November 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

They sure did! The 21" report was from Sterling Hghts. That's not too far south of Macomb is it?

Meanwhile, back to the future, as in d3 surface map per the GFS and whoa! at Sunday morning here in the Mitt. Gonna be a wet, wild, and perhaps white?? opening morning of deer season (firearms) by the looks of things. Should be some whiteness across the UP and/or NMI. Nothing too ominous this far south but staying tuned regardless. I'm a yuge fan of strong autumn storms in the Lakes as a harbinger of good winter ahead.  7 am map is more wet than white but she drops to 980 mb or so and ushers in colder 850's to flip in the traditional LES belts of the Northlands.

Nah..couple of miles.......

Btw: Looking forward to our cold, rainstorm coming...

[Niko]

Haven't been outside yet...but looks beautiful and crisp. Temp at 47F.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Simply perfect calm day under sunshine to move leafs, so I took advantage and did just that before heading off to work. One more clean-up in the front garden sometime later this month and it'll be time to put out the holiday lights!!

Looking forward to seeing some Christmas pics of your property again this year.

[Minny_Weather]

Clearer skies than expected are allowing for a very fast cooldown. Already down to 21.0*F.

[Tom]

Euro Weeklies trending colder and more wintry for the last week of November...the model is also seeing a neutral to slightly negative AO/NAO heading into early Dec, along with a neutral PNA.  In other words, the model has certainly veered away from the torch in the long range. 

[Minny_Weather]

Temp still falling, down to 13.6*F.

[james1976]

Couple rainers on GFS. Wish it would trend colder. Might have to wait til December.

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Niko said:

Looking forward to seeing some Christmas pics of your property again this year.

Hopefully buried, haha!

Back in Dec of 2000, snow depths peaked during the holidays. Looking at records for nearby cities just to my east Albion reached 25" and a bit north Charlotte hit an incredible 28" OTG during the week leading up to New Years. It must have been a winter wonderland that year around here. Wish I could've been here to experience it. I miss having deep snow (12+) OTG. That's the biggest goal I have right now for the winter. Feb '18 briefly touched a foot for 2 days. Would be nice to sustain some good depths like back in 2014 & 2015.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Euro Weeklies trending colder and more wintry for the last week of November...the model is also seeing a neutral to slightly negative AO/NAO heading into early Dec, along with a neutral PNA.  In other words, the model has certainly veered away from the torch in the long range. 

It's great to see SMI getting included in the snow map(s). Even a bit south of me. Speaking of a potential system around/at Thanksgiving and the talk about a warm November of '75, I remembered that there was a decent storm around that time back then as well. Best snow OTG map I could find was from 11/27/75.

Could we be visited by the ghost of Nina's past?

 

[jaster220]

MQT on Sunday's storm

Quote

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 403 PM EST THU NOV 12 2020

A dome of surface high pressure over the southern Great Lakes will
be in place for the early part of Saturday due to upper level
ridging taking place. The lower levels will warm nicely and mix down
to the surface on Saturday, allowing temperatures to rise quickly as
well on the order of potentially 10-15 degrees higher in comparison
to Friday afternoon highs. The WAA regime will be taking place ahead
of a developing mid-latitude cyclone across the central CONUS/Great
Plains area Saturday afternoon further upstream of the CWA. The
GFS/NAM/EURO are hinting at a merger of sorts with two separate
surface Lows combining between early Saturday and late Saturday
night. Currently looks to be a the Polar Jet and Subtropical Jet
enhancement near one another causing the surface Low to deepen over
the Great Lakes. The GFS and NAM have swapped solutions over the
last 24 hours between previous 12Z runs. The GFS now has a 979mb
surface Low by 0Z Sunday evening, whereas the EURO is advertising a
984mb surface low. Both Low centers will deepen the most over
Ontario. Presently, the analysis is showing rain as the main
precipitation type to start the weather event over the CWA, with the
surface cold front bringing the colder air behind it. This will
transition the cold rain to a mixed bag of precipitation, and then
switching to light snow showers by Sunday night into Monday. Models
have backed off on the potential for heavier snow totals, but lake
effect may still be something to keep an eye out for once we get
closer to the weekend where the high resolution guidance can assist
with a forecast package. Euro model hinting at lingering snow
showers through Tuesday morning.

 

[jaster220]

Wow. 13/0z GFS goes bonkers with a 973 mb SLP Sunday morning north east of Superior!

NAM's no where near the deepest, but certainly the 12/18z was much colder than other models showing more snow flying on the N and W sides of the storm. Would be nice if things trended just cold enough for northern locales to get a nice blasting during gun season opener. Would be a flashback for those who hunted during the real bliz of 11/16/89. GEM's in lock-step with earlier GFS at 980 mb near the Sault.

 

 

[jaster220]

Not exactly been "bone dry" here lately, but this map shows how we've been missed N and S by the better swaths of precip in the last month. This weekend's event has the potential to be one of the biggest qpf grabs in weeks around here.

 

[Tom]

Happy Friday the 13th!  #TGIF...things are about to warm up quite a bit around these parts while back home it's gonna get chilly and windy.  The 00z Euro is showing daytime highs in the mid/upper 30's for Chitown and points N & E on Tuesday...Brrr!!!  Meanwhile, over here in the desert SW we may be on the verge of more late season record heat as a string of upper 80's is on the way, with the possibility of touching 90F on a couple days next week. 

On a side note, before I left for AZ I was thinking about how early the leafs turned color this year and it appears almost likely that most, if not, all of the hardy trees will have no leafs on them by the time Thanksgiving week comes around.  I haven't seen what it looks like back home but I'm sure there aren't many leaves left on the trees and after this weekends potent systems targeting the GL's there will be many bare trees.  This has not happened in a number of years iirc.  Was it Nov '13 or '14....gosh, I can't remember what year it was but I do recall how cold it was when I went fishing up into S WI and the edges of the lake was frozen over early one of those years.  Anyway, I like the signals nature is showing and she may be gearing up for a "White Thanksgiving"....I'll explain below...

 

In recent days, the models may now be starting to dial up on potential winter storm system around the 21st that may impact the all-important start of the holiday travel week.  Last nights 00z Euro showing a classic pattern with a Canadian HP over the top seeding arctic air and a storm coming out of the central Rockies (CO LOW???).  I like the set up and the potential is there for a lot of you north of I-80 to be in the game.  Get those Christmas lights up!

 

 

[bud2380]

Here is the storm Tom was referencing on the Euro.  Long ways out so plenty to change, but this is looking like a possible overriding event.  Those are always fun to be on the happy side of.  

 

[Beltrami Island]

I had a low of 3 this morning.  Certainly not a record for my location, but still some pretty cold air for mid November considering it was 70 here only five days ago.  

[Minny_Weather]

I wouldn't trust Euro for anything long-range right now. Ensembles are all over the place. 

[Clinton]

Michigan folks 12z GFS keeps getting colder for ya.

[james1976]

GFS starting to come around for next weekend system.

[jaster220]

44 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Michigan folks 12z GFS keeps getting colder for ya.

Thx bud! If we could do snow squalls exactly 2 wks to the day prior, I'll be shocked if we can't with this beast. Idk what the SLP got down to then, but I think it was only 990's mb iirc. Thus my post wrt our forecaster "04" calling this a "typical autumn CF" (same person that hoisted the infamous WWA for the GHD-2 18-20" storm). Nice to have something to be excited for over this way.

Edit: Also not sure why they merely have "gale watches" hoisted and not storm watches?? Help me understand..

[james1976]

These systems were rainers a couple days ago but are transitioning to more snowier solutions. The models seem to be grasping onto a colder outlook.

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, james1976 said:

These systems were rainers a couple days ago but are transitioning to more snowier solutions. The models seem to be grasping onto a colder outlook.

Underplaying cold air?? Nah, never happens..

[james1976]

Canadian 

[bud2380]

Lock in the Euro!

 

[Stormhunter87]

23 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Lock in the Euro!

 

Yeah I saw this. That pretty impressive if it happens.

[Tom]

12z Euro weenie run for many...esp back home!  Those are insane totals and it's still snowing...just hope I see these more often Dec-Feb inside 3 days please.

 

 

[gabel23]

Things might get interesting next weekend.....take it with a grain of salt being the 18z run and 186+ hrs. out.....

[jcwxguy]

Lock it in please!

[jaster220]

It's so cold suddenly. Those snow maps may be legit! Either way, noice to see some eye candy.

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro weenie run for many...esp back home!  Those are insane totals and it's still snowing...just hope I see these more often Dec-Feb inside 3 days please.

 

 

One LR map from 5 yrs ago. And a mid-range map.

 

[jaster220]

At least they mention a potential upgrade to a Storm Warning.

Quote

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

A significant marine event is expected this weekend. A strong fall
storm system will work northeast through the Great Lakes Saturday
night and Sunday. Gale force winds at least are expected late
Saturday night and Sunday. At this point we are issuing a Gale
Warning for Saturday night through Sunday and Sunday evening. 40
to 45 knot gales are likely. Recent events have not had 50 knots
in the profile to tap into. This event is trending up in terms of
wind and we are now seeing 50 knots in the mixed layer on Sunday.
50-55 knots are seen in BUFKIT overviews at Holland on Sunday.
Worst of the conditions should be Sunday morning. Waves of 10-15
feet are likely with the potential for have peak waves above 15
feet. At this point going to roll with a Gale Warning, but the
potential exists for a possible upgrade to a Storm Warning.

 

[Madtown]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro weenie run for many...esp back home!  Those are insane totals and it's still snowing...just hope I see these more often Dec-Feb inside 3 days please.

 

 

One last hurrah before the woods

[Tom]

After analyzing the  overnight, I had flashbacks of a storm system that impacted our sub in early October with the same characteristics.  I think I just "saw" the beginnings of LRC cycle #2.  The fact that the models are slowing down this system late next weekend, it is coming in line remarkably close to what transpired back during the Oct 10th period where there was a system similar that developed in the central CONUS with an over-running event followed by a stalled CF along the OHV where a secondary SLP formed and tracked up through the OHV.  The 00z EPS is showing this more so than the GEFS right now so we'll have to see how this all plays out.  I don't have my note pad with me to validate the exact dates of this similar pattern back in Oct, but I'll double check later on. 

Nonetheless, I think we'll have our next winter storm to track....

[westMJim]

The overnight low here at my house was 24 and it looks like it fell down to 22 at the airport. At this time it is clear and 26 both here and at the airport. Now we will have to see just how windy it will be tomorrow. There are high wind warnings at the lake shore and there is a high wind watch to the east of here and our area is in a wind advisory.

[Clinton]

Here is the 500 millibar map from October 11th if you compare it to this morning's 6z GFS for what it has happening on November 25th they line up almost perfectly.

[jaster220]

Watching to see just how low Sunday's storm can bomb out, and whether our winds end up worse than currently headlined. As of the overnight AFD it's expected to go sub-980 mb

Quote

We will need to monitor the risk for greater than
50 knot winds inland Sunday Afternoon. Based on the Nam and GFS in
Bufkit...places like Lansing and Grand Rapids are seeing the
mixing height just reaching into the 50 knot winds. If confidence
on this happening increases...we may need to upgrade the inland
wind advisory to a high wind warning.

 

[jaster220]

Coldest day by far of this autumn season. 32F or below for 14 hrs and scored our first morning in the teens here.

 

[Minny_Weather]

EPS members are still all over the place on next week's storm. Most have a storm, but the jack zones range from OK to MB.

[GDR]

Looks like a good soaker and not snowstorm. But hey lots of time.

[james1976]

GFS back to the rainy outlook 

[Tom]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Coldest day by far of this autumn season. 32F or below for 14 hrs and scored our first morning in the teens here.

 

Brrrr!!!  Man, we are heading into the upper 70's today/tomorrow then upper 80's for most of next week...back to summer over here...got my tan back and getting used to this weather over here TBH.  Boy, when I get back and if its that cold I'm gonna freeze my tail off!  It'll be quite the shock to the system.