Niko Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Only need that to go about 600 miles West and I'm in play! Even further west on 0z run. Has snow in IA 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Tom said: Was thinking the same yesterday and today...should be a great CO Low! I may need to retract one part from my earlier post. If this were winter and we had enough cold air, we'd be in the midst of a pretty sizeable storm right now, with a potential blockbuster looming on the horizon. #1978stuff! 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Niko said: GEM inching west on it's last 3 runs. I like that. 0z Euro is another big run, but not quite as good for the Mitt. I notice both it and the GFS depict the best snowfall SW of the SLP where the coldest air gets wrapped in. Again, this was seen in another early season bomb back in Nov 1950. And, like that epic storm, the best snows are being depicted down in Indiana and/or Ohio. 3 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 7 hours ago, Sparky said: December ’10 was pretty good here for snow with 11” total. The largest snowfall of that month was a well timed 6.5” on Christmas Eve day! I can't remember what year it was, but there was a Christmas Eve storm that dumped some very high ratio snows (20:1+) ratio snow that was timed perfectly. The NW burbs got hammered with 10" of snow and I think ORD received around 6" or so. Let's hope for some kind of repeat this year! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Happy Thanksgiving Eve! Looks like ORD picked up 0.7" of snow yesterday and the area received its 1st widespread accumulating snowfall of the season. Is more on the horizon??? Boy, there are some eye candy model runs showing up and some blockbuster snow maps. None moreso than last nights 00z Euro op...like @jaster220 mentioned, the models are flashing some fascinating individual model runs. It's been decades since our region has seen a storm system as being depicted that bombs out and blocks up which spins for days. In recent years, its always been a "tease" and just never worked out or the storm shifted NW. Could we "flip the script" for 2020???? Analyzing the data farther, nearly every global model is honing in on a monster closed upper low centered near the Lower Lakes/OHV region. Big uptick in the snow mean across this region. Things are looking up! Boy, doesn't this 500mb map resemble 2 fiery eyes, a nose and a mouth?? I see you...quiet the way to open up December... 4 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Here at my house I had .8" of snow fall. There was a total of 0.47" in the rain gauge. Late yesterday afternoon there was a period of very large snow fakes. It was after that snow fall that I took the measurement. This morning of course the snow is all but gone (there is still snow in spots) and the temperature is now up to 41 here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Fired up a December thread... https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/5990-december-2020-observations-and-discussion/&tab=comments#comment-652641 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Attm, its a mild 41F under some drizzle and mist. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Per NOAA: Potential for a potent winter system early next week when a northern stream wave diving out of the Gulf of Alaska phases with a southern stream wave drifting out of the Four Corners region. Latest Euro comes into better agreement with the GFS with phasing more over the Appalachians. Forecast offers a significant amount of QPF over the region while wrapping around plenty of cold air. It will be something to keep an eye on with still plenty of time to hash out details. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 It’s nice to finally have a defo band sitting right overhead. If it would be snow it would be ripping! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Explosive bomb! Somebody will get slammed really hard by this one. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 GRR mentioned a big change is that the models are really backing off on cold air with the next complex system. Which would kill any chance of big LE or LEH snow for Michigan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Radar was showing red overhead, but it’s not as heavy as it appears with mainly moderate rainfall rates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Just now, Sparky said: Radar was showing red overhead, but it’s not as heavy as it appears with mainly moderate rainfall rates. It could have been frozen precip that the radar was picking up on farther up in the atmosphere. I've experienced this many times before. I was also thinking the same thing earlier this morning when I took a gander at the radar loop showing a healthy defo band. An impressive system to see cycle through in the future. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Sparky said: It’s nice to finally have a defo band sitting right overhead. If it would be snow it would be ripping! I was thinking the same thing. It would have been a glorious sight. It's rare the pieces come together just right in this part of the country though. Oh well, I'm enjoying the rain nonetheless. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: GRR mentioned a big change is that the models are really backing off on cold air with the next complex system. Which would kill any chance of big LE or LEH snow for Michigan. Hoping this doesn’t happen - cold air not being in place with a nice system is all too familiar for me! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 GFS continues to be an outlier with the next system, and all over the place. I wouldn't put much stock in it right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Canadian on the 30th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Niko said: Explosive bomb! Somebody will get slammed really hard by this one. Can't remember the last time I saw a 500 mb map so deep in this region. Wow! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Missed again with most of the precipitation with this system. The drum beat of drought marches on. Very little to nothing in the extended. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, bud2380 said: GEM has indeed pulled westward just enough to what I consider the ideal position for the Mitt. It also keeps the SLP trekking north like the earlier Euro runs. Much prefer that over it stalling out overhead and spinning on top of me. It is pretty stingy with the main snow swath and I'm wondering if that's a blip or indication of a lack of good snow growth. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Tom said: It could have been frozen precip that the radar was picking up on farther up in the atmosphere. I've experienced this many times before. I was also thinking the same thing earlier this morning when I took a gander at the radar loop showing a healthy defo band. An impressive system to see cycle through in the future. I thought the same thing and earlier was looking very closely for a few half melted flakes and thought I saw a few, but probably imagined it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 43 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Can't remember the last time I saw a 500 mb map so deep in this region. Wow! Me neither! Blizzard1978 perhaps in the makings????? Bud, someone is in for alllotttaaaa snow! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 12z Ukie also digging further south from the 00z run. The 00z run actually threw some snow all the way back into Iowa, but that won't happen on this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 As someone posted earlier, radar shows "heavy" precip right over Cedar Rapids, but it's just a solid light to moderate rain. Still, some models had trended toward keeping the defo zone mostly south of CR, so it's nice to see it lift far enough north to easily boost us over an inch of precip for the entire event. A month later, CR might be getting several inches of snow from this. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Ukie is a total dud for snow this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 It appears Iowa will have to wait until at least mid December for any real winter storm action. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Ukie no Likey 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: It appears Iowa will have to wait until at least mid December for any real winter storm action. Hang on 3 or 4 more days and let the models process the blocking and pattern change that's on deck. This always gives them fits, keep an eye out for energy to dive in to the western US around the 8th or so. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 7 hours ago, Stacsh said: GRR mentioned a big change is that the models are really backing off on cold air with the next complex system. Which would kill any chance of big LE or LEH snow for Michigan. Yep. Horrible trends overnight. Without cold air, this will be DOA and the latest in sad model teases. 5 hours ago, Niko said: Me neither! Blizzard1978 perhaps in the makings????? Bud, someone is in for alllotttaaaa snow! Gotta have cold air for that to happen amigo. Not gonna happen with the same marginal cold air we've just seen with our 2 snows. TBH, not looking good attm. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 18 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Yep. Horrible trends overnight. Without cold air, this will be DOA and the latest is sad model teases. Gotta have cold air for that to happen amigo. Not gonna happen with the same marginal cold air we've just seen with our 2 snows. TBH, not looking good attm. I agree., but don't forget, its days away...hopefully it can wrap around on some cold air. We will see what happens. By tomorrow or Friday, is when to really start paying more attn to models. In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the ride. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, GDR said: Ukie no Likey Welp, 12z Ukie went dudsville on us. Cold won't come down and play. While some of the model maps of a bomb have been 1950 like, this has not been an historic cold November like that one was. The extreme opposite actually and thus have to question such a system even being realistic. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Attm, its raining w temps in the 40s. Very raw, dreary, chilly late November day. Luv it! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 I'll take the latest GEM for 100 Ken! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Euro holds steady. Blasts Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. Even Chicago gets hit pretty hard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Euro holds steady. Blasts Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. Even Chicago gets hit pretty hard. Just an FYI, we have a December thread... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 0.70" of rain this morning from the defo band, 1.30" precip total for the event. 3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Looks like light rain has been persistent in mby. If I had to guess, I would say that about .25" has fallen. More heavier rain is on the way for later tanite, b4 it finally ends and clears the area. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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