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November 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Good morning from the warmest region in the nation!  Could we do it again today...3-peat???  Models are suggesting another 90F day today for the PHX metro which would set 2 new records.  I think we do it as each day of this week we surpassed our predicted highs by a couple of degrees.

Meantime, the 00z EPS continues to trend S with the late weekend system...looks like it will be mostly a rainer for most of you in the MW/GL's...

2.png

 

 

On the flip side, looking ahead towards Thanksgiving week, could there be a Thanksgiving winter storm brewing for the MW/GL's???  I'm seeing very interesting trends off the models as both the EPS/GEFS are picking up on more blocking across Canada...the good Ol' Hudson Bay block...

 

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My office thinks we have a shot at flakes with this weekend's system somewhere in the region but then go on to say it will trend S and whiff us, lol. They mention the holiday event next week as well.

Quote


-- Next system Sunday rain and snow possible --

Our next system comes from the jet core associated with the
Pacific storm that I wrote about in my first paragraph. Being a
progressive upper air pattern, the polar jet comes back through
this area Friday with associated wind core of 130 knots passing
just north of TVC by midday. That pushes a cold front through this
area, but, due to the lack of mid level moisture, it will be dry.

Meanwhile, a more impressive system, currently over the west
Pacific, reaches the Bering Sea and norther Gulf of Alaska by
Friday. That in turn pushes a lead wave into the Pacific
Northwest by Saturday morning. That lead wave digs some and
causes the aforementioned Polar Jet, still over Michigan at that
point, to lift northward. So, our precipitation event on Sunday
is due to the right entrance region lift of that departing Polar
Jet. The track of the system and associated precipitation will
depend on just how this all plays out by then. A stronger lead
wave that digs more may cause more upstream ridging and bring more
of rain event to this area. A weaker and more progressive wave
would keep the system farther south, maybe allowing all the
precipitation to stay south of Michigan totally.

Over time (past 3 days) the ECMWF has slowly adjusted that system
south with time. The GFS has been much farther north than the
ECMWF with system but the 18/00z run of the GFS is more like the
ECMWF 24 hours ago. There is enough cold air so that the northern
edge of the precipitation would most likely be snow. Given the
setup, it would be a 3 to 6 inch sort of event in the area of the
heaviest snow. Both the ECMWF and GFS ensemble do show snow with
this system, even as far south as GRR. In fact about 1/2 the
members of the 18th/00z run of ECMWF give GRR at at least a 1/2
inch of snow and about 1/3 of the 50 members give GRR from 1 to 2
inches. Meanwhile the 18th/00z GFS has nearly 1/2 the members
giving GRR at least inches of snow. About 1/3 of those members
give GRR over 4 inches of snow from that system. My spin is the
system will likely track farther south than currently forecast.
We may see some snow from it but do not be surprised if it ends
up tracking south of this area and we get no precipitation at all.
This is a system we will have to continue to watch for possible
impacts.

-- Cool Monday into Tuesday, then warming again --

Our progressive upper air pattern will remain so, thus the next
Pacific system will likely do what the current one is doing. That
would mean cool weather Monday into Tuesday, then a warm up,
followed by another possible wet system mid to late next week. At
this point Thanksgiving may be in the time frame of our next
storm. The ECMWF ensembles have 80 percent of their members given
this area precipitation on Thanksgiving, the mean being around
0.30 inches. About 1/3 of those ensembles give GRR at least 3
inches of snow. So we will need to watch that system too.

That EPS qpf swath looks sweet! Are we finally seeing the winter pattern??  Yesterday I touted 98-99 analog, but kinda forgot our No. 1 analog of 07-08. These next 2 systems remind me of that winter when warmth surrounded perfectly timed cold connections to produce a very storm-filled winter. Let's see how this next 10 days plays out. Starting to get interesting here..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Proud to announce that Detroit yesterday received its first official measurable snow of the season...0.2."

 

'grats on beating mby! Though KBTL is perhaps closer to me then DTW is to Macomb, and they may have recorded a slight accumulation with the squalls back on the 1st. Need to peek at that possibility. Still, I record for here anyways and have only had a "T" officially 2X now. But, I think there's a pretty good shot going forward.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Proud to announce that Detroit yesterday received its first official measurable snow of the season...0.2."

 

As suspected, BC has indeed recorded a bit of snow this month, but they're almost 20 miles closer to Lake Michigan and makes a huge difference wrt LES events.

 

20201117 KBTL Snow to date.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The big weekend system vanished.

No it didn't, it just moved south of y'all Iowans.

 

20201118 0z Euro EPS 150 hr Rainfall.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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14 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

There she goes.  Shouldn't have surprised me.  This has been the theme for going on 7 months.  The drought continues to wear on here.

Yeah, it's kinda gone to weak sauce even over here..sigh. Our ponds are really really low tbh. Need a true autumn soaker type event and was hoping this was the one.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I was originally supposed to flirt with 60 today, but a substantial and unexpected cumulus deck is here which might keep me in the 40s today. Another day in the 40s tomorrow before I start seeing highs in the 30s again. Currently 38*F.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Just took my garbage out to the curb and saw a BEE flying around the dead flowers of an old Aster bush in our front yard. 59.7 degrees already this morning.

And it's NOVEMBER 18th. Unbelievable!

Yeah, I drove to Minnesota the weekend before last (after 4 straight days in the 70s) and there were dead smashed bugs on my windshield when I got back. Hard to believe they're in Spring mode.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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34 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, it's kinda gone to weak sauce even over here..sigh. Our ponds are really really low tbh. Need a true autumn soaker type event and was hoping this was the one.

Most ponds around here have been dry for months.  Been a long time since I remember anything like this.  Hard to make up much moisture in the winter time.

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27 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Most ponds around here have been dry for months.  Been a long time since I remember anything like this.  Hard to make up much moisture in the winter time.

Over here we can actually make up hydro deficits during the winter. We're much more dependent on system moisture vs convection. There's a reason you're region is semi-arid and mine is forested. But, there has been a string of wet years around here and it seems to be trying to balance that out attm.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18/12z ICON still brings the juice (GEPS is decent too fwiw) so maybe others will stop the S trend and come back a little. Iiuc, it has to do with if/when exactly a wave forms on the front. We've had this same scenario a couple times this year and it's trended better "last minute" so I'll have to allow for that potential I suppose.

 

20201018 12z h114 Total RN.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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29 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Over here we can actually make up hydro deficits during the winter. We're much more dependent on system moisture vs convection. There's a reason you're region is semi-arid and mine is forested. But, there has been a string of wet years around here and it seems to be trying to balance that out attm.

I average about 25 inches of precipitation a year at my location in Central Nebraska.  Last year we had over 40 inches and several big years before that.  As of now, we are maybe at 17 inches and only a couple inches since early July.

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Attm, 42F under sunny skies. Splendid day!

 

Btw: Warm-up is very brief. Only 2 days (Th n Fri). It gets colder by the weekend and stays BN all of next week as of now.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z NAM has snow mixing in for mby on Sunday. Seems colder than the other models.

Same here. Snow mixes in late Sunday into Sunday nite as the low tracks further south. Check my post beneath ya! 👇

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Per NOAA:

Models have been trending further south last two runs with the track
of the next wave which will now pass through central Indian and
Ohio.  Over running rain will spread into southeast Michigan late
Saturday night through Sunday night. Temp profile may be cold enough
to have some snow mix in late Sunday and Sunday night across the
north half of the CWA. Temperature look to be near normal for the
first half of next week with the next system to effect the area on
Tuesday.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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17 minutes ago, Tom said:

@FAR_Weather, have you heard of a place called “Pounds” in Fargo?  I’m watching Guy Fieri and he filmed a show there.  If you like guilty pleasures that’s the spot!  The place looks like it had a great ambience.

Yes! It was pretty well publicized when he was here. Glad you saw the episode!

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Never seen one of these issued before:

Fire Warning


KSC085-149-177-190000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
KANSAS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY TOPEKA KANSAS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
252 PM CST WED NOV 18 2020

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE KANSAS
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY TOPEKA KANSAS.

FROM SHAWNEE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT..RESPONDERS ARE FIGHTING
A LARGE DANGEROUS FIRE IN NW SHAWNEE COUNTY. PLEASE AVOID THE
AREA WEST OF ROSSVILLE AND NORTH AND ALONG HIGHWAY 24.

 

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Just now, OmahaSnowFan said:

Never seen one of these issued before:

Fire Warning



KSC085-149-177-190000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
KANSAS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY TOPEKA KANSAS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
252 PM CST WED NOV 18 2020

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE KANSAS
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY TOPEKA KANSAS.

FROM SHAWNEE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT..RESPONDERS ARE FIGHTING
A LARGE DANGEROUS FIRE IN NW SHAWNEE COUNTY. PLEASE AVOID THE
AREA WEST OF ROSSVILLE AND NORTH AND ALONG HIGHWAY 24.

 

I was just posting this as well...you've already posted the text but I'm adding the map.

Don't think I've ever seen a fire warning before...at least not on my area forecast map. Thought others might find this interesting.

Screenshot_2020-11-18 Topeka, KS.png

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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More flakes showing up in my grid icons. GRR for once has put the correct info in their AFD by saying all options are on the table. Normally they pick one and decide that'll be the outcome.

Quote

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020

-Windy and Mild Thursday and Friday

-Dry Through Saturday; Rain or Snow Possible Sunday

-Another Rain/Snow System Possible next Wednesday

Confidence is still low with respect to the precipitation
potential, amounts and type on Sunday as ensemble members are
offering up anything from a dry forecast to widespread rain of
over one inch to a swath of wet snow through the area.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

More flakes showing up in my grid icons. GRR for once has put the correct info in their AFD by saying all options are on the table. Normally they pick one and decide that'll be the outcome.

 

Stay tuned amigo...looks very interesting.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 hours ago, Niko said:

Attm, 42F under sunny skies. Splendid day!

 

Btw: Warm-up is very brief. Only 2 days (Th n Fri). It gets colder by the weekend and stays BN all of next week as of now.

#2020 wx.  Noticed a couple of ponds in the area still had decent ice coverage mid-afternoon despite 46F and sunshine. Came home and was working in my yard and noticed a couple dandelions in bloom. 😄

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

#2020 wx.  Noticed a couple of ponds in the area still had decent ice coverage mid-afternoon despite 46F and sunshine. Came home and was working in my yard and noticed a couple dandelions in bloom. 😄

Not a good sign I am sensing......🤔....that, or perhaps, your grass needs treatment come Spring! 😅

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The GFS has quickly trended toward a much stronger Tuesday/Wednesday system tracking across the region.  It is mostly rain, though.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Thought maybe just maybe we were turning some kind of corner for this area. Nevermind, lol.

Just glad I got my November wind storm and a decent rainfall (by 2020 stds) along with it.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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58 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Hr 216 on GFS is what I'm thinking grows really soon. Has the look, but if the cold stays cut off, I'll miss again.

ENS are trending warmer and I haven't examined a EURO in a min. I still say facts don't lie. Not at all.

I see nothing @ h216 on any of the last 3 runs. You sure?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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PHX did it again and set a new record high yesterday of 89F.  Thankfully, that'll be the last of the record heat for this year, at least no more 90's...now comes some real delightful weather with temps in the 80's and 70's all of next week.  Prime time late Autumn weather in the valley of the sun.

Regarding the storm system for this weekend, it continues to trend S and has a TX Panhandle Hook "look" to it, right?

 

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Based off what I'm seeing, it appears to me that there will be 2 or 3 storm systems to track throughout Thanksgiving week.  These systems will primarily target the eastern and southern Sub while those out west are stuck in a dry pattern.  The flip towards a +PNA pattern will keep the storms from cutting NW.  Temps for the most part look marginal for any wintry precip, but the moisture is what a lot of members need.  It's still early in the cold season to talk about snow that will stick around for more than a few days.  Take what mother nature gives ya.

After this weekends system, the Black Wednesday storm looks to effect almost the same regions that will benefit from this weekends storm.  Following that, the EPS ensembles are picking up a storm forming out of the TX Panhandle region and tracking into the OHV.  This particular storm may lay down some snowfall.  With that being said, look at that AN precip stripe across the S MW into the Lower Lakes region.

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Thinking about Snow???  The EPS is targeting the GL's region...primarily late month into early December...

 

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Today looks to be another mild and windy day. Several items come to mind for this November. 1. How warm it has been. 2. How windy it has been. and 3. how much sunshine we have had. Today forecast is for highs in the lower 60's while todays record high is 74 set in 1930 and it has reached 70 or better 3 times. But if it reaches into the lower 60's this would only be the 14th time it has reached 60 or better on November 19th in Grand Rapids recorded history.'

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