Niko Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Here we go....... First headline of the season and plenty more to come this upcoming Winter!!!!! Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 405 AM EST Sun Nov 22 2020 MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-222115- /O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.201122T0905Z-201123T0100Z/ St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee- Monroe- Including the cities of Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 405 AM EST Sun Nov 22 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow with high intensity at times and 2 to 4 inches of accumulation expected. * WHERE...St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties. * WHEN...Now until 8 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS... Low visibility and slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... A mix of light rain and snow changes to all snow during the early morning. Bursts of high intensity snowfall is expected by mid morning into early afternoon. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 NAM with a nice front end thump tomorrow night for Iowa City and CR. Drops a couple inches of snow before warming up and changing to rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Looking at thermal profiles on the NAM the 850s stay pretty cold during most of this front end hit. And precip rates are looking pretty strong. I think there is a chance this over performs before the warm air finally wins out. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Attm, snowing w temps at 32F. Its beautiful outside. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Radar is looking magnificent...loaded w moisture. 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slowpoke Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 37 minutes ago, Niko said: Radar is looking magnificent...loaded w moisture. Flakes are starting to get bigger now out here in northern St Clair county, kinda surprised we got as much snow already as we have considering the flakes have been really tiny so far, probably 1/2” or so already. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Had plans to bag up the remaining leaves that I didn’t get to before the previous snows. But this is the scene this morning. So.....no leaf bagging today apparently. Happy Sunday all! 3 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Niko said: Radar is looking magnificent...loaded w moisture. Enjoy it hope you get several inches! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Todays snow fall is missing my area to the SE that is something that happens from time to time. We will have to see if that is a set up that happens more this winter season. There is a lot of variability to year to year snowfall totals. For the snow belt areas of the Great Lakes it depends on how cold it becomes what the wind directions are and how windy it is. And if we get some big system snows to with that. In areas that do not receive as much lake effect (or any) it all depends on how systems shape up. For no lake effect areas one or two big storms will make the difference. A good example is happing right now. With todays system it looks like areas around Detroit will take a quick jump ahead of areas in Northern Michigan. At this time it is cloudy here with a temperature of 39. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Niko said: Here we go....... First headline of the season and plenty more to come this upcoming Winter!!!!! Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 405 AM EST Sun Nov 22 2020 MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-222115- /O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.201122T0905Z-201123T0100Z/ St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee- Monroe- Including the cities of Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 405 AM EST Sun Nov 22 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow with high intensity at times and 2 to 4 inches of accumulation expected. * WHERE...St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties. * WHEN...Now until 8 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS... Low visibility and slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... A mix of light rain and snow changes to all snow during the early morning. Bursts of high intensity snowfall is expected by mid morning into early afternoon. Snow began here about 4:30 per the airport unit but I'm not up for another 6 hrs with my current schedule. Had some decent rates about 30 mins ago and it looked like a full-fledged storm, other than green grass blades poking thru. Most everything besides pavement has a slushy 1/2" or so. Just enough to look very wintry. If I was pressed to estimate, I'd say we've had 1" but with 33F temp it's melting from beneath as fast as it falls so we won't see much depth. Perfect way to begin the season. You know winter's ready to do it's thing but without the clean-up. Don't mind scoring my first winter headline either, tho this one time it may have overkill. GRR leaning on a slippery spots and 1st snow of the season. Idk, I'm in town with notorious UHI, especially after torch days so there may indeed have been a period of slickness out in the county? Who knows but last November's storm on Vet's Day was also the first snow and was really bad, causing serious crashes on I-94 and warranted upgrading to a Warning (8-14" in Jackson Cnty!) but they never did. Maybe they're trying to make amends. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 56 minutes ago, westMJim said: Todays snow fall is missing my area to the SE that is something that happens from time to time. We will have to see if that is a set up that happens more this winter season. There is a lot of variability to year to year snowfall totals. For the snow belt areas of the Great Lakes it depends on how cold it becomes what the wind directions are and how windy it is. And if we get some big system snows to with that. In areas that do not receive as much lake effect (or any) it all depends on how systems shape up. For no lake effect areas one or two big storms will make the difference. A good example is happening right now. With todays system it looks like areas around Detroit will take a quick jump ahead of areas in Northern Michigan. At this time it is cloudy here with a temperature of 39. If you meant Alpena perhaps the bolded happens. Gaylord has 8.2" on the season. No way DTW records anything close to that from this. Yes, all the major reporting sites up north are below avg to date, and non-snowbelt cities have had scant snowfall. Thankfully tho, it's not like Nov 2011 when Marshall was indeed ahead of Gaylord which was a very bad omen for the winter. NMI can catch-up quickly so at this point it's not too concerning. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Canadian models also now showing a few inches for Iowa city and CR. GFS is still too warm. But the GFS did a terrible job with temperatures this summer. So I’m not trusting it’s solution with thermals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slowpoke Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 19 minutes ago, jaster220 said: If you meant Alpena perhaps the bolded happens. Gaylord has 8.2" on the season. No way DTW records anything close to that from this. Yes, all the major reporting sites up north are below avg to date, and non-snowbelt cities have had scant snowfall. Thankfully tho, it's not like Nov 2011 when Marshall was indeed ahead of Gaylord which was a very bad omen for the winter. NMI can catch-up quickly so at this point it's not too concerning. I know up at our place about 30 miles south of Gaylord we’ve had roughly 6”-7” so far this season, almost all lake effect. We’ve had roughly 1.5” so far down here at home before today’s snow. I’m actually out here in Lapeer county now and there’s probably 1.5”-2” down already today, gonna be surprised if DTX doesn’t end adding Lapeer and maybe Sanilac county to the advisory also. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 5 hours ago, Tom said: There is growing EPS member support for a potential "Big" storm to form out of the deep south near Texarkana and shoot N/NE up into the OHV. This one has caught my attn Bigly because I have plans to come back home. Gonna watch this one like a hawk. Same storm i referenced 2 days ago on the 29th or so. Its gonna be a big deal, in my opinion. This one has had a hole burning in my mind as the "kickoff to winter". Will be interesting over the next few days. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 48 minutes ago, Slowpoke said: I know up at our place about 30 miles south of Gaylord we’ve had roughly 6”-7” so far this season, almost all lake effect. We’ve had roughly 1.5” so far down here at home before today’s snow. I’m actually out here in Lapeer county now and there’s probably 1.5”-2” down already today, gonna be surprised if DTX doesn’t end adding Lapeer and maybe Sanilac county to the advisory also. Looks like you have an SWS, eh? I'm a native of Genesee Cnty, are you in the western hilly portion of Lapeer Cnty? Always liked that area. My oldest sister lived there circa late 60's Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Snow began here about 4:30 per the airport unit but I'm not up for another 6 hrs with my current schedule. Had some decent rates about 30 mins ago and it looked like a full-fledged storm, other than green grass blades poking thru. Most everything besides pavement has a slushy 1/2" or so. Just enough to look very wintry. If I was pressed to estimate, I'd say we've had 1" but with 33F temp it's melting from beneath as fast as it falls so we won't see much depth. Perfect way to begin the season. You know winter's ready to do it's thing but without the clean-up. Don't mind scoring my first winter headline either, tho this one time it may have overkill. GRR leaning on a slippery spots and 1st snow of the season. Idk, I'm in town with notorious UHI, especially after torch days so there may indeed have been a period of slickness out in the county? Who knows but last November's storm on Vet's Day was also the first snow and was really bad, causing serious crashes on I-94 and warranted upgrading to a Warning (8-14" in Jackson Cnty!) but they never did. Maybe they're trying to make amends. You are right. Looking outside, I'd say an inch is a safe bet. We will receive a couple of inches, which is great timing right b4 thanksgiving. Great start to this upcoming Winter season for sure. It took them long enough to post this headline. I was thinking to myself last nite that by the 4am package this morning, there will be a advisory in for us and bam..it happened. Hopefully this Winter they will be more responsible in terms of posting headlines accurately and not irresponsibly. If some of the employees at NOAA were working for me that were making mistakes and posting inaccurate headlines (such as "WWA instead of a WSW" when 8-14 inches is forecasted), I'd fired them in a heartbeat. Unacceptable, period! Today, they did a good job w the headline. Anyway..enjoy todays snow amigo. Great day to order pizza! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Still a complete snoozefest here on models. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: If you meant Alpena perhaps the bolded happens. Gaylord has 8.2" on the season. No way DTW records anything close to that from this. Yes, all the major reporting sites up north are below avg to date, and non-snowbelt cities have had scant snowfall. Thankfully tho, it's not like Nov 2011 when Marshall was indeed ahead of Gaylord which was a very bad omen for the winter. NMI can catch-up quickly so at this point it's not too concerning. So far this winter season the total reported snow fall in northern lower Michigan is Alpena 1" Houghton Lake 1" Gaylord 8.2" Traverse City T West Branch T Petoskey 3.6" in western Michigan Grand Rapids .2" Lansing and Muskegon T. At this time Detroit has reported 0.34" of precipitation today we will have to see how much if any of that it reported as snow fall. Looks like Niko has a inch or more. So we shall see. Of course most locations up north will get more snow then all of SE Michigan in the coming weeks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 I think that today's 12z Euro run would put the idea to rest that the slow start to the snow season up in N MI isn't a bad omen...LOL 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 - I have a good feeling December this year will be awesome! - Take a look...... 1 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 one thing so far this year that I have noticed is every storm that has rolled through Minneapolis and on North and now Mich is the forecasted snow totals have been accurate or too low instead of slashing totals downward as events start. Storms don't seem to be losing steam as the head throigh the lakes for a change! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Euro has 1.5-2" of rain for Omaha/Lincoln through Wednesday. GFS is more like 0.25". We could really use that Euro soaker. 1 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 The sun has now broken out. I recorded a total of 0.03" of rain fall. I call it rain fall as I did not see any snow mixed in here. At this time with the sun shinning from the SW it 39 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 None of the snowfall stuck here in kzoo and it unfortunately reminds me of the many snowfall busts the south sees (to be fair this system kept shifting south/east of here as it got closer). Still waiting for first snowfall greater than an inch; but hopeful that next weekend and December delivers 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Niko said: Still plenty of moisture to work w here..... Attm, snow, w temps at 32F. Its a "Winter Wonderland" outside! It has been snowing all day. Very impressive storm. This really has matured and will be a great 1st storm from SEMI on up thru Canada. Just a bit too late for here. Glad for you guys up there. When I was living there it was the opposite. SWMI always did better. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Tom said: I think that today's 12z Euro run would put the idea to rest that the slow start to the snow season up in N MI isn't a bad omen...LOL I know it's just one run 7 days out...but if that tracks as shown I May be in the "hurl zone"...uggh! @ that track 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Local mets and NWS saying 1-3" Mon nite through my area with minor tree damage due to the decent winds. Thermals are gonna be close so it should be interesting to see how this pans out. Bring it! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 00z HRRR showing 4” for Iowa city now. And it’s not even through the storm 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 GEM looks like the euro for next weekends potential storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 3 hours ago, bud2380 said: 00z HRRR showing 4” for Iowa city now. And it’s not even through the storm Cold air seems to hang on better than expected. Would be good for here too. Hoping for better temps than today's event but not too thrilled about mid-day timing. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 46 minutes ago, Money said: GEM looks like the euro for next weekends potential storm That 12z run Tom posted the map for was insane (not for mby) for NMI. Not that anything like that will happen, but fun to see just the same. As it was, looked like a few backside inches around here-totally climo unfortunately. Even so, it's a bit better than I originally thought with the SLP basically running on top of me. I'm feeling better about this Tuesday's deal tbh. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Local NWS is not thinking snow this far south Tuesday, but NOAA folks showing me some map love today: 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 DVN saying around an inch along I-80, 2-3” North of Highway 30...looks like I am in the right spot. We shall see.. 3 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Happy Monday! I can't believe it is Thanksgiving week and the beginning of the Holiday season. It's going to look and feel a whole lot different this season with everything going on around the country. Is the weather also following the same theme?? It certainly feels that way. Hope all those who need the moisture score big this week from what appears to be our 1st "CO Low" that will BOWL its way through our Sub in a west/east fashion. I don't think we have seen a storm track like this since Spring of last year or the year prior. In any event, get ready to track a couple more storms as we finish off met Autumn. 00z Euro... Could we finish off with a Bang??? There is more model data indicating that we may have ourselves a strong system to track late in the month. Last night's 00z Euro took a track a bit farther NW this run...those who are initially on the warm side, benefit from wrap-around snows. These features are to far out to pin point now but I'm digging the potential for this storm. Let's see how this all shakes out. 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Taking a look at the LR pattern as we head into December, one thing is certain, there will NOT be a pesky SER that we will have to deal with. Instead, a more favorable pattern is poised to set up shop with an oscillating EPO/+PNA and the all important high lat blocking we have been missing of late. All the models are jumping on the idea of a Greenland Block and now what appears to be a neutral AO. IMHO, earlier this season I felt that the climate models would "miss" the blocking this season. I just felt it in my gut that this would be the year the good ol' Greenland Block would rock. I'm very confident now that in December it will pop and may lock for a period of time. Based on the trends I'm seeing in the Strat, we are in good hands to see some action across the eastern Sub. 00z EPS looking mighty wintry for many of us in the extended! The idea of Winter making an appearance down in the lower 48 around the 5th is looking good. Trends are our friends??? CFSv2 daily runs going away with the western NAMER trough and replacing it with a ridge and signs of weakness over the Eastern CONUS. Boy, that Scandinavian Block looks impressive. Things are looking promising my friends! What about storms??? Well, I'm expecting a wave train of systems to open up December and I'd say around the Week of the 13th in December, Winter will be in Full Force. I'll end this post with the 00z EPS 5-day 500mb mean map...that's a pretty looking map if you like a pattern that favors coast-to-coast action. I don't think we (eastern Sub members) will have to deal with warm NW cutters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Here at my house I recorded 0.05" of cold rain yesterday. Over at Detroit they had a record snow fall for the date of 1.9" At this time it is cloudy and 37 here at my house and the latest report was 39 out at the airport. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 We are now in late November and the water temperature of the great lakes is still rather warm for this time of year. If there should unusual strong push of cold air in early December (even mid to late December) there would be a set up for some very heavy lake effect snow events. We shall see. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 DMX going with a quick 2-3" tonight but melting tomorrow with rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 12z HRRR 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 So the Euro and CMC both show a big storm for this next weekend but GFS shows nothing at all. DMX siding with the GFS and saying it will be quiet. Hmmm..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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