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3 hours ago, Niko said:

Attm, 42F under sunny skies. Splendid day!

 

Btw: Warm-up is very brief. Only 2 days (Th n Fri). It gets colder by the weekend and stays BN all of next week as of now.

#2020 wx.  Noticed a couple of ponds in the area still had decent ice coverage mid-afternoon despite 46F and sunshine. Came home and was working in my yard and noticed a couple dandelions in bloom. 😄

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Crazy to think that just a week ago we were in the 70's all week! This turned out to be quite the ice storm to say the least. Ice accretion is around .5-.75" and trees are breaking like match sticks.

Came to West Virginia last week and have been here since. I’ve been lucky to have a lot of time off with Covid. It’s easily the most beautiful place I’ve ever been. Too bad the storm wiped most of the

1.41” of rain/freezing rain here so far. Crazy how much of a difference one or maybe two degrees make.  looking at my weather station, the temperature was between 31.6-32.2 all night long while we’v

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

#2020 wx.  Noticed a couple of ponds in the area still had decent ice coverage mid-afternoon despite 46F and sunshine. Came home and was working in my yard and noticed a couple dandelions in bloom. 😄

Not a good sign I am sensing......🤔....that, or perhaps, your grass needs treatment come Spring! 😅

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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The GFS has quickly trended toward a much stronger Tuesday/Wednesday system tracking across the region.  It is mostly rain, though.

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season snowfall: 23.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Thought maybe just maybe we were turning some kind of corner for this area. Nevermind, lol.

Just glad I got my November wind storm and a decent rainfall (by 2020 stds) along with it.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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58 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Hr 216 on GFS is what I'm thinking grows really soon. Has the look, but if the cold stays cut off, I'll miss again.

ENS are trending warmer and I haven't examined a EURO in a min. I still say facts don't lie. Not at all.

I see nothing @ h216 on any of the last 3 runs. You sure?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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PHX did it again and set a new record high yesterday of 89F.  Thankfully, that'll be the last of the record heat for this year, at least no more 90's...now comes some real delightful weather with temps in the 80's and 70's all of next week.  Prime time late Autumn weather in the valley of the sun.

Regarding the storm system for this weekend, it continues to trend S and has a TX Panhandle Hook "look" to it, right?

 

1.png

2.png

 

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Based off what I'm seeing, it appears to me that there will be 2 or 3 storm systems to track throughout Thanksgiving week.  These systems will primarily target the eastern and southern Sub while those out west are stuck in a dry pattern.  The flip towards a +PNA pattern will keep the storms from cutting NW.  Temps for the most part look marginal for any wintry precip, but the moisture is what a lot of members need.  It's still early in the cold season to talk about snow that will stick around for more than a few days.  Take what mother nature gives ya.

After this weekends system, the Black Wednesday storm looks to effect almost the same regions that will benefit from this weekends storm.  Following that, the EPS ensembles are picking up a storm forming out of the TX Panhandle region and tracking into the OHV.  This particular storm may lay down some snowfall.  With that being said, look at that AN precip stripe across the S MW into the Lower Lakes region.

4.png

 

Thinking about Snow???  The EPS is targeting the GL's region...primarily late month into early December...

 

5.png

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Today looks to be another mild and windy day. Several items come to mind for this November. 1. How warm it has been. 2. How windy it has been. and 3. how much sunshine we have had. Today forecast is for highs in the lower 60's while todays record high is 74 set in 1930 and it has reached 70 or better 3 times. But if it reaches into the lower 60's this would only be the 14th time it has reached 60 or better on November 19th in Grand Rapids recorded history.'

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This looks like the general theme going forward and would not be surprised, if it continues into early December. Looks like colder air filters in by the later parts of December and sticks around. I'll accept this! 😀

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_11/gfs_z500a_namer_16.thumb.png.2a26555878205333bc2590def27a6e3e.png

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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Attm, a balmy 50F under mostly cloudy skies. There is a "Wind Advisory" in effect for mby. Winds could gusts to as high as 45mph. Not as bad as last weekend, but, nevertheless, still strong enough to blow light objects around and cause some minor power outages.

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

PHX did it again and set a new record high yesterday of 89F.  Thankfully, that'll be the last of the record heat for this year, at least no more 90's...now comes some real delightful weather with temps in the 80's and 70's all of next week.  Prime time late Autumn weather in the valley of the sun.

Regarding the storm system for this weekend, it continues to trend S and has a TX Panhandle Hook "look" to it, right?

 

1.png

2.png

 

That'd be decent if it's correct. Are these maps from a subscription at that site, or free? I thought you were doing a WxBell sub for your Euro maps?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

Today looks to be another mild and windy day. Several items come to mind for this November. 1. How warm it has been. 2. How windy it has been. and 3. how much sunshine we have had. Today forecast is for highs in the lower 60's while todays record high is 74 set in 1930 and it has reached 70 or better 3 times. But if it reaches into the lower 60's this would only be the 14th time it has reached 60 or better on November 19th in Grand Rapids recorded history.'

This!  Was thinking the same thing as the brightness of it shone in my bedroom windows and woke me up yet again. I can't remember so many sunny days in every season for this area. Feels like Florida tbh.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That'd be decent if it's correct. Are these maps from a subscription at that site, or free? I thought you were doing a WxBell sub for your Euro maps?

Ryan Maue’s weather models site../

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Not familiar with this forecaster's initials at GRR. Wonder if he/she is new? Especially since they seem more bullish on wintry precip chances than is typical from that office. I'm not used to it.

Quote


-- Chance of rain and/or snow Sunday --

There remains a fair amount of disagreement in the GFS and ECMWF
ensembles about the location of a sharpening baroclinic zone /
front over the weekend and the track of a deepening low pressure
system through the southern Great Lakes on Sunday, and this will
have everything to do with the temperature and precip amount/type
forecast. The ECMWF ensembles have trended toward a middle-of-the-
road mode with a quarter-inch of precip and 1-3 inches of snow,
though there are some outliers with very little precip and also up
to an inch of precip. Last night`s 00Z run of the GEFS also had a
large spread among its members, though the average precip amounts
at both GRR and JXN were around an inch, much of it falling as
snow. So, while uncertainty remains, it`s quite possible that much
of the area could see a blanket of snow on Sunday.

I see zero models trending positive for Sunday, and next week's snow chance looks to be just north of here. Oh well, as been said, it's still early for this region. Wouldn't mind getting "on the board" going into December tho. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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37 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Not familiar with this forecaster's initials at GRR. Wonder if he/she is new? Especially since they seem more bullish on wintry precip chances than is typical from that office. I'm not used to it.

I see zero models trending positive for Sunday, and next week's snow chanceslooks to be just north of here. Oh well, as been said, it's still early for this region. Wouldn't mind getting "on the board" going into December tho. 

The UKMET looks like the EC with 2 snows for ya in the next 7 days.

Round 1

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

And the total from the 2 storms.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The UKMET looks like the EC with 2 snows for ya in the next 7 days.

Round 1

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

And the total from the 2 storms.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Thanks bud, I didn't even think/remember to peek at the Ukie. Perhaps I spoke a bit soon and I'd gladly be wrong on that, lol.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thanks bud, I didn't even think/remember to peek at the Ukie. Perhaps I spoke a bit soon and I'd gladly be wrong on that, lol.

I'm not sure your wrong this part of the pattern is warm.  But your close to the hot spot this year so it's possible for ya to get some snow out of this.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The UKMET looks like the EC with 2 snows for ya in the next 7 days.

Round 1

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

And the total from the 2 storms.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Thanks for posting this Clinton...👍

Looks like a decent hit!

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Thanks bud, I didn't even think/remember to peek at the Ukie. Perhaps I spoke a bit soon and I'd gladly be wrong on that, lol.

I remember Ukie scoring big a couple of times in recent Winters. Something to keep an eye on for our regions this weekend. Do I dare get my snowblower ready during Thanksgiving week? I would not mind, as this would be an acceptable timing in my books. As long as its not early to mid November!❄️

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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A thin band of moderate-heavy rain is about to pass. Icing is a concern with temps being around freezing.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Drought continues.  No relief in sight.  Very sad.

 

 

Here in T-town we have only had 0.73" of precip since Oct 1 which is only about 21% of normal, though we do have rain chances during the next week. Dry and warm has been the rule with Nov temp anomaly running at +4.3F for the month. I sure hope Dec-Feb is not like this...lol 

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >= 3":  Jan 1: 4.5"             Season total: 6.8"
  • 19-20 snowfalls >= 3":  Dec 15/16: 4.5"      Season total: 11.7"
  • Seasonal normal: 17.8" (All are official NWS amts)
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8 hours ago, westMJim said:

It is now officially 64 at GRR and this ties 1985 for the 8th warmest November 19th of record. At this time it is clear and windy here with and it is also 64 here.

30 hours ago it was a string of 20's and this pm a string of 60's. Quite the ride we're taking. 65F for the high so we blasted past the 59F forecast. Finished my autumn yard chores and got started on holiday lights. About 7-10 days earlier than usual but I cannot remember stringing 'em up in shirt sleeves before.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My high was 63F. Almost hit a record, but no cigar! We will do it again tomorrow b4 we are back to normal November weather and then BN. Man, once those winds kicked in earlier today, that warmth rushed in quickly. It will be a mild evening tanite w breezy conditions. Speaking of breezy, winds topped off today at 46mph.

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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My day off work so been busy with said chores and errands, but now enjoying a quiet evening and a great one at that as I find myself in snow tracking mode for the first (legit) time this season. While some globals have shoved the main precip swath south of the Mitt completely, the Euro, Ukie, and now in range NAM are reflecting a curl northward as shown on Tom's map this morning which brings decent qpf into SMI.

These same models also turn just cold enough to indicate some if not all the moisture falling as snow. Not a huge deal by any means, but 2-5" amounts seem in play attm. Waiting for 0z runs ofc, but my pm AFD is actually saying that accumulations are possible.

NAM 12k has a nice looking development and is on the colder side with virtually all snow.

 

20201119 18z NAM12k_mslp_pcpn_frzn_fh63-84.gif

20201119 18z NAM12k h84 Snowfall-KCH.png

20201119 18z Euro h84 Surf.png

20201119 18z Euro h90 Snow-SLE.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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@Niko

UKmet really likes us this week. Keep in mind this is for Sunday and next Tue/Wed. It's also SLR, not Kuchera but it's still nice to see those purple shades. Even half would be a great start here. See if other models trend our way??

 

 

20201119 12z EK h144 Snow-SLE.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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GRR

Quote

-- Chance of rain/snow Sunday; accumulations possible --

Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to support
the sfc front being well to our south on Sunday with MI in the
cold air north of the front. While the ensemble mean QPF has been
trending lower with time, there`s still some support for snow or
a mix of rain and snow occurring as a sfc low tracks through OH
toward Lk Erie. The best chance would be for areas south and east
of Grand Rapids.

If the precipitation is relatively light on Sunday, which looks
quite possible, wet bulbing won`t be as effective and it may be
more of a light rain/snow mix with not much impact as temps warm
to the upper 30s to around 40.

However if heavier precipitation rates can develop underneath a
deformation zone band, the snow could become heavy enough to
lower the sfc temps and accumulate - creating travel impacts. The
best chance of seeing that appears to be across the higher
elevation area around Jackson (the Irish Hills), but a few EC
ensemble members still hint at a few inches of accumulation for
areas farther north including GRR, MOP, RQB.

-- Another system Tuesday-Wednesday --

Strong push of warm advection initiates to our south on Tuesday
and precipitation may break out by afternoon in the form of mixed
rain and snow. Still big uncertainty though as to how the main
system evolves/tracks on Wednesday also leading to questions of
precip amounts and types. It`s possible we`ll see some impacts so
this system will need monitored as we approach the holiday.

 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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20/0z GEM, ICON, and GFS have joined the north party after over-shooting the landing zone. GFS still warm, but the others have at least some snow in the defo zone.

 

20201120 0z GEM h78 Snowfall-SLR.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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13 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

20/0z GEM, ICON, and GFS have joined the north party after over-shooting the landing zone. GFS still warm, but the others have at least some snow in the defo zone.

 

20201120 0z GEM h78 Snowfall-SLR.png

That looks like a good hit of snow for mby....sweet! 😀

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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15 minutes ago, Niko said:

That looks like a good hit of snow for mby....sweet! 😀

Would be wild if the GFS came all the way back to what it flashed 48 hrs ago..

 

20201118 0z GFS h126 KCH Snowfall.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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8 minutes ago, Niko said:

Its a mild evening tanite w lows only dropping into the 40s. Skies are partly cloudy. For this time of the year, its a gorgeous nite out there.

Mild and breezy night while tracking next snow system. This is totally 07-08

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  • Snow 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Would be wild if the GFS came all the way back to what it flashed 48 hrs ago..

 

20201118 0z GFS h126 KCH Snowfall.png

True. Lets see what outcome this has for us. Right now, it looks very interesting.

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Mild and breezy night while tracking next snow system. This is totally 07-08

Fill me in w 07-08 buddy. I am guessing it was a very good Winter here. Back home, that year was a total dud. If you look back at snowfall tally's, I think less than 5" had fallen all Winter. I remember a lot of sleet came w that Winter. Hardly any snow.

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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22 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I see nothing @ h216 on any of the last 3 runs. You sure?

Something is up. Just wait...

The event is there. Right on cue.

gfs_z500a_us_34.thumb.png.ce1c1819e00c8151d83639b45cfc39f8.png

This is on time, but have to see if the cold fills in. There's going to be changes between now and then over the cold source regions and it is November. Elsewise, I would be calling for a big snow already.

I just can't call it a lie. Its almost exactly on the time I stated and 3 days is a long time in model land.

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44 minutes ago, Niko said:

FAR_Weather would have liked this.......

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_11/sn10_acc.us_ov.thumb.png.181c4eadbad6aa861ab6bd0f3a739cec.png

Yes, yes I would have.

Dry as a bone on models here...

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Fill me in w 07-08 buddy. I am guessing it was a very good Winter here. Back home, that year was a total dud. If you look back at snowfall tally's, I think less than 5" had fallen all Winter. I remember a lot of sleet came w that Winter. Hardly any snow.

Can best describe it as "very snowy" but not a deep winter. The snow came often and melted just as regularly. January was above normal temps but still managed 2 feet of snow here. KBTL had 93" for the season. A bit less here in Marshall no doubt. Temps did the roller-coaster effect but there were many storms to track. Snow never got too deep, barely making double digits. I did see that Bloomingdale in the snowbelt had their snowiest season with a whopping 160" total but barely managed a 12" depth max. We were glad to get so much snow tho, as it could easily have been rain instead. Seemed like it got just cold enough to snow every time. 

 

 

 

BC 5NW 2007-2008 Snow total.PNG

BC 5NW 2007-2008 Max Snow Depths.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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With the record warm start to November 2020 the month is now running at near record warm levels. With 11 days to go the mean at Grand Rapids is now at 47.8° IF that were to hold until the end of the month it would set a new record. Yesterdays high of 64 was the 8th warmest recorded for November 19th at Grand Rapids. The official overnight low at GRR was 53. The low here at my house was 52 at this time it is clear and 55 both here at my house and at the airport.

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9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Can best describe it as "very snowy" but not a deep winter. The snow came often and melted just as regularly. January was above normal temps but still managed 2 feet of snow here. KBTL had 93" for the season. A bit less here in Marshall no doubt. Temps did the roller-coaster effect but there were many storms to track. Snow never got too deep, barely making double digits. I did see that Bloomingdale in the snowbelt had their snowiest season with a whopping 160" total but barely managed a 12" depth max. We were glad to get so much snow tho, as it could easily have been rain instead. Seemed like it got just cold enough to snow every time. 

 

 

 

BC 5NW 2007-2008 Snow total.PNG

BC 5NW 2007-2008 Max Snow Depths.PNG

Awesome! Back in NYC that year, it was a "Very" frustrating Winter. Sleet after sleet/freezing rain and etc. It just did not wanna snow, but the following years rocked. I remember, we got blasted w snowstorms, especially 2009-10 and 2010-11. IIRC, back in December 2010, Meteorologists were cought off guard w a severe blizzard that paralyzed NYC. It was after Christmas Day (Dec 26-27th). They were calling for a few inches and instead, we received  20 to 30 inches of snow ( my area received 29.1" Northern Queens vicinity). I remember I submitted a long disquisition to the TWC and to other weather stations, stated that these mistakes should not be happening. A lot of people got stranded, roads were impassable, supermarkets were all emptied out and etc. 

Enjoy the pics....

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/89/December_2010_Nor%27easter_on_December_27%2C_2010.jpg

image.jpeg.cd90ae9ebbab429e8106eff5063c2b0d.jpeg

image.jpeg.d0458c9abd6249abdc0067479a329a28.jpeg

https://www.nydailynews.com/resizer/jrk9cyiIogrNckx86K3Z6_JT_Ms=/800x597/top/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tronc.s3.amazonaws.com/public/NPWZG7GKTJEG7U5P5GE3DPTJF4.jpg

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/19/3f/db/193fdbeddadbc03557ccda1b7fb86dd7.jpg

 

AHHHhhh...the good ol' Nor Easters!!!!!! Now, these are real snowstorms.

 

 

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Awesome! Back in NYC that year, it was a "Very" frustrating Winter. Sleet after sleet/freezing rain and etc. It just did not wanna snow, but the following years rocked. I remember, we got blasted w snowstorms, especially 2009-10 and 2010-11. IIRC, back in December 2010, Meteorologists were cought off guard w a severe blizzard that paralyzed NYC. It was after Christmas Day (Dec 26-27th). They were calling for a few inches and instead, we received  20 to 30 inches of snow ( my area received 29.1" Northern Queens vicinity). I remember I submitted a long disquisition to the TWC and to other weather stations, stated that these mistakes should not be happening. A lot of people got stranded, roads were impassable, supermarkets were all emptied out and etc. 

Enjoy the pics....

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/89/December_2010_Nor%27easter_on_December_27%2C_2010.jpg

image.jpeg.cd90ae9ebbab429e8106eff5063c2b0d.jpeg

image.jpeg.d0458c9abd6249abdc0067479a329a28.jpeg

https://www.nydailynews.com/resizer/jrk9cyiIogrNckx86K3Z6_JT_Ms=/800x597/top/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tronc.s3.amazonaws.com/public/NPWZG7GKTJEG7U5P5GE3DPTJF4.jpg

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/19/3f/db/193fdbeddadbc03557ccda1b7fb86dd7.jpg

 

AHHHhhh...the good ol' Nor Easters!!!!!! Now, these are real snowstorms.

 

 

Yeah, that was a crazy storm in NYC! We'd had little up to that point here, so the shoe was on the other foot as they say. Winter 10-11 did finally get going back here, but SWMI was NOT the epicenter as regions W, N, and even E did better in the snowstorm dept. Awesome photos, thx for sharing

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Watching for my "inch" on the deck with Sunday's system. We only avg 1.9" for November, so this would be typical.

Quote


-- System on Sunday may still bring rain and snow --

Most of the heavier precipitation on Sunday will be just south of
the state of Michigan where the best dynamic lift will be. The
precipitation from this event is caused by the entrance region to
the same jet that is bringing the cold front through today. A
shortwave coming out of the North Pacific wave train races east
and tries to dig a mid level trough as it moves east. That caused
the jet segment over Michigan to lift north, which is why our
southern rows of counties are in the north edge of the significant
precipitation with this event. If that Pacific shortwave digs a
little more, that would cause the jet entrance region to be
farther north and in turn bring more precipitation into the I-96
area. The ECMWF has been tracking farther south with each model
run on this system over the past 36 hours, while the GFS is
tracking farther north and west. Seems the ideal place will end up
in our I-69 area. With the wet bulb zero height near 500 ft Sunday
morning this should be mostly snow there so an inch or so is
possible. It the system does track a little farther north we
could see 2 to 3 inches but at this point that looks unlikely.

Light precipitation should linger a good part of Sunday but the
heaviest rates will be near 7 am (2 or 3 hours either side of
that).

Just mostly cloudy over northern area with maybe some flurries or
sprinkles in the afternoon.

 

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  • Snow 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, that was a crazy storm in NYC! We'd had little up to that point here, so the shoe was on the other foot as they say. Winter 10-11 did finally get going back here, but SWMI was NOT the epicenter as regions W, N, and even E did better in the snowstorm dept. Awesome photos, thx for sharing

You bet! 👍

Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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