Niko Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 This looks like the general theme going forward and would not be surprised, if it continues into early December. Looks like colder air filters in by the later parts of December and sticks around. I'll accept this! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Attm, a balmy 50F under mostly cloudy skies. There is a "Wind Advisory" in effect for mby. Winds could gusts to as high as 45mph. Not as bad as last weekend, but, nevertheless, still strong enough to blow light objects around and cause some minor power outages. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 4 hours ago, Tom said: PHX did it again and set a new record high yesterday of 89F. Thankfully, that'll be the last of the record heat for this year, at least no more 90's...now comes some real delightful weather with temps in the 80's and 70's all of next week. Prime time late Autumn weather in the valley of the sun. Regarding the storm system for this weekend, it continues to trend S and has a TX Panhandle Hook "look" to it, right? That'd be decent if it's correct. Are these maps from a subscription at that site, or free? I thought you were doing a WxBell sub for your Euro maps? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 2 hours ago, westMJim said: Today looks to be another mild and windy day. Several items come to mind for this November. 1. How warm it has been. 2. How windy it has been. and 3. how much sunshine we have had. Today forecast is for highs in the lower 60's while todays record high is 74 set in 1930 and it has reached 70 or better 3 times. But if it reaches into the lower 60's this would only be the 14th time it has reached 60 or better on November 19th in Grand Rapids recorded history.' This! Was thinking the same thing as the brightness of it shone in my bedroom windows and woke me up yet again. I can't remember so many sunny days in every season for this area. Feels like Florida tbh. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, jaster220 said: That'd be decent if it's correct. Are these maps from a subscription at that site, or free? I thought you were doing a WxBell sub for your Euro maps? Ryan Maue’s weather models site../ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Keepin hope alive 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Not familiar with this forecaster's initials at GRR. Wonder if he/she is new? Especially since they seem more bullish on wintry precip chances than is typical from that office. I'm not used to it. Quote -- Chance of rain and/or snow Sunday -- There remains a fair amount of disagreement in the GFS and ECMWF ensembles about the location of a sharpening baroclinic zone / front over the weekend and the track of a deepening low pressure system through the southern Great Lakes on Sunday, and this will have everything to do with the temperature and precip amount/type forecast. The ECMWF ensembles have trended toward a middle-of-the- road mode with a quarter-inch of precip and 1-3 inches of snow, though there are some outliers with very little precip and also up to an inch of precip. Last night`s 00Z run of the GEFS also had a large spread among its members, though the average precip amounts at both GRR and JXN were around an inch, much of it falling as snow. So, while uncertainty remains, it`s quite possible that much of the area could see a blanket of snow on Sunday. I see zero models trending positive for Sunday, and next week's snow chance looks to be just north of here. Oh well, as been said, it's still early for this region. Wouldn't mind getting "on the board" going into December tho. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 37 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Not familiar with this forecaster's initials at GRR. Wonder if he/she is new? Especially since they seem more bullish on wintry precip chances than is typical from that office. I'm not used to it. I see zero models trending positive for Sunday, and next week's snow chanceslooks to be just north of here. Oh well, as been said, it's still early for this region. Wouldn't mind getting "on the board" going into December tho. The UKMET looks like the EC with 2 snows for ya in the next 7 days. Round 1 And the total from the 2 storms. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: The UKMET looks like the EC with 2 snows for ya in the next 7 days. Round 1 And the total from the 2 storms. Thanks bud, I didn't even think/remember to peek at the Ukie. Perhaps I spoke a bit soon and I'd gladly be wrong on that, lol. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Thanks bud, I didn't even think/remember to peek at the Ukie. Perhaps I spoke a bit soon and I'd gladly be wrong on that, lol. I'm not sure your wrong this part of the pattern is warm. But your close to the hot spot this year so it's possible for ya to get some snow out of this. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 It is now officially 64 at GRR and this ties 1985 for the 8th warmest November 19th of record. At this time it is clear and windy here with and it is also 64 here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Clinton said: The UKMET looks like the EC with 2 snows for ya in the next 7 days. Round 1 And the total from the 2 storms. Thanks for posting this Clinton... Looks like a decent hit! 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Thanks bud, I didn't even think/remember to peek at the Ukie. Perhaps I spoke a bit soon and I'd gladly be wrong on that, lol. I remember Ukie scoring big a couple of times in recent Winters. Something to keep an eye on for our regions this weekend. Do I dare get my snowblower ready during Thanksgiving week? I would not mind, as this would be an acceptable timing in my books. As long as its not early to mid November! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Drought continues. No relief in sight. Very sad. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Made it to 74.1 today in my backyard. It was mostly cloudy this morning, but cleared up this afternoon and even better... winds were under 5 mph this afternoon. Beautiful! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 A thin band of moderate-heavy rain is about to pass. Icing is a concern with temps being around freezing. 1 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: Drought continues. No relief in sight. Very sad. Here in T-town we have only had 0.73" of precip since Oct 1 which is only about 21% of normal, though we do have rain chances during the next week. Dry and warm has been the rule with Nov temp anomaly running at +4.3F for the month. I sure hope Dec-Feb is not like this...lol 3 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 8 hours ago, westMJim said: It is now officially 64 at GRR and this ties 1985 for the 8th warmest November 19th of record. At this time it is clear and windy here with and it is also 64 here. 30 hours ago it was a string of 20's and this pm a string of 60's. Quite the ride we're taking. 65F for the high so we blasted past the 59F forecast. Finished my autumn yard chores and got started on holiday lights. About 7-10 days earlier than usual but I cannot remember stringing 'em up in shirt sleeves before. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 My high was 63F. Almost hit a record, but no cigar! We will do it again tomorrow b4 we are back to normal November weather and then BN. Man, once those winds kicked in earlier today, that warmth rushed in quickly. It will be a mild evening tanite w breezy conditions. Speaking of breezy, winds topped off today at 46mph. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 My day off work so been busy with said chores and errands, but now enjoying a quiet evening and a great one at that as I find myself in snow tracking mode for the first (legit) time this season. While some globals have shoved the main precip swath south of the Mitt completely, the Euro, Ukie, and now in range NAM are reflecting a curl northward as shown on Tom's map this morning which brings decent qpf into SMI. These same models also turn just cold enough to indicate some if not all the moisture falling as snow. Not a huge deal by any means, but 2-5" amounts seem in play attm. Waiting for 0z runs ofc, but my pm AFD is actually saying that accumulations are possible. NAM 12k has a nice looking development and is on the colder side with virtually all snow. 1 1 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 @Niko UKmet really likes us this week. Keep in mind this is for Sunday and next Tue/Wed. It's also SLR, not Kuchera but it's still nice to see those purple shades. Even half would be a great start here. See if other models trend our way?? 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 GRR Quote -- Chance of rain/snow Sunday; accumulations possible -- Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to support the sfc front being well to our south on Sunday with MI in the cold air north of the front. While the ensemble mean QPF has been trending lower with time, there`s still some support for snow or a mix of rain and snow occurring as a sfc low tracks through OH toward Lk Erie. The best chance would be for areas south and east of Grand Rapids. If the precipitation is relatively light on Sunday, which looks quite possible, wet bulbing won`t be as effective and it may be more of a light rain/snow mix with not much impact as temps warm to the upper 30s to around 40. However if heavier precipitation rates can develop underneath a deformation zone band, the snow could become heavy enough to lower the sfc temps and accumulate - creating travel impacts. The best chance of seeing that appears to be across the higher elevation area around Jackson (the Irish Hills), but a few EC ensemble members still hint at a few inches of accumulation for areas farther north including GRR, MOP, RQB. -- Another system Tuesday-Wednesday -- Strong push of warm advection initiates to our south on Tuesday and precipitation may break out by afternoon in the form of mixed rain and snow. Still big uncertainty though as to how the main system evolves/tracks on Wednesday also leading to questions of precip amounts and types. It`s possible we`ll see some impacts so this system will need monitored as we approach the holiday. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 20/0z GEM, ICON, and GFS have joined the north party after over-shooting the landing zone. GFS still warm, but the others have at least some snow in the defo zone. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, jaster220 said: 20/0z GEM, ICON, and GFS have joined the north party after over-shooting the landing zone. GFS still warm, but the others have at least some snow in the defo zone. That looks like a good hit of snow for mby....sweet! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 Its a mild evening tanite w lows only dropping into the 40s. Skies are partly cloudy. For this time of the year, its a gorgeous nite out there. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 15 minutes ago, Niko said: That looks like a good hit of snow for mby....sweet! Would be wild if the GFS came all the way back to what it flashed 48 hrs ago.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, Niko said: Its a mild evening tanite w lows only dropping into the 40s. Skies are partly cloudy. For this time of the year, its a gorgeous nite out there. Mild and breezy night while tracking next snow system. This is totally 07-08 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: Would be wild if the GFS came all the way back to what it flashed 48 hrs ago.. True. Lets see what outcome this has for us. Right now, it looks very interesting. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Mild and breezy night while tracking next snow system. This is totally 07-08 Fill me in w 07-08 buddy. I am guessing it was a very good Winter here. Back home, that year was a total dud. If you look back at snowfall tally's, I think less than 5" had fallen all Winter. I remember a lot of sleet came w that Winter. Hardly any snow. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 22 hours ago, jaster220 said: I see nothing @ h216 on any of the last 3 runs. You sure? Something is up. Just wait... The event is there. Right on cue. This is on time, but have to see if the cold fills in. There's going to be changes between now and then over the cold source regions and it is November. Elsewise, I would be calling for a big snow already. I just can't call it a lie. Its almost exactly on the time I stated and 3 days is a long time in model land. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 FAR_Weather would have liked this....... 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 44 minutes ago, Niko said: FAR_Weather would have liked this....... Yes, yes I would have. Dry as a bone on models here... 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Niko said: Fill me in w 07-08 buddy. I am guessing it was a very good Winter here. Back home, that year was a total dud. If you look back at snowfall tally's, I think less than 5" had fallen all Winter. I remember a lot of sleet came w that Winter. Hardly any snow. Can best describe it as "very snowy" but not a deep winter. The snow came often and melted just as regularly. January was above normal temps but still managed 2 feet of snow here. KBTL had 93" for the season. A bit less here in Marshall no doubt. Temps did the roller-coaster effect but there were many storms to track. Snow never got too deep, barely making double digits. I did see that Bloomingdale in the snowbelt had their snowiest season with a whopping 160" total but barely managed a 12" depth max. We were glad to get so much snow tho, as it could easily have been rain instead. Seemed like it got just cold enough to snow every time. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 6 hours ago, Niko said: That looks like a good hit of snow for mby....sweet! Good luck up there! It should be a nice one for you guys. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 With the record warm start to November 2020 the month is now running at near record warm levels. With 11 days to go the mean at Grand Rapids is now at 47.8° IF that were to hold until the end of the month it would set a new record. Yesterdays high of 64 was the 8th warmest recorded for November 19th at Grand Rapids. The official overnight low at GRR was 53. The low here at my house was 52 at this time it is clear and 55 both here at my house and at the airport. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 Suppression without cold air already? yawn. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 3 hours ago, Clinton said: Good luck up there! It should be a nice one for you guys. We will see it this plays out. Who knows, still early in the game. Stay tuned though! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 9 hours ago, jaster220 said: Can best describe it as "very snowy" but not a deep winter. The snow came often and melted just as regularly. January was above normal temps but still managed 2 feet of snow here. KBTL had 93" for the season. A bit less here in Marshall no doubt. Temps did the roller-coaster effect but there were many storms to track. Snow never got too deep, barely making double digits. I did see that Bloomingdale in the snowbelt had their snowiest season with a whopping 160" total but barely managed a 12" depth max. We were glad to get so much snow tho, as it could easily have been rain instead. Seemed like it got just cold enough to snow every time. Awesome! Back in NYC that year, it was a "Very" frustrating Winter. Sleet after sleet/freezing rain and etc. It just did not wanna snow, but the following years rocked. I remember, we got blasted w snowstorms, especially 2009-10 and 2010-11. IIRC, back in December 2010, Meteorologists were cought off guard w a severe blizzard that paralyzed NYC. It was after Christmas Day (Dec 26-27th). They were calling for a few inches and instead, we received 20 to 30 inches of snow ( my area received 29.1" Northern Queens vicinity). I remember I submitted a long disquisition to the TWC and to other weather stations, stated that these mistakes should not be happening. A lot of people got stranded, roads were impassable, supermarkets were all emptied out and etc. Enjoy the pics.... AHHHhhh...the good ol' Nor Easters!!!!!! Now, these are real snowstorms. 6 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Niko said: Awesome! Back in NYC that year, it was a "Very" frustrating Winter. Sleet after sleet/freezing rain and etc. It just did not wanna snow, but the following years rocked. I remember, we got blasted w snowstorms, especially 2009-10 and 2010-11. IIRC, back in December 2010, Meteorologists were cought off guard w a severe blizzard that paralyzed NYC. It was after Christmas Day (Dec 26-27th). They were calling for a few inches and instead, we received 20 to 30 inches of snow ( my area received 29.1" Northern Queens vicinity). I remember I submitted a long disquisition to the TWC and to other weather stations, stated that these mistakes should not be happening. A lot of people got stranded, roads were impassable, supermarkets were all emptied out and etc. Enjoy the pics.... AHHHhhh...the good ol' Nor Easters!!!!!! Now, these are real snowstorms. Yeah, that was a crazy storm in NYC! We'd had little up to that point here, so the shoe was on the other foot as they say. Winter 10-11 did finally get going back here, but SWMI was NOT the epicenter as regions W, N, and even E did better in the snowstorm dept. Awesome photos, thx for sharing 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 Watching for my "inch" on the deck with Sunday's system. We only avg 1.9" for November, so this would be typical. Quote -- System on Sunday may still bring rain and snow -- Most of the heavier precipitation on Sunday will be just south of the state of Michigan where the best dynamic lift will be. The precipitation from this event is caused by the entrance region to the same jet that is bringing the cold front through today. A shortwave coming out of the North Pacific wave train races east and tries to dig a mid level trough as it moves east. That caused the jet segment over Michigan to lift north, which is why our southern rows of counties are in the north edge of the significant precipitation with this event. If that Pacific shortwave digs a little more, that would cause the jet entrance region to be farther north and in turn bring more precipitation into the I-96 area. The ECMWF has been tracking farther south with each model run on this system over the past 36 hours, while the GFS is tracking farther north and west. Seems the ideal place will end up in our I-69 area. With the wet bulb zero height near 500 ft Sunday morning this should be mostly snow there so an inch or so is possible. It the system does track a little farther north we could see 2 to 3 inches but at this point that looks unlikely. Light precipitation should linger a good part of Sunday but the heaviest rates will be near 7 am (2 or 3 hours either side of that). Just mostly cloudy over northern area with maybe some flurries or sprinkles in the afternoon. 3 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: Yeah, that was a crazy storm in NYC! We'd had little up to that point here, so the shoe was on the other foot as they say. Winter 10-11 did finally get going back here, but SWMI was NOT the epicenter as regions W, N, and even E did better in the snowstorm dept. Awesome photos, thx for sharing You bet! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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