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November 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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10 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Seriously how do you get the phone to go thebthenlast read post like before. Scrolling through the posts everytime I refresh is getting old!

 

5 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I was thinking the same thing Madtown!!!

Go to the "Great Lakes Great Plains" tab first, then go to the Topic you want to view by clicking just underneath the last member who posted which is the member you will see to the right of the Topic.

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Was a beautiful day today to be outside, again. Absolutely gorgeous. Decided not to work today and just enjoy this magnificent, warm, sunny day. Broke another record. Highs were in the mid 70s. Another warm day in store for tomorrow.

Jaster: did ya break a record today.......I've been breaking records left and right 😀

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Cooldown comes on Wednesday, but that takes us back to average w ton of sunshine, so that is perfect. Keep in mind, normal high is in the 50s and N L in the 30s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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On 11/8/2020 at 1:16 PM, jaster220 said:

Eta a bit stronger than originally thought??

 

Capture.PNG

Yes sir, Hurricane warnings have been posted I think. Might need to check on that, since I last checked was yesterday. LA residents are probably like "Oh No" not another one coming! If Eta was to hit them, it would be the 6th storm this season.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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KLNK down to 35 already. Not far from the freezing mark when most guidance suggested it would be around daybreak tuesday. I don't think it'll snow very much if at all, but an icy Tuesday wouldn't surprise me. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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9 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

OAX on Facebook:

"The cold front moving through the area is faster and stronger than we initially thought it might be. Some outlier model ensemble members did suggest that. Those same members also suggest more snow and ice than we have forecast. That could mean tomorrow morning's commute could be troublesome. Stay tuned, we're updating the forecast and we'll have updated graphics out later in the day."

I am driving out to Kearney from Omaha tomorrow mid/late morning for work, the drive out west might be more interesting than I previously expected... however it doesn't sound like it should be too terrible but I am starting to wonder. 

Enjoying the sounds of a few of the brief downpours outside, hoping we can get in on some thunder later on this evening and tonight. 

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4 hours ago, Niko said:

Yes sir, Hurricane warnings have been posted I think. Might need to check on that, since I last checked was yesterday. LA residents are probably like "Oh No" not another one coming! If Eta was to hit them, it would be the 6th storm this season.

Subtropical Storm Theta has formed in the Central Atlantic, to become the 29th named storm of 2020, which breaks the all-time record for number of named storms in a season... 2020 in a nutshell, wow! 

Screenshot 2020-11-09 211907.png

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7 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Subtropical Storm Theta has formed in the Central Atlantic, to become the 29th named storm of 2020, which breaks the all-time record for number of named storms in a season... 2020 in a nutshell, wow! 

Screenshot 2020-11-09 211907.png

What a weird track.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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48 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Subtropical Storm Theta has formed in the Central Atlantic, to become the 29th named storm of 2020, which breaks the all-time record for number of named storms in a season... 2020 in a nutshell, wow! 

Screenshot 2020-11-09 211907.png

Thanks for sharing that......This "Tropical Season" has been crazy.

Note: Also, keep an eye at the Caribbean in the coming days. Something might form there as well and it has a 50% probability of happening.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

 

Go to the "Great Lakes Great Plains" tab first, then go to the Topic you want to view by clicking just underneath the last member who posted which is the member you will see to the right of the Topic.

That takes me to the last post, but not the last one I read. It's better, but still not as good as before.

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Record high today of 77F. Ann Arbor hit 81F, west of my area. Just incredible stretch of warm weather. To top it all off, my low tanite will be warmer than my average high temp (so, low of 55F, meanwhile, average high is 52F).

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5 hours ago, Madtown said:

Seriously how do you get the phone to go thebthenlast read post like before. Scrolling through the posts everytime I refresh is getting old!

Lmao i was literally thinking the same thing just now. That would be my one minor complaint otherwise I love the newer upgrades.

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Updated point and click

Tonight
Freezing rain before 4am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet. Some thunder is also possible. Steady temperature around 31. North wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible. Little or no sleet accumulation expected.
Tuesday
Snow and freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet before 3pm, then a chance of snow between 3pm and 5pm. High near 32. North wind 10 to 16 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
 
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[quote]

Ice Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1150 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020

...WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.An ice storm warning has been issued for parts of eastern
Nebraska including the following counties, Platte, Stanton,
Thurston, Colfax, Cuming, Dodge, Burt, Butler and Saunders. The
warning also includes Monona county Iowa. Ice accumulations could
reach around a quarter of an inch or more, causing damage to trees
and power lines. Freezing rain is ongoing or will be ongoing in
the warning area overnight. This will gradually change over to
sleet and snow late tonight into Tuesday morning. Snow amounts in
parts of northeast Nebraska could reach 2 to 5 inches, mainly in
the area along and northwest of a line from about Albion to
Norfolk and Wayne.

Wintry precipitation is expected to become more widespread and
become more impactful overnight farther south toward Omaha,
Council Bluffs and Lincoln, especially toward the morning commute
Tuesday. Some ice accumulations are also expected along
Interstate 80, including Lincoln and Omaha, where one to two
tenths of an inch of ice and snow amounts of up to around an inch
are possible.

IAZ043-NEZ015-032>034-042>044-050-101400-
/O.UPG.KOAX.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-201110T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KOAX.IS.W.0001.201110T0550Z-201110T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOAX.WW.Y.0017.201110T1800Z-201110T2100Z/
Monona-Thurston-Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Butler-
Including the cities of Onawa, Mapleton, Pender, Macy, Walthill,
Winnebago, Stanton, West Point, Wisner, Tekamah, Oakland, Lyons,
Decatur, Columbus, Schuyler, Fremont, and David City
1150 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 3 PM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Ice Storm Warning, significant icing with amounts
  of a quarter of an inch or more are forecast. Snow amounts could
  reach up to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Nebraska into
  west central Iowa.

* WHEN...For the Ice Storm Warning, until noon CST Tuesday. For
  the Winter Weather Advisory, from noon to 3 PM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...untreated roads could be very icy and travel could be
  hazardous. This will impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.[\quote]
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NWS does a great job, most of the time. This is not one of them.

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night/
Issued at 1142 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020

Widespread IFR conditions are expected at times for all locations
through much of Tuesday. Showers and a few thunderstorms possible
during this time and may have a period of freezing rain near
KFOD/KMCW at times. The wind will be north/northwest for the
period and breezy at times though the switch to nw wind will not
arrive to KOTM for a few more hours.

 

KOTM went NW wind 11 mins later. I call it lazy.

KOTM 100553Z AUTO 33010KT 10SM BKN017 OVC080 16/13 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP090 T01610133 10211 20161 402390161 55006
KOTM 100545Z AUTO 21012KT 10SM BKN017 OVC080 19/17 A2981 RMK AO2 T01890167

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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45 years ago today-- "The Witches of November came stealing"--

excellent write up by NWS Marquette-

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=858309daa74f4e6ebf81f32d128f7ed8

And a great WNEW TV-5 story- 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

45 years ago today-- "The Witches of November came stealing"--

excellent write up by NWS Marquette-

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=858309daa74f4e6ebf81f32d128f7ed8

And a great WNEW TV-5 story- 

 

Grizz, I was just going to comment on this storms anniversary and the eerie coincidence that today's storm system forming across the Plains is taking a very similar track back in 1975.  Here's a graphic that shows the full storm track from KS up into the U.P.  The winter of 1975-76 featured a strong La Nina.  I find it fascinating how nature shows us similarities in weather patterns even though not all seasons are the same.

 

1.jpg

 

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10 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Still looking like 4-7” with snow starting by early afternoon and heavy snow starting by the evening commute. 

Just another day in paradise!  From record warmth to a Winter Storm...what volatile wx pattern that has set up.  I think this will be a common theme going forward.  Many ups and downs in a La Nina pattern with a lot of potential for heavy snows the farther north you are.  Sorta reminds me of the pattern during the '17-'18 season I believe it was that buried the Upper MW/GL's.  I think @Madtownplanned a perfectly timed move up farther north!

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Yesterdays high of 77 is the 2nd warmest day ever for the month of November. With the current temperature of 65 today is already the 3rd warmest November 10th on record here at Grand Rapids. The record high for today is 67 set in 1999. At this time it is cloudy and 65 here at my house.

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Probably 1.5-2.0" as of now with a heavier band coming through right now.  We might get to 2.5" as it winds down.  Forecast was 2-6".  I always assumed we'd be at the lower end as we had freezing rain first.  Thankfully here the roads weren't too bad.  Many schools in our immediate area are starting at 10 AM.  Our Supt. doesn't call school off very often, and we rarely have late starts.  If we are off, it must be bad.

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Skies are partly cloudy w very mild conditions. Temp at 70F and going for another record. I am so close to turn on my AC unit in my homeoffice. Most likely am not, but I do have 2 fans situated in surrounded corners. Unreal. Back to November starting tomorrow. Even w back to normal temps, weather is looking great. Save the good stuff for December and so on.

Note: Thunderstorms are possible late tanite as the CF rolls on through. Definitely looking forward to that. Hope they are severe. Right now, it looks like a squall-line will eventually come w the front.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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11 hours ago, Madtown said:

That takes me to the last post, but not the last one I read. It's better, but still not as good as before.

My phone will show a dividing line at the last read post if I leave the page open in Firefox. Idk what it does if/when I close it tho..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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16 minutes ago, Niko said:

Skies are partly cloudy w very mild conditions. Temp at 70F and going for another record. I am so close to turn on my AC unit in my homeoffice. Most likely am not, but I do have 2 fans situated in surrounded corners. Unreal. Back to November starting tomorrow. Even w back to normal temps, weather is looking great. Save the good stuff for December and so on.

Note: Thunderstorms are possible late tanite as the CF rolls on through. Definitely looking forward to that. Hope they are severe. Right now, it looks like a squall-line will eventually come w the front.

Hit 76F here yesterday and it felt HOT! The only day this stretch to feel legit hot to me. I was further north were it was both warm and a bit cloudy tho too. Haven't used any AC, just fans in the car. Did leave a window open last night and never once felt a chilly breeze. Ready to get back to "autumn" personally.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Grizz, I was just going to comment on this storms anniversary and the eerie coincidence that today's storm system forming across the Plains is taking a very similar track back in 1975.  Here's a graphic that shows the full storm track from KS up into the U.P.  The winter of 1975-76 featured a strong La Nina.  I find it fascinating how nature shows us similarities in weather patterns even though not all seasons are the same.

 

1.jpg

 

Amazing parallels, especially with 75-76 being a serious analog!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Amazing parallels, especially with 75-76 being a serious analog!

How was the winter around here?  I read an article that the ice coverage in and around the GL's was low till about Dec 11th when the cold came fast and hard for the rest of December.  Then came the Jan thaw but Feb-Mar was cold I believe.  I'll have to look back again.

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