Jump to content

November 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Just now, Tom said:

Actually, I did some digging and it was Dec '10...here's a snow map from that period...I remember flying over IA in early Dec on a clear sunny day where I clearly saw the ground go from brown grass to white gold.  Gosh, time flies by way to fast!

 

nsm_depth_2010120605_National.jpg

Ok, yeah I did see that earlier swath from some clipper that whiffed us south. 10-11 didn't treat SWMI too well aside from some decent NNW LES events and ofc GHD-1. Otherwise we got grazed or missed by numerous systems that winter.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, james1976 said:

GFS with a 974 low next Tuesday just east of the GL

Post map if you can.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Niko said:

Post map if you can.

Kinda backs into the east side of the Mitt, missing me completely. Need this to come back west half a state or so.

20201124 12z GFS h168 Surf.png

  • Popcorn 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Kinda backs into the east side of the Mitt, missing me completely. Need this to come back west half a state or so.

20201124 12z GFS h168 Surf.png

Misses my area as well, except for some light snow & wind, but the brunt stays east of my locale also. Still plenty of time for any changes.

 

  • Popcorn 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Nothing for November but rain has picked up running above average for the month.

I should get a nice soaker tomorrow as temps rise into the 50s, thanks to a WF.  Looking forward to a rainstorm and tbh, I've always liked rainy days in November.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z EPS members took a BIG step forward for the GL's/MW/OHV region...need this trend to continue.  Many members bomb out this storm in the eastern GL's into a closed upper low and spins for days.  These are the type of systems that can deliver the goods, esp the back-end wrap around snows and LES.  Warm GL's and cold temps could create an almost perfect scenario for @Jaster and crew in MI.

 

Edit: Another important note, all the models continue to see the growing Greenland Block and -AO/+PNA.  Giddy up!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Excited 1
  • Popcorn 1
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

PER NOAA:      Here we go MI Peeps!

After what looks like a quiet weekend, potential winter storm
setting up for early next week, as strong storm system comes out of
the Gulf of Alaska, with what looks to be eventual phasing with the
Four Corners energy. There looks to be unanimous consent, it is just
when and where phasing occurs (eastern Plains vs Appalachians)
leading to longwave trough encompassing the eastern half/third of
North America. Need-less-to-say, 12z EURO is very aggressive with
the impact to southeast Michigan. The 00z Euro ensemble members (~50
percent) were also fairly convincing with significant amount of
measurable QPF centered around 00z DEC 1. Still, we are talking Days
6-7 and will remain conservative with the standard/climo 30 pop for
now.
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Excited 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Jaster, Niko The Euro just came back west for ya.

1606759200-NAuHPiQ2zZQ.png

I just hope the trends continue bud. Wish you were involved in this storm as well.

  • Like 3

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The rain part of this system kinda crapped out for my area.  Much of the real rain is passing southeast today and the models keep sagging the Wednesday deformation zone south and weakening it.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forecasters monitoring the potential for a blockbuster storm to take shape:

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/StrongerSlower24Nov11a.jpg?w=632

or

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/WeakerFaster24Nov11a.jpg?w=632

Stay tuned to those who are in the path of this monster storm!

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1
  • Sad 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The rain part of this system kinda crapped out for my area.  Much of the real rain is passing southeast today and the models keep sagging the Wednesday deformation zone south and weakening it.

Same here. We've had mist/drizzle most of the day. It was a bit heavier overnight so we're at .34" for the day, but nowhere near the 1-1.5" of rain that was being shown.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

GFS has trended much farther west today.

18z

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

Wraps rain into it as did the Euro. Would be a little bit like Nov 1950 super-storm in that regard.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Tom said:

12z EPS members took a BIG step forward for the GL's/MW/OHV region...need this trend to continue.  Many members bomb out this storm in the eastern GL's into a closed upper low and spins for days.  These are the type of systems that can deliver the goods, esp the back-end wrap around snows and LES.  Warm GL's and cold temps could create an almost perfect scenario for @Jaster and crew in MI.

 

Edit: Another important note, all the models continue to see the growing Greenland Block and -AO/+PNA.  Giddy up!

Dude! Don't pump me up just to get let down, lol. You know these phase bombs are super finicky and thus truly rare for a reason.  GFS being late to see the potential reminds me of that autumn merge bomb a year or two ago. Euro & GEM had it days before but GRR rode the GFS which didn't see it til the last minute. The 980 mb SLP near the Sault that created massive waves on Superior. Could not find my maps on it tho I remember posting some.

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...bada Boom!

1.png

D*MN! that'd be sweet

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Attm, I am receiving a mix bag of snow and rain. Temp at 34F. Very raw evening. Pavement is wet and temps will remain above freezing overnite, so no icing will be occurring. As a matter of fact, temps will even start rising a bit tanite and reach the upper 30s by dawn.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Toms pl gets crushed w hvy snows! Also, MI members that live on the western part of the state gets inundated w snow as well. Looks like rain for my area. Nice phase!

Tbh..I wouldnt mind seeing that low go through, or even east of the Cleveland Metro area. That would be an ideal track. Would benefit my area for that matter.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_11/Capture.thumb.PNG.dc849517c3ae4100a34e9bc045188b1a.PNG

  • Like 3
  • Snow 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Toms pl gets crushed w hvy snows! Also, MI members that live on the western part of the state gets inundated w snow as well. Looks like rain for my area. Nice phase!

Tbh..I wouldnt mind seeing that low go through, or even east of the Cleveland Metro area. That would be an ideal track. Would benefit my area for that matter.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_11/Capture.thumb.PNG.dc849517c3ae4100a34e9bc045188b1a.PNG

If the SLP gets aligned just right you will be talking some nice LES going on downwind off the lake. Good luck guys! 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Same here. We've had mist/drizzle most of the day. It was a bit heavier overnight so we're at .34" for the day, but nowhere near the 1-1.5" of rain that was being shown.

Yeah this turned out to be another in a long line of duds this year... I was hoping that we would see some appreciable rainfall from this system, however we likely won't even reach a half inch for the storm total. Things were looking up when we got the unexpected burst of snow yesterday morning, but after that everything unraveled once again. 

Looks like all the rain or possible rain/snow mix is going to miss us well to the south tonight... oh well, no big loss as we usually don't get decent storms around here in November anyway. 

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Yeah this turned out to be another dud... I was hoping that we would see more rainfall from this system but we won't even see a half inch total. Looks like all the rain or possible rain/snow mix is going to miss us well to the south tonight... oh well, no big loss as we usually don't get decent storms around here in November anyway. 

I thought after the cold rain here today that storms would be off the table tonight on my end but I whiffed pretty badly on that. Lol.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Tom said:

Actually, I did some digging and it was Dec '10...here's a snow map from that period...I remember flying over IA in early Dec on a clear sunny day where I clearly saw the ground go from brown grass to white gold.  Gosh, time flies by way to fast!

 

nsm_depth_2010120605_National.jpg

December ’10 was pretty good here for snow with 11” total. The largest snowfall of that month was a well timed 6.5” on Christmas Eve day!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...