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November 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hit 76F here yesterday and it felt HOT! The only day this stretch to feel legit hot to me. I was further north were it was both warm and a bit cloudy tho too. Haven't used any AC, just fans in the car. Did leave a window open last night and never once felt a chilly breeze. Ready to get back to "autumn" personally.

I cracked a couple of windows as well last nite. Actually, it felt kinda chilly, w dry air over us, temps drop considerably at nighttime.

BTW: You are probably aware of this, since you are a Michigander...a friend of my just tweeted me that today marks the anniversary of the ship that sank in Lake Superior, succumbing to one of those notorious gales........... "Edmund Fitzgerald" 45 years ago.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 minutes ago, Tom said:

How was the winter around here?  I read an article that the ice coverage in and around the GL's was low till about Dec 11th when the cold came fast and hard for the rest of December.  Then came the Jan thaw but Feb-Mar was cold I believe.  I'll have to look back again.

I think temps were kinda variable, but leaned cold enough to make for a huge snow season where I was growing up in SEMI. See my post over in the Autumn/Winter thread.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Just another day in paradise!  From record warmth to a Winter Storm...what volatile wx pattern that has set up.  I think this will be a common theme going forward.  Many ups and downs in a La Nina pattern with a lot of potential for heavy snows the farther north you are.  Sorta reminds me of the pattern during the '17-'18 season I believe it was that buried the Upper MW/GL's.  I think @Madtownplanned a perfectly timed move up farther 

Jeaded back up Friday with the snowblower attachment. Then back up for good on the 28th!

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1.41” of rain/freezing rain here so far. Crazy how much of a difference one or maybe two degrees make. 
looking at my weather station, the temperature was between 31.6-32.2 all night long while we’ve had .93” of the total rain since midnight. Bc it was so close to freezing we only got minimal accumulation on the trees and elevated surfaces. You go west from here about 20-30 miles and further and that’s where the major ice accumulations occurred.

The first pic is from my house, the rest off of Twitter from areas west of here.

19B0A050-FB1F-4BB5-891B-9C48F236035B.jpeg

D5B7E57C-3EC2-496B-8477-DF29F7AAFFCE.jpeg

ABD91489-B1FA-4F73-846A-97E93917E830.jpeg

8BB42A47-49A5-4850-BF08-4400AB3D3E8A.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

1.41” of rain/freezing rain here so far. Crazy how much of a difference one or maybe two degrees make. 
looking at my weather station, the temperature was between 31.6-32.2 all night long while we’ve had .93” of the total rain since midnight. Bc it was so close to freezing we only got minimal accumulation on the trees and elevated surfaces. You go west from here about 20-30 miles and further and that’s where the major ice accumulations occurred.

The first pic is from my house, the rest off of Twitter from areas west of here.

19B0A050-FB1F-4BB5-891B-9C48F236035B.jpeg

D5B7E57C-3EC2-496B-8477-DF29F7AAFFCE.jpeg

ABD91489-B1FA-4F73-846A-97E93917E830.jpeg

8BB42A47-49A5-4850-BF08-4400AB3D3E8A.jpeg

 

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

Crazy to think that just a week ago we were in the 70's all week! This turned out to be quite the ice storm to say the least. Ice accretion is around .5-.75" and trees are breaking like match sticks. Hoping to keep power today as school was called off. 

 

Correction: After doing the actual way, came out to .375" of ice. 

IMG_0868.jpg

IMG_0866.jpg

IMG_0865.jpg

Thanks for sending in these pics!  It's incredible the amount of damage ice can do but I'm glad you guys are safe and sound.  Luckily, you all have the power on which is a blessing given the circumstances.

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25 minutes ago, Tom said:

 

Thanks for sending in these pics!  It's incredible the amount of damage ice can do but I'm glad you guys are safe and sound.  Luckily, you all have the power on which is a blessing given the circumstances.

My sister lives west of me near Columbus and said unfortunately they've been without power since 1am last night and were wishing they had a fireplace!

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This storm reminds me of the November 17th 2013 severe wx threat that hit the MW/OHV back then.   I remember it was on a Sunday because the Chicago Bear's game got delayed as Tornado sirens went off and everyone had to go inside the stadium walls.

Severe Thunderstorm watches hoisted for most of IL...

WW0504 Radar

 

Here's a link for the storm system back in 2013...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_November_17,_2013#:~:text=The tornado outbreak of November,largest for the state overall.&text=Severe weather during the tornado,which eight were tornado related.

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Smashed another record high today. Currently at 73F w mostly sunny skies.

Note:  Here is the record high temperature for Tuesday November 10th:

- November 10th...
Detroit: 68F (set in 1999)

New record Today: 77F

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
344 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-110845-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
344 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A chance of thunderstorms exists tonight for Southeast Michigan as a
cold front tracks through the region. Strong wind gusts of 40 to 45
mph will possible with any shower activity. Storm movement will be
southwest to northeast at approximately 75 mph.

I hope the t'stms are strong to severe. ⛈️

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/cropped-EtaTrack10NovN.jpg?w=475

Possible second US landfall. ETA could also strengthened to a CAT1 again.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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 SPC issued new MD for likely tornado watch.  This is turning into quite the November storm!
   Mesoscale Discussion 1780
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

   Areas affected...northern IL and including the greater Chicago
   metro...southeast WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 101928Z - 102100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch is likely by 3pm CST for northeast IL
   northward into southeast WI.  The forecast primary severe hazards
   are 55-70 mph gusts and a QLCS mesovortex threat capable of
   brief/weak tornadoes and/or narrow swaths of stronger gusts.  The
   supercell tornado threat is conditional and a bit more uncertain. 
   The greatest tornado risk will generally be located north of I-80 to
   the east/southeast of the surface low.
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0.66" at LNK since yesterday. Wettest event (and first 1/2"+) since early September. Omaha metro recieved over an inch. Hopefully this is a sign of active times ahead. Other than the random snowfall its been booooring. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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35 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I'm surprised nobody made a separate thread for this storm.  I see a 4" report in far NW Iowa. 

Definitely thread worthy as this point but it looked like a non event until yesterday. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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I was able to make my work trip out to Kearney, NE this morning... lots of ice just west of Lincoln.

Stopped in York to check in with a client, and was amazed at how much ice they accumulated out there overnight and this morning. The pictures turned out nicely as the sun came out as I was leaving town to jump back on I-80, which really wasn’t bad at all this morning.

062A2DCD-10D5-4DC8-9407-044E9BA00E32.jpeg

22326E47-0AE2-48DB-8533-0D89D2B2AD65.jpeg

A2F0584F-C7B7-4D23-9EBC-30FA6C8C4C4D.jpeg

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2020

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MIC005-015-021-025-027-035-037-045-057-067-073-077-081-085-107-
117-123-133-139-149-159-110500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0506.201111T0035Z-201111T0500Z/

MI
.    MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGAN              BARRY               BERRIEN
CALHOUN              CASS                CLARE
CLINTON              EATON               GRATIOT
IONIA                ISABELLA            KALAMAZOO
KENT                 LAKE                MECOSTA
MONTCALM             NEWAYGO             OSCEOLA
OTTAWA               ST. JOSEPH          VAN BUREN
$$


ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@Tom

Any severe over your place (back home)? 

This is one of those "sneak attack" systems that seem to be a Nina thang. 07-08 had these too. Overnight AFD was "rain..then colder" but since then I've gotten multiple headlines in effect. I was in Holland and ran into heavy rain bands both going and coming back. Still dry and a very mild 71F having hit 74F for the high. Meanwhile, tomorrow's high keeps getting lowered. Now a full 30F colder than today with 44F in the grid (tho not sure if they mean at midnight and falling, or afternoon?). These extreme temp gradients are going to make for some doozy systems as we get into winter. Don't want to be on the wrong side ofc!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Granted it's very short range, but to see 90% Severe T-storms in my grid, well that just doesn't happen very often around these parts

 

20201110 NWS Marshall Alerts 10 pm.PNG

  • Storm 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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OK, maybe not severe after all, but a fun "something to track" night nonetheless

Quote

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

Max measured gusts in narrow convective line have been sub-severe
this evening... generally 40-50 mph. Every now and then the
kinks/bows within the line have been concerning and may have
produced localized svr gusts to 60 mph or more, but only isolated
power outages have been noted so far. Most of those are north of
GRR.

MLCape values are only around 250 J/KG, although about 75-100 of
that is down low in the 0-3km layer and effective bulk shear is
around 55 kts currently. This line will continue to be closely
monitored as it moves east, but for the most part it should
remain sub-severe. Will be cancelling some counties from the watch
soon (behind the line).

Wind gusts up to 45 mph are also expected for a few hours
overnight with the cold frontal passage. The front lags a bit
behind the convection. No change to the wind advisory.

 

  • Windy 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Special Weather Statement


Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1022 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

MIZ065-066-072-073-110415-
Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Eaton-Barry-
1022 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CALHOUN...SOUTHEASTERN
BARRY...EASTERN KALAMAZOO AND EATON COUNTIES...

At 1021 PM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles south of Lake Odessa to near
Gull Lake to 5 miles southeast of Vicksburg. Movement was northeast
at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and damage to tree limbs are possible
with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lansing...             Charlotte...           Albion...
Marshall...            Battle Creek...        Eaton Rapids...
Grand Ledge...         Potterville...         Galesburg...
Homer...               Nashville...           Union City...
Bellevue...            Climax...              Burlington...
Brownlee Park...       Level Park-Oak Park... Gull Lake...
Fulton...              Marengo...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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30 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Pure rippage out there. I’d say about 4-5” down. Might pick up another inch by the time it ends. Quick hitter, but man is it hitting hard. Good stuff. 

We used to get those in the Mitt. Been too long. Getting hammered by this almost severe line of storms right now tho. Best warm rain and winds since summer. Had to shut my window.

20201110 Nexrad Marshall 11 pm.PNG

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  • Storm 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Getting some strong winds now, along w moderate, windswept rain. Temp at 68F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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41 minutes ago, Niko said:

Getting some strong winds now, along w moderate, windswept rain. Temp at 68F.

Will be nice when It's more like this..

 

20201110 NWS Duluth Obs.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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80 years ago today- one of the worst Blizzards to hit the Upper Midwest (ranked #2 on many lists I've seen on MN climate only behind the Halloween Blizzard of 1991) was the Armistice Day Blizzard. It actually changed how the Weather Bureau issued forecasts and killed nearly 150 people. Incredible. Here is some info - and Happy Veterans' Day and if you served this great country my hat is off to you sir / madam.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2000/11/10/the-winds-of-hell

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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