will see an extended period of troughs targeting the western NAMER coastline based off of one of the LR clues I'm seeing. It appears there may be a raging PAC jet targeting the west coast. Next weeks cool down across the Sub could be brief and flip back to an extended ridge-like pattern. The warmer anomalies showing up at both 10mb/30mb over the entire central/eastern CONUS from mid Oct towards the end of the run translate to a ridge by Week 2. This pattern may in fact last into the Thanksgiving holiday. Last weeks Euro weeklies showed this so I'm curious to see what it has to say in today's run. Not only that, but the PV is forecast to relocate on the other side of the Pole in Eurasia in the extended.... 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 8 hours ago, jaster220 said: Pencil me a little confused buddy, but I have that text (quoted) as being from his early October update, the one with all the maps dated 9/30/20. You certain there's nothing newer? Nothing that I saw bud. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 So if that storm were to happen around the 8th, like what GFS is saying, that would be nuts. The best part it would be over half of our season snow based on a local Mets winter forecast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Right across mby. 8 days out...what could go wrong? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Canadian also has the storm next week 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Well we had the first widespread snow fall of the season here yesterday. Here at my house there were several periods of snow and snow mixed with hail. And yes it was windy. The overnight low here was 24.1 but it looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 27. At this time it is partly cloudy and 32 here at my house. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 ^ Does that white over my place in those model maps mean lots and lots of snow? 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Sunny skies currently w temps in the 20s. Had a light dusting of snow yesterday, which was perfect to set the mood up for the holidays. Mainly rooftops, grassy surfaces and etc. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Warm this week, a possible snowstorm next week, and then flipping back to nice weather through Thanksgiving? Sign me up! Snow without the long lasting bitterly cold is perfect in my book. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Man thats a hard cutter on 12z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 ICON looks NW too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 24 hours ago the GFS had this hitting eastern Iowa with a foot of snow, now it's into the Dakota's, which is what I would assume will happen if this storm materializes. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 GFS would be an ice to rain event in Eastern Nebraska. Yuck. I'll take the moisture though. It's still very early in the season so a Dakota cutter would be no surprise. 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Canadian also has a storm, but not much snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Yup I'm thinking NW especially at this time of year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Have been really busy today and just saw the 12Z GFS. My gosh. What a storm that would be for my region. Would take all the moisture we could get from this monster if it verified. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 18 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Have been really busy today and just saw the 12Z GFS. My gosh. What a storm that would be for my region. Would take all the moisture we could get from this monster if it verified. 33 degree raging thunderstorms in 2013-14 traumatized me back in Memphis, but I'll take it at this point. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, james1976 said: TT maps are always fun with mixed precip situations lmao. Translation: around 3" of sleet in Lincoln. That would be a LOT of sleet. Should be an interesting system to watch. GFS is still flip flopping and Euro is much weaker I believe. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 12Z Euro snowfall map. Not as much as GFS, but does have a storm around. Still a week away at least, if it happens at all. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 EPS/GEFS look promising for the eastern half of Neb, IA, KS, and MO for a good moisture hit. I would think snow is more likely heading west towards Holdrege. GEFS favors C NE into SD, EPS has no clear or strong axis, just a wide area of 1-2" 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 This forecast is a nice turn around for the time being. I will change my tune if some average temps don't return within a couple weeks. Its funny how October cold and snow just never has the legs to last far into November. By the numbers, my backyard should in theory be capable of holding onto snow from October to the rest of winter with some below normal temps from Nov 1-15. But, the pattern that gives snowfall in October never seems to have the legs to make it through the first half of Nov. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 If the GFS verifies, that's a nasty ice storm for Kansas and Nebraska next week. Yuck 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 6 hours ago, snowstorm83 said: GFS would be an ice to rain event in Eastern Nebraska. Yuck. I'll take the moisture though. It's still very early in the season so a Dakota cutter would be no surprise. Even MN gets rain w this i think, but......still plenty of time for changes in regards to your area. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Currently 43F under clear skies. Temps dropping into the 30s tanite and the rest of the week and into the weekend looks marvelous. As a matter a fact, it looks awesome till early next week. Sunshine and nothing but sunshine w temps in the 60s. Someone could hit 70F or better. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Here is the latest on ETA......."A Monster Category 4 Hurricane" with winds of 150 mph. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Crazy.... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, james1976 said: Crazy.... Crazy thermal problems I’m thinking. Regardless double barrel lows equal big swings in models. Although pretty crazy how all models are showing both storms rounding the base of the trough in some shape or form. Regardless love seeing this pattern setting up! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, gabel23 said: Crazy thermal problems I’m thinking. Regardless double barrel lows equal big swings in models. Although pretty crazy how all models are showing both storms rounding the base of the trough in some shape or form. Regardless love seeing this pattern setting up! Yeah I could see a lot of ice and/or sleet somewhere. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Edmund Fitzgerald Nov. 9th '76. Looks like a heck of a storm Nov 9th 10th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Rhymes with Alaska, and known to the lumberjacks as "the Klondike region", this place anchors the SW corner of the triangle of max avg snowfall in the Lwr Peninsula of Michigan. Not bad on a forecast of 2-5" Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 209 PM EST MON NOV 2 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0830 AM SNOW 2 ENE SHARON 44.59N 85.05W 11/02/2020 M6.9 INCH KALKASKA MI CO-OP OBSERVER 24-HR TOTAL. CO-OP OBSERVER STATION KSEM4 KALKASKA 11 SE. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, Madtown said: Edmund Fitzgerald Nov. 9th '76. Looks like a heck of a storm Nov 9th 10th. Was just listening to the song on my way home from work tonight. It always seems more relevant and meaningful this time of year. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 This will feel nice.....b4 the real stuff come Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Devastating ice storm on the GFS. Tropical Tidbits is wrong on the snowfall accumulation based on soundings in the area. I prefer Pivotal for precip types. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Devastating ice storm on the GFS. Tropical Tidbits is wrong on the snowfall accumulation based on soundings in the area. I prefer Pivotal for precip types. Electricty is overrated anyways. In all seriousness, that's the last way I'd want to recieve 3" of QPF. 5 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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