Niko Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 Next Sunday could get interesting for some members on here......Clinton, this goes for you! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 12z EPS...first 1" of the season coming to a MI/IN member near you... 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 Temps will turn colder tanite as a CF is forecast to drive through my area this evening largely unnoticed save for a few clouds. Lows tanite will fall near the freezing mark. Attm, its a balmy 63F under partly sunny skies along w a slight breeze. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 Nebraska high school football finals are being played in 7 classes today and tonight. Low 50’s right now, perfect weather conditions. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Tom said: 12z EPS...first 1" of the season coming to a MI/IN member near you... Nice to see the Euro staying the course. Via Kuchera, expectations of 8:1 slop are in full effect. 1" of mush is indeed my target for success. Anything above that would be bonus snow and I will consider it as a good omen. Very similar snow swath progression to 07-08 too. I was looping the 5 or 6 storms we got that season this morning. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 Gaylord mentioning the Tue/Wed potential. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 Just about 65 hrs later, back to freezing here. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 00z EPS still liking SE MI/N IN... 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 The overnight low here at my house was 29 the official overnight low at GRR was 31. At this time it is mostly clear and 31 here with a lot of frost. We will have to see how much snow fall GRR records in the next 9 days. At this time only 0.2" has fallen at Grand Rapids and that was on November 1st. And that is the total for the season so far. While there is snow in the forecast and thus more snow should fall before the end of the month but at this time there are only 11 Novembers were less then 0.2" of snow has fallen. Of the 11 only 1 winter season (2001/02) with 105.2" had above average snow fall. But 3 of the lowest total snow fall seasons came after a November with no or little snow fall. (1905/03 20") (1906/07 30") and 1948/49 33.6") while the case could be made as to how accurate the 1905/6 and 1905/7 season totals were there is a good case to be made that if no or little snow falls in November at Grand Rapids that the seasonal snow fall could be below average. The average in the 11 winter seasons was just 52.2" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Tom said: 00z EPS still liking SE MI/N IN... Historically that is in line for this time of the year. So we shall see if that plays out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 Per NOAA: A disturbance can be seen on satellite moving across the northern US Rockies will kick out into the plains and amplify across the plains into the Midwest on Sunday. This will trigger the development of a low pressure system that will ride along the aforementioned stalled boundary across the Ohio River Valley through tomorrow. The GFS has come into a little better alignment with some of the other models with the latest runs and brings more of the higher QPF of the precipitation shield on the northern end of the low into southeast Michigan. The coupled jet circulation aloft and favorable wet bulb temperatures will result in a decent shot at accumulating snowfall Sunday morning. Leading moisture plume lifts across the state line around 09Z after Sunday morning with the peak of accumulating snow showers occuring roughly between 6 am and noon. Temperatures hovering in the low/mid 30s during the favored snowfall window may limit some accumulation, especially on roadways. However, heavier bursts of snowfall within focused mid level fgen could overcome surface temperatures and certainly lead to a wet/slushy snow accumulation on some roadways. The best forcing and moisture will be focused along a line from Adrian northeast through north Metro Detroit with lighter precipitation extending north through the I-69 corridor. Given a trend towards colder solutions and slightly better consensus on QPF amounts, will trend snowfall totals slightly higher with amounts in the 1-2" range within the favorable forcing zone. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 Attm, its 37F under some high clouds. Wind is hardly a factor. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 1 hour ago, westMJim said: The overnight low here at my house was 29 the official overnight low at GRR was 31. At this time it is mostly clear and 31 here with a lot of frost. We will have to see how much snow fall GRR records in the next 9 days. At this time only 0.2" has fallen at Grand Rapids and that was on November 1st. And that is the total for the season so far. While there is snow in the forecast and thus more snow should fall before the end of the month but at this time there are only 11 Novembers were less then 0.2" of snow has fallen. Of the 11 only 1 winter season (2001/02) with 105.2" had above average snow fall. But 3 of the lowest total snow fall seasons came after a November with no or little snow fall. (1905/03 20") (1906/07 30") and 1948/49 33.6") while the case could be made as to how accurate the 1905/6 and 1905/7 season totals were there is a good case to be made that if no or little snow falls in November at Grand Rapids that the seasonal snow fall could be below average. The average in the 11 winter seasons was just 52.2" '98, '06, & '10 had less than 0.5" Novembers, yet went on to be decent to good snow seasons. 06-07 ended up about 125% above average actually. November in GR can be a tell-tale, but back-loaded winters do happen and Nina's are known for warm Novembers. But I think you prefer to focus on dire snow outcomes for some reason. Winter hasn't yet begun. If we're sitting with so little snow a month from now, that will be much more concerning to me. Anyhow, cheers Mate! I do enjoy your stat digging. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Niko said: Per NOAA: A disturbance can be seen on satellite moving across the northern US Rockies will kick out into the plains and amplify across the plains into the Midwest on Sunday. This will trigger the development of a low pressure system that will ride along the aforementioned stalled boundary across the Ohio River Valley through tomorrow. The GFS has come into a little better alignment with some of the other models with the latest runs and brings more of the higher QPF of the precipitation shield on the northern end of the low into southeast Michigan. The coupled jet circulation aloft and favorable wet bulb temperatures will result in a decent shot at accumulating snowfall Sunday morning. Leading moisture plume lifts across the state line around 09Z after Sunday morning with the peak of accumulating snow showers occuring roughly between 6 am and noon. Temperatures hovering in the low/mid 30s during the favored snowfall window may limit some accumulation, especially on roadways. However, heavier bursts of snowfall within focused mid level fgen could overcome surface temperatures and certainly lead to a wet/slushy snow accumulation on some roadways. The best forcing and moisture will be focused along a line from Adrian northeast through north Metro Detroit with lighter precipitation extending north through the I-69 corridor. Given a trend towards colder solutions and slightly better consensus on QPF amounts, will trend snowfall totals slightly higher with amounts in the 1-2" range within the favorable forcing zone. Get that snow board ready amigo. Per the EPS maps Tom has posted Marshall and your region are in the same shading so we could get similar amounts unless things change. GRR did mention the GFS has come to the party a little late to the gig but showing up nonetheless. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 Just now, jaster220 said: Get that snow board ready amigo. Per the EPS maps Tom has posted Marshall and your region are in the same shading so we could get similar amounts unless things change. GRR did mention the GFS has come to the party a little late to the gig but showing up nonetheless. Tbh, the timing is perfect as well. Thanksgiving week and at the same time putting lights outside w snow otg is superb. Oh, and hot chocolate to go w that. "Tis the Season Amigo." So far, o.2" in the snow dept and more will be added soon. Cheers to a great start to our Winter season. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 23 minutes ago, jaster220 said: '98, '06, & '10 had less than 0.5" Novembers, yet went on to be decent to good snow seasons. 06-07 ended up about 125% above average actually. November in GR can be a tell-tale, but back-loaded winters do happen and Nina's are known for warm Novembers. But I think you prefer to focus on dire snow outcomes for some reason. Winter hasn't yet begun. If we're sitting with so little snow a month from now, that will be much more concerning to me. Anyhow, cheers Mate! I do enjoy your stat digging. Good point.....Also, tbh, Winter starts full gear ( now, this is in my books ), from Christmas Day till end of February. That is the brunt of Winter time according to my calendar, but I would not mind to get additional snowstorms and cold weather till mid March. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 Currently at 40F under mostly cloudy skies. I can smell the snow in the air already. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: '98, '06, & '10 had less than 0.5" Novembers, yet went on to be decent to good snow seasons. 06-07 ended up about 125% above average actually. November in GR can be a tell-tale, but back-loaded winters do happen and Nina's are known for warm Novembers. But I think you prefer to focus on dire snow outcomes for some reason. Winter hasn't yet begun. If we're sitting with so little snow a month from now, that will be much more concerning to me. Anyhow, cheers Mate! I do enjoy your stat digging. I might have given the wrong impression. I did not mean that just because there was little to no snow in November that the winter season would be a total wash out but that the chances of much above average snow fall would be much lower. Of the top 25 snowiest seasons at Grand Rapids only 2001/02 with 105.2' (of witch 53.9" fell in December of that 51.7" fell from December 23rd to the 31st) 1962/63 with 89.7" (that year December and January were extremely cold and snowy) 2006/07 A back loaded winter. 1998/99 had a very snowy January with 46.8" Of the 11 winters I had on my list (winters where November had 0.2" or less) 2 of the winter 1905/06 and 1906/07 I do NOT believe the total snow fall for the winter seasons are correct with just 20" and 30" being reported. And the winter of 1984/85 while only 69.6" fell that winter January and February were cold and snowy and there was over 20" of snow on the ground in February that winter. And That winter was a La Nina winter. But hey we have no control on how the winter (or any other season) will play out so it is best to set back and see how it all plays out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 Models have trended more north and wet with the Tuesday/Wednesday system. It's looking good for 1-2" of rain across Iowa. My area could still see a bit of snow at the start. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Get that snow board ready amigo. Per the EPS maps Tom has posted Marshall and your region are in the same shading so we could get similar amounts unless things change. GRR did mention the GFS has come to the party a little late to the gig but showing up nonetheless. 30s and 4 inches of snow is absolutely useless for midwestern snowboarding when there is no base. All we need is 30 hours of temps under 28 with it being dry. Natural snow is actually absolutely horrible for a base outside of real mountains. Man-made snow is more ice-like and far denser, it grooms out very nicely and is very difficult to melt. I've seen natural, powdery snowfalls of 8in+ be groomed out to less than an inch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 The Euro continues to show potential at the end of the month. 4 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 Had a bit of ice along the shoreline this morning. Had to break some of it up to pull the dock out of the water. Go figure that this is a fast start to winter and it’s the latest I’ve waited to get out of the lake. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 12z EPS suggesting a bit more snow with the Wed/Thu system... 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 Latest per NOAA & Accu-Weather beneath: Latest hi-res guidance, specifically the RAP13, edges strong fgen around h750 along with a small area of near zero EPV along the leading edge of the precipitation with further support from h850 fgen entering by the late morning, as right entrance jet-streak dynamics also sets up to aid in snowfall production. The approaching low pressure system under SW h500 mb flow along with strong dynamic support/fgen northeast/north of the low suggests mesoscale banding may be possible with this system. If this scenario materializes, higher snow rates (higher snow ratios) and perhaps quicker cooling of the low-level profile could aid in producing snowfall totals more on the order of 2-4 inches. Latest HREF trends also hint at this lower-end possibility, and the 90th percentile snowfall accumulation total of the ingested NBM models have also trended up throughout the day (QPF amounts on uptrend). The most likely spot for these higher totals would again likely line up along the Irish Hills and northeast into Port Huron. Overall, the main forecast message going out this afternoon will be the likely chance for a slushy accumulation up to 1-2 inches by the late afternoon, noting the low-end possibility for overachieving snowfall totals, given the potential for robust forcing. Higher snowfall potential will continue to be monitored tonight as the system edges towards Michigan. 5 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 GRR -- Snow Southeast on Sunday -- A developing wave along the baroclinic zone over the Ohio Valley tonight will result in an area of frontegenetical forcing across southeast Lower Michigan during Sunday. We have trended POPS and QPF upwards across the southeast zones based on overall model consensus and the philosophy that mesoscale bands will form and perhaps pivot over this area for several hours. We are going for 1 to 3 inch accumulations across the far southeast forecast area with the highest amounts in Jackson County. Given the expectation that snow rates and dynamical cooling will overcome marginal surface/skin temps, it is possible travel will be impacted by a coating of slush on the roads, but these impacts are expected to be minor. Given the nature of mesoscale banding, it is possible that locally higher snowfall amounts, and large local variations in amounts will occur. We expect a strong gradient to the north of the area of measurable snow, with little chance for measurable snow near and north of Grand Rapids and Lansing. The snow will move off to the east by Sunday evening. A secondary trough/cold front moving through could bring light snow or flurries across the northern half of the forecast area Sunday evening, followed by scattered lake enhanced snow showers, which will end Monday morning as surface ridging moves in and inversion heights drop. --Snow North on Tuesday -- Surface ridging with seasonably cold temperatures prevails for Monday and Monday night then the sfc ridge moves east with an approaching Plains low for Tuesday. This looks like the classic set up for our central and northern forecast area to pick up a quick burst of measurable warm advection snow, with the 12Z NAM12 showing potential for 2 to 4 inches across the higher ground of the northern forecast area where cold surface temperatures will allow most of the snow to stick without melting. The snow should transition to rain/drizzle later Tuesday night as the warm advection continues, with the surface low moving through on Wednesday. Fair weather should return for Wednesday night and continue into Thanksgiving Day. && 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 12z GFS and NAM came north bringing a better slug of precip. 3" Kuchera now for me per that run. This isnt last November's cold storm but that banding led to a 14" jackpot in Jackson county, so can't rule out an over-performance with this one. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, jaster220 said: 12z GFS and NAM came north bringing a better slug of precip. 3" Kuchera now for me per that run. This isnt last November's cold storm but that banding led to a 14" jackpot in Jackson county, so can't rule out an over-performance with this one. Amigo...Correct me if I am wrong, but is that a 4-6inch snowevent for my area. WOAH! You are right though, this has a chance to be an overachiever. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Attm, skies have turned completely cloudy. Temps are getting colder and colder w a current reading of 36F. Lows tanite near 30F and yes, snow is on the way. The air is also very still outside, I mean, literally no wind at all. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 3k NAM, now in range, has a nice burst of snow around here Monday night. 6 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 51 degree, thundery, calm rain tonight. #2010throwbacks Come on winter.... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Niko said: Amigo...Correct me if I am wrong, but is that a 4-6inch snowevent for my area. WOAH! You are right though, this has a chance to be an overachiever. Thats awesome. Always good to get more than you hoped for. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Rain/sleet cocktail falling outside from a little weenie band. 36°F. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 3 hours ago, Niko said: Amigo...Correct me if I am wrong, but is that a 4-6inch snow event for my area. WOAH! You are right though, this has a chance to be an overachiever. Sure is! Ofc, it's just a guess by the model, but trends are our friends. Almost comical reading the AFD's from my office the past few days. This has gone from the usual "nothing to see here, gonna whiff south" to this evening's update calling it a "storm". Cheers! to this being "a thing" this winter for us. Quote .UPDATE... Issued at 857 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2020 Latest guidance continues to show Jackson County with the most snow in our CWA from the storm system on Sunday. Generally looking at a 2 to 3 inch amount for the county with the Brooklyn area seeing perhaps locally more. It is worth noting that there is a tight gradient of snow forecasted for Southeast and South Central Lower MI. So any northward shift of the area of snow could result in higher amounts for Jackson...Calhoun and even Ingham Counties. With surface temps near or just below freezing at time...there could be some slick spots on the roads. At this time...no changes planned and will continue to monitor trends closely. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 N. Indiana with 2" here. Happily take that. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Whoa! Tom's back yard under the real-deal snow shield Monday night per NOAA map 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 0Z GFS is a 16 day torch for the most part Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 22/0z Euro drinkin the old GFS koolaid with a fantasy range bomb over the E Lakes. Yeah, right Euro.. 2 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 DVN has me down for 1-3” now Monday night.. 2 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 6 hours ago, jaster220 said: 22/0z Euro drinkin the old GFS koolaid with a fantasy range bomb over the E Lakes. Yeah, right Euro.. There is growing EPS member support for a potential "Big" storm to form out of the deep south near Texarkana and shoot N/NE up into the OHV. This one has caught my attn Bigly because I have plans to come back home. Gonna watch this one like a hawk. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 8 hours ago, jaster220 said: Sure is! Ofc, it's just a guess by the model, but trends are our friends. Almost comical reading the AFD's from my office the past few days. This has gone from the usual "nothing to see here, gonna whiff south" to this evening's update calling it a "storm". Cheers! to this being "a thing" this winter for us. Cheers Amigo! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.