November 2020 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

Now we're getting back to regularly scheduled weather business in the weather models again. Anytime they go that suspiciously "dead", usually best to dismiss them for 36-48 hours and reboot.

[james1976]

CMC has snow for Nebraska. Rain elsewhere.

Over a week out yet

[Niko]

On 11/13/2020 at 12:41 AM, jaster220 said:

Hopefully buried, haha!

Back in Dec of 2000, snow depths peaked during the holidays. Looking at records for nearby cities just to my east Albion reached 25" and a bit north Charlotte hit an incredible 28" OTG during the week leading up to New Years. It must have been a winter wonderland that year around here. Wish I could've been here to experience it. I miss having deep snow (12+) OTG. That's the biggest goal I have right now for the winter. Feb '18 briefly touched a foot for 2 days. Would be nice to sustain some good depths like back in 2014 & 2015.

I agree. Nothing like having a deep snowcover during the holidays, especially on Christmas Day!

Tbh: I have a good feeling about this Winter though.

[Niko]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Coldest day by far of this autumn season. 32F or below for 14 hrs and scored our first morning in the teens here.

 

Congrats on your the coldest temp thus far.....It was mighty chilly here as well, although, no teens were reported here in mby, temps did managed to dip into the lower 20s (came close to hitting the teens, but no cigar) and it sure felt like December outside, as I was running a few errands.

[Niko]

Attm, it is 34F under sunny skies. Its beautiful, w a crisp air. Wcf in the 20s.

[Niko]

Next week features some colder air coming after Sundays rainstorm/wind event. Highs most likely remaining in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s for both Mon and Tues.

[Niko]

Here we go again....another Tropical System.....

This image below, taken on Thursday afternoon, Nov. 12, 2020, shows Tropical Storm Theta spinning over the eastern Atlantic. If you look closely, Portugal appears near the upper right and Africa appears on the far right.

 

[Niko]

51 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Now we're getting back to regularly scheduled weather business in the weather models again. Anytime they go that suspiciously "dead", usually best to dismiss them for 36-48 hours and reboot.

Get your shovel/s ready. This upcoming Winter looks better for ya!

[OKwx2k4]

49 minutes ago, Niko said:

Get your shovel/s ready. This upcoming Winter looks better for ya!

I think so! May be one of the best in terms of weather I have ever seen. I've been calling for a classic since August and still hold that the "hat tip" at the end of July was as true and reliable of a sign as I have ever read about or studied in BIG years.

[james1976]

Looks like a low tracks SE of Iowa next Sunday-Monday but can't see any precip maps on Tropical Tidbits.

[Niko]

High Wind Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1035 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-142200-
/O.CON.KDTX.HW.A.0002.201115T1400Z-201116T0100Z/
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw,
Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,
Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
1035 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...High confidence continues to exist
  regarding gust potential ranging between 45-50 mph. Sporadic
  gust potential up to 60 mph will be possible with this wind
  event.

This seems to be shaping up to be a big 'Wind event."

[bud2380]

Euro massive rain storm next weekend. Would be sad to ruin such a nice setup. But not enough cold air in place 

[jaster220]

@Niko

Massive area of wind headlines now on the CONUS map. Be surprised if nobody in the Mitt outside of lake Michigan shoreline counties gets upgraded as this explodes. Today's 12z NAM remained on the colder end of guidance. Has flakes flying here for 14 hrs beginning about 2 pm Sunday. Waiting to see what SR models think about snow/mix this far south.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Niko said:

High Wind Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1035 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-142200-
/O.CON.KDTX.HW.A.0002.201115T1400Z-201116T0100Z/
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw,
Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,
Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
1035 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...High confidence continues to exist
  regarding gust potential ranging between 45-50 mph. Sporadic
  gust potential up to 60 mph will be possible with this wind
  event.

This seems to be shaping up to be a big 'Wind event."

This could go big..

DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

- Strong Storm System to Move Through the Region Tonight/Sunday

The main story in the next 7 days is very much front loaded in the
7 day forecast in the tonight and Sunday forecast periods. A
strong low is forecast to develop this evening and sweep northeast
into the Great Lakes tonight. Models have remained consistent in
showing a 980mb low give or take about 5mb`s either way at 18z on
Sunday near Northeast Lake Superior. Both the operational GFS and
ECMWF are forecasting a deep low, with both being in the 970`s
mb`s. This is supported by both ensemble means of the models. The
GFS in fact has every member it appears in the 970`s, with a few
even reaching the 960`s. Feel the 960`s are out of the question,
but the bottom line is we are looking at a rapidly deepening low
the next 22 hours.

[james1976]

18z GFS continues with mostly rain events throughout the run

[Clinton]

Tornado watch until midnight and a severe thunderstorm watch until 7. Crazy weather for November.

[Clinton]

I have been getting torrential rain now for the last hour with some small hail mixed in, one of the best lightning shows I've seen all year this is going to be a impressive storm. Jaster and Nico need to batten down it's going to get windy up there.

[OKwx2k4]

Good lines of storms making their way through the Ozarks tonight.

[jcwxguy]

Just a tad windy

 

 

[Niko]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

I have been getting torrential rain now for the last hour with some small hail mixed in, one of the best lightning shows I've seen all year this is going to be a impressive storm. Jaster and Nico need to batten down it's going to get windy up there.

You bet bud.....I will have winds gusting close to near 55mph+.

[Clinton]

I saw a report that Osage Beach at Lake of the Ozarks we hit by a tornado tonight. Looks like it did some damage.

[Hawkeye]

Today's rain event was a bust here... only 0.05".

[james1976]

0z gfs boredom central for mid-long range

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I saw a report that Osage Beach at Lake of the Ozarks we hit by a tornado tonight. Looks like it did some damage.

Yeah. Got pretty bumpy up there.

Was pretty windy here but nothing major.

Its a great "tell" for a cold wave in the future.

[westMJim]

The first batch of rain came thru and dripped 0.24" of rain here. At this time it is cloudy and 43 here.

[jaster220]

First night it has actually felt "stormy" after work. Surprised how breezy it was, could feel the car getting pushed a bit on the x-way and headlines haven't even begun yet. Grid had 44F and rising for today, but we remained in the 30's until 8 pm before rising into the low 40's. Looking at this (classic) surface map, it reminds me of the bliz of '99 with it's snow way, way east of the SLP and how the warmth never got pulled north with that either. Not spoken of as a favored analog, but iirc 98-99 was indeed a 1st year Nina on the heels of the Mega-Nino.

Baro at 29.67" and falling..

 

[jaster220]

This is for the northern end my NWS region. Winter is inching ever closer..

Quote

Snow is still in the forecast with Wet Bulb Zero heights trending
to below 1500ft for Sunday afternoon and evening. We should see
snow mixing in and even changing over across Central Lower
Michigan. Could see an inch or two of snow in the afternoon and
evening up on the high ground along U.S. 10 from Baldwin east to Reed
City and Evart and points north. At this point, not expecting too
much of an impact. There could be a few slick spots after dark up
that way as temperatures will fall below freeze first there.

 

[jaster220]

16 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@Niko

Massive area of wind headlines now on the CONUS map. Be surprised if nobody in the Mitt outside of lake Michigan shoreline counties gets upgraded as this explodes. Today's 12z NAM remained on the colder end of guidance. Has flakes flying here for 14 hrs beginning about 2 pm Sunday. Waiting to see what SR models think about snow/mix this far south.

Starting to hear gusts roaring thru the trees occasionally now.

15/0z GFS has come in a bit colder on the backside again, looking stout Sunday 18z @ 975 mb

Similar location to the storm that sank the SS Fitzgerald (notice what I did to the map?? )

 

[jaster220]

NAM, and other SR models @ 0z are showing a transition to snow sometime Sunday afternoon 2-4 pm or so. Then they have flakes flying around my county (on/off) for 6+ hours.

ARW2 & NMM for example:

 

[jaster220]

For NMI, this won't be the beast bliz that Nov '89 was when Pellston in the far northern tip ended up with 24" OTG, but it will be just the hint I was hoping for to make hunters basically miserable and hunkering down. Tbh, this is the perfect compromise for the 11-17-13 storm that had such strength but zero cold air nor any snow.

 

[Minny_Weather]

Currently getting accumulating light snow, enough to blow around. 24.6°F.

[westMJim]

I recorded 0.49" of rain all overnight. At this time it is cloudy and while while somewhat windy it is not all that bad yet. The temperature is now up to 53.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Currently getting accumulating light snow, enough to blow around. 24.6°F.

It's like every time I read a post of yours, it's either snowing or temps are cold!  The pattern setting up for the norther tier looks golden for Barney rampage....and I'm sure your stoked about this...enjoy!

[jaster220]

16 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@Niko

Massive area of wind headlines now on the CONUS map. Be surprised if nobody in the Mitt outside of lake Michigan shoreline counties gets upgraded as this explodes. Today's 12z NAM remained on the colder end of guidance. Has flakes flying here for 14 hrs beginning about 2 pm Sunday. Waiting to see what SR models think about snow/mix this far south.

Upgrade!

Quote

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

Will be upgrading the Wind Advisory inland away from Lake Michigan
to a High Wind Warning. BUFKIT overviews from latest model runs
are concerning, which indicate 50-55 knots in the mixed layer
between 2,000ft and 5,000ft. Should we tap into these winds this
afternoon which seems probable, damaging wind gusts can be
expected. All of the operational models have a 980mb low near the
Sault Ste Marie at 18z today which is quite deep. It deepens
further into the 970s as it races into Ontario. Most ensemble
members actually of both the GFS and the ECWMF show the potential
for the low to be in the 970s even at 18z. The pressure gradient
across our area this afternoon between the low and a high in the
Southern Plains around 1027mb will be significant.

There will be a 6-12 hour period of damaging wind gust potential
from the late morning hours into the evening in all areas. Will
therefore be upgrading. The NPWGRR will be out in the next few
minutes. Wind gusts to around 60 mph possible in all areas with
power outages becoming more likely and more widespread is the main
message.

&&

 

[jaster220]

Awoke to several rumbles of thunder which GRR had mostly taken off the table in yesterday's AFD. Some briefly gusty winds too, but now we are in the lull they spoke of prior to CF passage and the CAA ramp-up. Baro @ 29.27" and dropping.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Awoke to several rumbles of thunder which GRR had mostly taken off the table in yesterday's AFD. Some briefly gusty winds too, but now we are in the lull they spoke of prior to CF passage and the CAA ramp-up. Baro @ 29.27" and dropping.

You guys will be under the "belly of the beast" soon enough...I remember last year we had a similar storm as such that sparked wind advisories/warnings throughout the GL's region.  Hope we can see these beasts develop farther south with more blocking near Greenland.

[Minny_Weather]

31 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's like every time I read a post of yours, it's either snowing or temps are cold!  The pattern setting up for the norther tier looks golden for Barney rampage....and I'm sure your stoked about this...enjoy!

To be fair, I only post when it's snowing or temps are cold lol

[Niko]

Windy is the theme of the day today. I am getting sustain winds at 25mph w gusts as high as 45. They will get a lot stronger as the afternoon wears on w winds speeds topping off as high as 65mph.  Temps will be dropping as well throughout the course of the day.

[Niko]

36 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Upgrade!

 

Yes sir..."High Wind Warning" will definitely do some damage today. I have all of my garbage bins inside and all other stuff secured.

Note:  Flakes are possible and some could be heavy for a time. We will see how that plays out. My forecast is calling for snowshowers in the pm hour as temps tumble through the 30s and 20s.

[Niko]

Attm, a balmy 51F under cloudy skies and strong winds.