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November 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Hello from Fountain Hills Arizona!  Daylight is emerging as  sunrise here is at 6:49am.  The beautiful glow from sunrises out here in the desert SW are something else.  It's a very comfortable 70F with a calm wind and we are heading up into the low 90's today and for most of the work week before big changes.  Meantime, get out and vote today on Election Day!

 

Edit: Forgot to send this message a bit ago as I had to take care of something...

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Already up to 45.5*F here. Yet another day in the 60s. Every day will be in the 60s here until this weekend.

If you want to discuss the election, we have a discussion happening over in the everything else subforum with plenty of people on both sides. Just be smart about it if you choose to post there.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Sunny and 59F. Absolutely gorgeous. All week will feature sunshine and warmer temps. Someone could see 70s here in SEMI by weeks end and into the weekend. Wow!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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36 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Destroying the forecast high of 68. Already at 72.

Same here. 4F above grid-casted 59F. Analogs called for a warm November. Might last into Dec here at least.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Warm weather comes to an end by middle part of next week. Temps drop to the 40s for highs, along w wet weather, so enjoy this mild weather while you have it.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NWS Hastings disco:

Following a week of warmth, cold air advects south behind the front early next week, bringing an abrupt change in temperatures. Instead of readings 20 degrees above normal, highs heading into Tuesday are expected to average 20 degrees below normal (30s). If a closed low develops in the southern extent of the upper trough...the potential exists for a winter weather/snow event Tuesday/Tuesday night as this system crosses our region. Details of this system will become more clear in upcoming days as the system nears, so be sure to monitor forecasts for updates.

 

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Hurricane ETA has its eyes on Cuba and then potentially Florida down the road. As HP weakens in the GOM and moves away, it will allow ETA to make a right sharp turn and head for Cuba. The US has to monitor this closely going forward. Currently at 130mph, gusts to 165.

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/cropped-Screen-Shot-2020-11-03-at-3.29.01-PM.png?w=475

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently at 42F under crystal clear skies. Bonfire nite for sure! 🔥

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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10 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Already up to 45.5*F here. Yet another day in the 60s. Every day will be in the 60s here until this weekend.

If you want to discuss the election, we have a discussion happening over in the everything else subforum with plenty of people on both sides. Just be smart about it if you choose to post there.

Why?

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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8 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

No brainless blindly partisan political bashing and insult hurling.

Yes, I agree. That should not be tolerated at all! I have a feeling there will be one or 2 loud mouths.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Indian Summer back home in Chicago looks superb!

 

Image

 

Boy, it sure was nice to soak up some vitamin D at the pool yesterday.  Something that stood out though, were the longer shadows being cast by the sun's lower angle in the sky.  The sun sets noticeably earlier now compared to when I was here just a little over a month ago (5:33pm).  PHX may break a record high tomorrow with a forecast temp of 97F.

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7 hours ago, markjb said:

....

Did you say something.........

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently at 44F under sunny skies. Temps should climb well into the 60s today.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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At this time there is a very big difference between the current temperature here at my house and the official reading at the airport. With clear skies I now have a reading of 40 after a over night low of 39 while the official readings at GRR is 49 after a overnight low of 44.

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ORD tied a record high of 74F yesterday and also began the 1st day of a string of 70's in the forecast which may set or tie a record for consecutive 70's in November.  Iirc, this pattern reminds me of Nov '07 that turned out to be a real warm month.  Needless to say, this warm spell will have some legs to it so get out and enjoy some pleasant late autumn weather.  Meanwhile, we are heading into the upper 90's here in AZ and may set an all time record high temp for the month of November!  Why not?  It's been the story here in the SW for this entire warm season.

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Today's JMA weeklies show case an extended period of AN temps for literally everyone east of the Rockies for the remainder of this month.  Thanksgiving week may feature a blow torch and the CFSv2 agrees as well.

Next 30 days...

Y202011.D0412_gl2.png

 

wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

 

Unless I see changes up in the stratosphere, this pattern will remain warm into early December.  Would you rather have a warm pattern now then in Winter??

This animation below really provides a good clue that the Eastern CONUS will be stuck in a massive ridge for the foreseeable future.  

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

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Second straight day.

Quote

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS
450 PM CST WED NOV 4 2020

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT FARGO HECTOR INTL AP ND...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 74 WAS SET AT THE FARGO HECTOR 
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 70 SET IN 
1975.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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