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Attm, 33F w cloudy skies.  This persistent NW wind has been tapping into Lake Michigan moisture and keeping pesky snowshowers around, until the wind eases and shifts more westerly.  It will be frigid tanite as temps fall into the teens here in mby. In the city of Detroit, mainly 20s outta do it.

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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Crazy to think that just a week ago we were in the 70's all week! This turned out to be quite the ice storm to say the least. Ice accretion is around .5-.75" and trees are breaking like match sticks.

Came to West Virginia last week and have been here since. I’ve been lucky to have a lot of time off with Covid. It’s easily the most beautiful place I’ve ever been. Too bad the storm wiped most of the

1.41” of rain/freezing rain here so far. Crazy how much of a difference one or maybe two degrees make.  looking at my weather station, the temperature was between 31.6-32.2 all night long while we’v

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Attm, 33F w cloudy skies.  This persistent NW wind has been tapping into Lake Michigan moisture and keeping pesky snowshowers around, until the wind eases and shifts more westerly.  It will be frigid tanite as temps fall into the teens here in mby. In the city of Detroit, mainly 20s outta do it.

Noticed a dusting of mix in the shade of my garage this afternoon. Otherwise sunny pm here.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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PHX just did it again...we broke a daily record with a high of 92F and also extended the latest 90F day ever by one day...wash, rinse and repeat!  Looking forward to the mid 70’s this weekend.

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21 minutes ago, Tom said:

PHX just did it again...we broke a daily record with a high of 92F and also extended the latest 90F day ever by one day...wash, rinse and repeat!  Looking forward to the mid 70’s this weekend.

La Niña really rearing its head

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Got down to 9*F this morning. We just had a warm fropa so up temps go!

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Why do I have a low of 28F in my grid? Already been down to 22F and I don't see anything stopping the plummet. 🤔

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Wait. A. Minute!  I thought the GFS was waaayyy north of the Euro/Ukie for this weekend's "slushy" event?? Pencil me confused..

18/0z @h120

 

20201118 0z GFS h120 Surf.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Surprisingly even the warm ICON has snow here Sunday morn. Euro is mixy with a touch of snow for Niko's area. Can this trend cold enough to be legit? With recent pre-Turkey Day storms a bad sign, kinda torn on what to pull for tbh.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Alrighty then, time for holiday lights to go up!

 

 

20201118 0z GFS h126 KCH Snowfall.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Biggest November snows mby. Before '08 it was someone else's backyard.

  1.  12.5"  11/21/15
  2.   8.5"   11/29/11
  3.   7.0"    11/11/19
  4.   4.5"   11/26/18
  5.   2.0"    11/10 & 11/15/18

 

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Good morning from the warmest region in the nation!  Could we do it again today...3-peat???  Models are suggesting another 90F day today for the PHX metro which would set 2 new records.  I think we do it as each day of this week we surpassed our predicted highs by a couple of degrees.

Meantime, the 00z EPS continues to trend S with the late weekend system...looks like it will be mostly a rainer for most of you in the MW/GL's...

2.png

 

 

On the flip side, looking ahead towards Thanksgiving week, could there be a Thanksgiving winter storm brewing for the MW/GL's???  I'm seeing very interesting trends off the models as both the EPS/GEFS are picking up on more blocking across Canada...the good Ol' Hudson Bay block...

 

1.png

 

3.png

 

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Warm air in places that we don't want warm air. Don't expect any significant pattern change for the foreseeable future.

Euro 2.png

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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AO and NAO remain positive. Polar air is actually at the pole.

 

AO.png

NAO.png

MJO.gif

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Surprisingly even the warm ICON has snow here Sunday morn. Euro is mixy with a touch of snow for Niko's area. Can this trend cold enough to be legit? With recent pre-Turkey Day storms a bad sign, kinda torn on what to pull for tbh.

My grid has been going colder and colder w the weekend system.......

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Alrighty then, time for holiday lights to go up!

 

 

20201118 0z GFS h126 KCH Snowfall.png

Wut?  Ok then, I guess timing is right about perfect and acceptable now to get a snowstorm b4 Thanksgiving.......

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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This is what I saw on Monday afternoon from the house window.....thousands of blackbirds and maybe grackles as well, and I didn’t catch when they started flying across my view. At one point they had landed in the field right outside of the house.

Maybe this video won’t play because of size:( At least for myself it takes a coons age to load the 50 MB size.

Edited by Sparky
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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 17.7”

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Good morning from the warmest region in the nation!  Could we do it again today...3-peat???  Models are suggesting another 90F day today for the PHX metro which would set 2 new records.  I think we do it as each day of this week we surpassed our predicted highs by a couple of degrees.

Meantime, the 00z EPS continues to trend S with the late weekend system...looks like it will be mostly a rainer for most of you in the MW/GL's...

2.png

 

 

On the flip side, looking ahead towards Thanksgiving week, could there be a Thanksgiving winter storm brewing for the MW/GL's???  I'm seeing very interesting trends off the models as both the EPS/GEFS are picking up on more blocking across Canada...the good Ol' Hudson Bay block...

 

1.png

 

3.png

 

My office thinks we have a shot at flakes with this weekend's system somewhere in the region but then go on to say it will trend S and whiff us, lol. They mention the holiday event next week as well.

Quote


-- Next system Sunday rain and snow possible --

Our next system comes from the jet core associated with the
Pacific storm that I wrote about in my first paragraph. Being a
progressive upper air pattern, the polar jet comes back through
this area Friday with associated wind core of 130 knots passing
just north of TVC by midday. That pushes a cold front through this
area, but, due to the lack of mid level moisture, it will be dry.

Meanwhile, a more impressive system, currently over the west
Pacific, reaches the Bering Sea and norther Gulf of Alaska by
Friday. That in turn pushes a lead wave into the Pacific
Northwest by Saturday morning. That lead wave digs some and
causes the aforementioned Polar Jet, still over Michigan at that
point, to lift northward. So, our precipitation event on Sunday
is due to the right entrance region lift of that departing Polar
Jet. The track of the system and associated precipitation will
depend on just how this all plays out by then. A stronger lead
wave that digs more may cause more upstream ridging and bring more
of rain event to this area. A weaker and more progressive wave
would keep the system farther south, maybe allowing all the
precipitation to stay south of Michigan totally.

Over time (past 3 days) the ECMWF has slowly adjusted that system
south with time. The GFS has been much farther north than the
ECMWF with system but the 18/00z run of the GFS is more like the
ECMWF 24 hours ago. There is enough cold air so that the northern
edge of the precipitation would most likely be snow. Given the
setup, it would be a 3 to 6 inch sort of event in the area of the
heaviest snow. Both the ECMWF and GFS ensemble do show snow with
this system, even as far south as GRR. In fact about 1/2 the
members of the 18th/00z run of ECMWF give GRR at at least a 1/2
inch of snow and about 1/3 of the 50 members give GRR from 1 to 2
inches. Meanwhile the 18th/00z GFS has nearly 1/2 the members
giving GRR at least inches of snow. About 1/3 of those members
give GRR over 4 inches of snow from that system. My spin is the
system will likely track farther south than currently forecast.
We may see some snow from it but do not be surprised if it ends
up tracking south of this area and we get no precipitation at all.
This is a system we will have to continue to watch for possible
impacts.

-- Cool Monday into Tuesday, then warming again --

Our progressive upper air pattern will remain so, thus the next
Pacific system will likely do what the current one is doing. That
would mean cool weather Monday into Tuesday, then a warm up,
followed by another possible wet system mid to late next week. At
this point Thanksgiving may be in the time frame of our next
storm. The ECMWF ensembles have 80 percent of their members given
this area precipitation on Thanksgiving, the mean being around
0.30 inches. About 1/3 of those ensembles give GRR at least 3
inches of snow. So we will need to watch that system too.

That EPS qpf swath looks sweet! Are we finally seeing the winter pattern??  Yesterday I touted 98-99 analog, but kinda forgot our No. 1 analog of 07-08. These next 2 systems remind me of that winter when warmth surrounded perfectly timed cold connections to produce a very storm-filled winter. Let's see how this next 10 days plays out. Starting to get interesting here..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Proud to announce that Detroit yesterday received its first official measurable snow of the season...0.2."

 

'grats on beating mby! Though KBTL is perhaps closer to me then DTW is to Macomb, and they may have recorded a slight accumulation with the squalls back on the 1st. Need to peek at that possibility. Still, I record for here anyways and have only had a "T" officially 2X now. But, I think there's a pretty good shot going forward.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The big weekend system vanished.

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season snowfall: 23.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Heading for 73 tomorrow which would tie the record high. Upper 60s today. Normal high here now is 47. 

Enjoy the warmth!

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Proud to announce that Detroit yesterday received its first official measurable snow of the season...0.2."

 

As suspected, BC has indeed recorded a bit of snow this month, but they're almost 20 miles closer to Lake Michigan and makes a huge difference wrt LES events.

 

20201117 KBTL Snow to date.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The big weekend system vanished.

No it didn't, it just moved south of y'all Iowans.

 

20201118 0z Euro EPS 150 hr Rainfall.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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14 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

There she goes.  Shouldn't have surprised me.  This has been the theme for going on 7 months.  The drought continues to wear on here.

Yeah, it's kinda gone to weak sauce even over here..sigh. Our ponds are really really low tbh. Need a true autumn soaker type event and was hoping this was the one.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I was originally supposed to flirt with 60 today, but a substantial and unexpected cumulus deck is here which might keep me in the 40s today. Another day in the 40s tomorrow before I start seeing highs in the 30s again. Currently 38*F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Just took my garbage out to the curb and saw a BEE flying around the dead flowers of an old Aster bush in our front yard. 59.7 degrees already this morning.

And it's NOVEMBER 18th. Unbelievable!

Yeah, I drove to Minnesota the weekend before last (after 4 straight days in the 70s) and there were dead smashed bugs on my windshield when I got back. Hard to believe they're in Spring mode.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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34 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, it's kinda gone to weak sauce even over here..sigh. Our ponds are really really low tbh. Need a true autumn soaker type event and was hoping this was the one.

Most ponds around here have been dry for months.  Been a long time since I remember anything like this.  Hard to make up much moisture in the winter time.

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27 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Most ponds around here have been dry for months.  Been a long time since I remember anything like this.  Hard to make up much moisture in the winter time.

Over here we can actually make up hydro deficits during the winter. We're much more dependent on system moisture vs convection. There's a reason you're region is semi-arid and mine is forested. But, there has been a string of wet years around here and it seems to be trying to balance that out attm.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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18/12z ICON still brings the juice (GEPS is decent too fwiw) so maybe others will stop the S trend and come back a little. Iiuc, it has to do with if/when exactly a wave forms on the front. We've had this same scenario a couple times this year and it's trended better "last minute" so I'll have to allow for that potential I suppose.

 

20201018 12z h114 Total RN.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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29 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Over here we can actually make up hydro deficits during the winter. We're much more dependent on system moisture vs convection. There's a reason you're region is semi-arid and mine is forested. But, there has been a string of wet years around here and it seems to be trying to balance that out attm.

I average about 25 inches of precipitation a year at my location in Central Nebraska.  Last year we had over 40 inches and several big years before that.  As of now, we are maybe at 17 inches and only a couple inches since early July.

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z NAM has snow mixing in for mby on Sunday. Seems colder than the other models.

Same here. Snow mixes in late Sunday into Sunday nite as the low tracks further south. Check my post beneath ya! 👇

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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Per NOAA:

Models have been trending further south last two runs with the track
of the next wave which will now pass through central Indian and
Ohio.  Over running rain will spread into southeast Michigan late
Saturday night through Sunday night. Temp profile may be cold enough
to have some snow mix in late Sunday and Sunday night across the
north half of the CWA. Temperature look to be near normal for the
first half of next week with the next system to effect the area on
Tuesday.
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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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17 minutes ago, Tom said:

@FAR_Weather, have you heard of a place called “Pounds” in Fargo?  I’m watching Guy Fieri and he filmed a show there.  If you like guilty pleasures that’s the spot!  The place looks like it had a great ambience.

Yes! It was pretty well publicized when he was here. Glad you saw the episode!

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Never seen one of these issued before:

Fire Warning


KSC085-149-177-190000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
KANSAS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY TOPEKA KANSAS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
252 PM CST WED NOV 18 2020

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE KANSAS
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY TOPEKA KANSAS.

FROM SHAWNEE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT..RESPONDERS ARE FIGHTING
A LARGE DANGEROUS FIRE IN NW SHAWNEE COUNTY. PLEASE AVOID THE
AREA WEST OF ROSSVILLE AND NORTH AND ALONG HIGHWAY 24.

 

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Just now, OmahaSnowFan said:

Never seen one of these issued before:

Fire Warning



KSC085-149-177-190000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
KANSAS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY TOPEKA KANSAS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
252 PM CST WED NOV 18 2020

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE KANSAS
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY TOPEKA KANSAS.

FROM SHAWNEE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT..RESPONDERS ARE FIGHTING
A LARGE DANGEROUS FIRE IN NW SHAWNEE COUNTY. PLEASE AVOID THE
AREA WEST OF ROSSVILLE AND NORTH AND ALONG HIGHWAY 24.

 

I was just posting this as well...you've already posted the text but I'm adding the map.

Don't think I've ever seen a fire warning before...at least not on my area forecast map. Thought others might find this interesting.

Screenshot_2020-11-18 Topeka, KS.png

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >= 3":  Jan 1: 4.5"             Season total: 6.8"
  • 19-20 snowfalls >= 3":  Dec 15/16: 4.5"      Season total: 11.7"
  • Seasonal normal: 17.8" (All are official NWS amts)
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More flakes showing up in my grid icons. GRR for once has put the correct info in their AFD by saying all options are on the table. Normally they pick one and decide that'll be the outcome.

Quote

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020

-Windy and Mild Thursday and Friday

-Dry Through Saturday; Rain or Snow Possible Sunday

-Another Rain/Snow System Possible next Wednesday

Confidence is still low with respect to the precipitation
potential, amounts and type on Sunday as ensemble members are
offering up anything from a dry forecast to widespread rain of
over one inch to a swath of wet snow through the area.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

More flakes showing up in my grid icons. GRR for once has put the correct info in their AFD by saying all options are on the table. Normally they pick one and decide that'll be the outcome.

 

Stay tuned amigo...looks very interesting.

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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