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November 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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44 minutes ago, Tom said:

You guys will be under the "belly of the beast" soon enough...I remember last year we had a similar storm as such that sparked wind advisories/warnings throughout the GL's region.  Hope we can see these beasts develop farther south with more blocking near Greenland.

Indeed. We don't want a super neg NAO, but we do need neutral to somewhat negative. Looks like my county was a narrow miss on the HWW last autumn. I think it was 2018 when we last scored the headline here. Winds are really cranking now!

20191127 US Hazards map.JPG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12 minutes ago, Niko said:

Attm, a balmy 51F under cloudy skies and strong winds.

Backside winds are freal, and running just about 1 hr behind that line of T-showers that passed through.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Backside winds are freal, and running just about 1 hr behind that line of T-showers that passed through.

Can you imagine having winds this strong, along w a snowstorm in progress. Look-out!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Starting to hear gusts roaring thru the trees occasionally now.

15/0z GFS has come in a bit colder on the backside again, looking stout Sunday 18z @ 975 mb

Similar location to the storm that sank the SS Fitzgerald (notice what I did to the map?? 😉)

 

20201115 0z GFS Fitz-3 storm.png

Yes I did....very clever! Good Job! 👏

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12 deg drop in past 2 hrs here.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Can you imagine having winds this strong, along w a snowstorm in progress. Look-out!

Like this?

 

20201115 APX SN Graphic.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Like this?

 

20201115 APX SN Graphic.png

Exactly!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'll take another cold rain to tighten precip defecit. LNK is only at 21.93" for the year, which is relatively high due to a wet May-July. OMA is at 16.03"! I'd definitely want a flip to more wintry after Thanksgiving through, December in recent years has been infamous for big rainers. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Been at work so cannot even see outside, but nice to see a forecast not fall apart.

980mb low is centered just northeast of Sault Ste Marie as of
19z...which is about where and to the depth that is was forecast.
Expect it to continue to drop in pressure this evening. Strong
pressure gradient remains in place across the area this evening so
have made no change to the High Wind Warning. It continues through
1000pm. Statewide power outages are now closing in on a quarter of
a million at 202,086 as of 256pm per poweroutage.us. We are
routinely gusting to around or above 50 mph at this time and
expect this to remain the case into the evening hours as the core
of the wind is moving through. Peak wind remains 68 mph at a
mesonet in Norton Shores and we have recently had a gust to 66
mph at a mesonet in Jackson as of 314pm. Bottom line High Wind
Warning is working out well and remains in place.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Current wind speed at 30mph w gusts as high as 50. Temp is at 40F. Wcf in the upper 20s. Skies are overcast.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like a ridge is coming after this coldsnap this week.

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/PatternLateWeek.jpg?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Current wind speed at 30mph w gusts as high as 50. Temp is at 40F. Wcf in the upper 20s. Skies are overcast.

Stepped out of work about 9:15 pm just in time to catch a pretty decent snow shower. It was coming down good but brief and very wet snow. All the models showing a change-over far south in the Mitt were off a bit on their thermals. WWA for NWMI is happening as usual, ofc they have both elevation and climo in their favor. I still like as a step-down to #winter.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Looks like a ridge is coming after this coldsnap next week.

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/PatternLateWeek.jpg?w=632

Yeah, looks like all the models of a big snowstorm were majorly wrong. But almost every analog produces a warm to very warm November, so not shocking really.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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54 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, looks like all the models of a big snowstorm were majorly wrong. But almost every analog produces a warm to very warm November, so not shocking really.

I'd say, save the best for December and beyond. 😉

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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As many of noted (including myself), this autumn certainly has delivered many windy days.  IMO, it's a way nature provides us clues going forward.  The atmosphere is churning up.  Here are some stats from LOT that show this has been a windier than normal autumn.

1.png

 

 

MDW peak gust from yesterday up to 69 mph!  

2.png

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58 minutes ago, Tom said:

00z EPS suggesting a ribbon of heavy precip a bit farther S than the GEFS for the weekend system...at least there will be more moisture coming to those who need it...

1.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_31.png

The pattern has turned much wetter the last couple of weeks in my area.  I am much more optimistic about winter going forward than I was in Oct.

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Attm, mostly cloudy and still breezy w temps in the 30s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Iota is a monster! On the verge of being a CAT5.

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/20203210130-20203210940-GOES16-ABI-AL312020-13-1000x1000-1.gif?w=632

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/page-25-1.jpg?w=632

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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55 minutes ago, Niko said:

Iota is a monster! On the verge of being a CAT5.

Yep, it is a pretty impressive late-season burst of action in the Caribbean.  The water down there is always plenty warm for tropical cyclones, but this year's shear-reducing la nina and a favorable pattern has led to what we're seeing.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Dang things don't look good for me being able to snowboard all November. I'm getting fat from this huge gap between water and snow sports. I just need a dry 30 hour spell in the mid 20s or colder and none of this 60 degree plus stuff.

I feel like this winter is already turning into "one really good month in February and the rest sucks"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yep, it is a pretty impressive late-season burst of action in the Caribbean.  The water down there is always plenty warm for tropical cyclones, but this year's shear-reducing la nina and a favorable pattern has led to what we're seeing.

This has been a unpresedented "Tropical Season." Crazy stuff!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

What a year for the Tropics...2020 continues to deliver an anomalous year in the wx dept....

I just wonder how far "The Names" will carry out to. At this rate, might as well finish the list. Unimaginable year for the tropics!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, 42F w mostly cloudy skies and still a little breezy out there, but nowhere near yesterdays ferocious wind gusts. 

 

Btw: Detroit yesterday had a wind gust of 61mph and 65 in nearby locales. Lots of power outrages and trees down.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A little snow tanite could whiten up grassy surfaces and rooftops, just enough to get ya in the holiday spirit as a disturbance rolls on through. Temp will fall in the upper 20s for nighttime lows and much colder Tuesday w highs only in the low to mid 30s and lows upper teens to low 20s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Snow will develop tanite, w temps dropping into the upper 20s. Per radar, its coming......minor accumulations, if any, (mainly grassy surfaces). Its a quick mover also.

Jaster....this outta put you in the mood for decorating your Christmas lights outside your property....😉

https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/wu/wxtype/county_loc/day/animate.png

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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