Jump to content

November 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

The day started off very tranquil yesterday, but then the CF swept through by midday and gusty winds picked up across the valley and ushered in cooler air as temps dropped through the 70's.  I'm waking up to a cool and crisp 50F and that will be the theme for the next few days.  Temps holding in the 60's here for the next few days and daily chances of moisture.  Hopefully we can squeeze out some much needed precip.

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

After what has been a very quiet start to the month, boy is it going to turn active across the nation with multiple threats from coast to coast.  "The Central CONUS Show" will showcase a strong SW Flow aloft and along comes a wave train of systems starting this weekend.  Since September, the first signs of Winter began up across the N Rockies in Montana and SW Canada early and often.  They are going to get crushed by a monster Blizzard today through Monday.

 

1.png

 

 

As far as snowfall, our friends to the north are in a ripe pattern that will build the glacier...nature sure has her way of doing things...fill in those "snow holes"...

2.png

 

ims2020312_usa.gif

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This sure has been a record setting first week of November. The month started with a strong cold front on the 1st that dropped temperatures all day long and Grand Rapids seen it first (and so far measurable snow fall) and then a sudden warm up. Over the last 5 days highs have been 65,72,64,70 and 71 and the departure for November after the first 7 days is +7.4. And the next 3 days will see record or near record highs.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I remember gun season opening week in '75 and being hot in my gear during the afternoons. Not sure how warm it got in NWMI but that was another week deeper into the month. The following winter was known as a "LES winter" as that was the region's that did best in the snow dept. Though my home region near KFNT had a decent season by their standards.

Whoa!

Guess my memory wasn't too good when I wrote that. Looked up the data and we had a great winter snowfall-wise back then after the hot start to November. The part about it being known as a great LES season still holds true. I can attest since I went to my sister's in Ludington that January and they were buried. Got delayed leaving due to heavy LES actually. 

KFNT actually had 162% of the yearly avg of 47.4" that season, and measurable snow in 6 calendar months straight.

 

KFNT 1975-76 Snow Totals.PNG

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Tom said:

After what has been a very quiet start to the month, boy is it going to turn active across the nation with multiple threats from coast to coast.  "The Central CONUS Show" will showcase a strong SW Flow aloft and along comes a wave train of systems starting this weekend.  Since September, the first signs of Winter began up across the N Rockies in Montana and SW Canada early and often.  They are going to get crushed by a monster Blizzard today through Monday.

 

1.png

 

 

As far as snowfall, our friends to the north are in a ripe pattern that will build the glacier...nature sure has her way of doing things...fill in those "snow holes"...

2.png

 

ims2020312_usa.gif

 

As summer-like as it's been around here that's amazing how many frozen lakes are on that map in Canada not to mention a solid snow-cover!

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On Saturday warm air covered the entire state of Michigan. Marquette reached 75° on Friday – the warmest temperature ever recorded there in the month of November. The low temp. of 55° Saturday AM was the warmest low temperature ever in the month of November. Other daily high temperature records set Saturday: Sault Ste. Marie 67°, Houghton Lake 68°, Gaylord 71°, Saginaw 72°, Pellston 73°, Traverse City, Alpena 75, Grand Rapids 71 and Muskegon 67. At the current time even with cloudy skies it is 71 out at the airport and it is 72 here at my house. Today is already the 2nd warmest November 8th at Grand Rapids and the record for today is 72 set in 2009 and 1931.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

As summer-like as it's been around here that's amazing how many frozen lakes are on that map in Canada not to mention a solid snow-cover!

One has to wonder if and that is a big if what will happen if we get a lot of that cold air down in late November or December. But like I said we will have to see if that happens or not.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eta a bit stronger than originally thought??

 

Capture.PNG

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/6/2020 at 5:28 AM, Tom said:

It's rather rare to see a 500mb map as such in the month of November...looks more like something you'll see in September..."Ridge over Troubled waters"...I'm curious to see what this patter delivers once that -NAO appears later in Winter and then that massive trough driving into the west/sw.  I'm looking forward to the pattern change heading my way here in AZ.  Mountain snows will fall and much needed precip here in the valley.

Meantime, PHX smashed the old record for the date and for the month of November hitting an astonishing 99F yesterday!  Unbelievable.  I tell ya, it's been quite a year of Heat over this way.  Everyone I talk to has had enough of this relentless pattern.  That trough in the SW is eye candy for not only AZ but So Cal.  Let the wave train begin.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_12.png

 

Haven't been around much the last few days but I know that I don't disagree with you. There's no way that the cold pattern does not come back. There's too much turbulence upstream for it not to.

And coming in blind to this my comment today was that I thought finally after 5 years I had avoided September but it popped up in my November. Lol. One day, I'm going to get a "classic" autumn. Not this round. Nothing classic about this other than its becoming a ritual annoyance every autumn and we will see wildfire conditions here by February. From record rain to drought. Crazy. Going to be interesting and I still believe this winter will be nuts.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just got done putting some outside Christmas lights out. This is the first time I have put up the outside lights in short sleeves. The official high looks to have been 73 and that is a new record for the date. But here at my house I had a high of 76 and I can tell you it was warm putting the lights up. I told my wife they may be up until April. At this time it is clear here and 73.
 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Currently in a High wind warning… I’ll tell you one thing this wind is something. We have blowing dust everywhere, corn stocks getting blown around. It’s like a blizzard with blowing leaves and dust.

The wind was no joke. I had to drive to Kearney and back today for something. I thought my little car was gonna topple over going 85 mph in the wide open wind. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's amazing how much of the eastern US is breaking records underneath this resilient ridge...ORD making history

 

1.jpg

 

It was a very cool day for Arizona standards across the state but esp in the valley.  We didn't make it out of the 60's yesterday (67F).  The snows fell across the high country and more will fall today.  Can't wait to see some live footage later this morning when the camera crew from the local news stations that will be reporting from Flagstaff.

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The official overnight low at Grand Rapids was 56 if this holds it will be the warmest minimum for any November 9th at Grand Rapids. The low here at my house was a cooler 54. At the current time with broken cloud cover it is 62 at the airport and 57 here at my house. I had a high here at my house yesterday of 76. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What an overnight here.  I was woken up at 4:30 AM by a torrential downpour along with pea sized hail.  Only lasted about 10 minutes.  Then a few more storms came through after 5 AM.  Right now it is 60 degrees with low clouds, calm wind, and a dew point of 56.  Cold front is just to my northwest.  Temps are supposed to drop below freezing by the time school is out this afternoon.  Went to school in short sleeves this morning, but I brought a coat for after school.  Just another typical Nebraska day.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some of the CAM's are suggesting a tightly wrapped up storm system traversing the plains/mw and potential Defo band wrapping up near OMA then up towards MSP.

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_32.png

 

 

12z GFS...looks like some of you will see the flakes flying after record warmth!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_5.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_7.png

  • Like 3
  • Excited 1
  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

Some of the CAM's are suggesting a tightly wrapped up storm system traversing the plains/mw and potential Defo band wrapping up near OMA then up towards MSP.

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_32.png

 

 

12z GFS...looks like some of you will see the flakes flying after record warmth!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_5.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_7.png

That wraparound may give me a little snow.  It was actually a tad bit humid this morning.  That is gone.  Down to 34 and falling right now.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

That wraparound may give me a little snow.  It was actually a tad bit humid this morning.  That is gone.  Down to 34 and falling right now.

Feels almost muggy here this morning. It looks like the front has already passed through York and Columbus, might get here earlier than expected unless it slows down. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OAX on Facebook:

"The cold front moving through the area is faster and stronger than we initially thought it might be. Some outlier model ensemble members did suggest that. Those same members also suggest more snow and ice than we have forecast. That could mean tomorrow morning's commute could be troublesome. Stay tuned, we're updating the forecast and we'll have updated graphics out later in the day."

  • Like 4

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winter Weather Advisory just issued for 2-6" of snow and possibly some ice.  Well this turned in our favor quickly.  Really nothing mentioned just a couple of days ago.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 PM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...A wintry mix of precipitation is expected this evening,
eventually switching over to all snow after midnight. Total snow
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches are forecast, with the highest
amounts favoring locations northwest of a line from Cambridge to
St. Paul. Ice accumulations of a light glaze will also be
possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Periods of heavier
snow, combined with at times gusty northwesterly winds, may
result in lowered visibility. The hazardous conditions could
impact the Tuesday morning commute.

 

 

  • Like 2
  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...