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Crazy to think that just a week ago we were in the 70's all week! This turned out to be quite the ice storm to say the least. Ice accretion is around .5-.75" and trees are breaking like match sticks.

Came to West Virginia last week and have been here since. I’ve been lucky to have a lot of time off with Covid. It’s easily the most beautiful place I’ve ever been. Too bad the storm wiped most of the

1.41” of rain/freezing rain here so far. Crazy how much of a difference one or maybe two degrees make.  looking at my weather station, the temperature was between 31.6-32.2 all night long while we’v

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Temps will turn colder tanite as a CF is forecast to drive through my area this evening largely unnoticed save for a few clouds. Lows tanite will fall near the freezing mark. 

 

Attm,  its a balmy 63F under partly sunny skies along w a slight breeze.

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

12z EPS...first 1" of the season coming to a MI/IN member near you...

 

1.png

Nice to see the Euro staying the course. Via Kuchera, expectations of 8:1 slop are in full effect. 1" of mush is indeed my target for success. Anything above that would be bonus snow and I will consider it as a good omen. Very similar snow swath progression to 07-08 too. I was looping the 5 or 6 storms we got that season this morning.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Gaylord mentioning the Tue/Wed potential.

 

20201121 APX Storm graphic.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Just about 65 hrs later, back to freezing here.

 

20201121 KRMY 2 am Obs.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The overnight low here at my house was 29 the official overnight low at GRR was 31. At this time it is mostly clear and 31 here with a lot of frost. We will have to see how much snow fall GRR records in the next 9 days. At this time only 0.2" has fallen at Grand Rapids and that was on November 1st. And that is the total for the season so far. While there is snow in the forecast and thus more snow should fall before the end of the month but at this time there are only 11 Novembers were less then 0.2" of snow has fallen. Of the 11 only 1 winter season (2001/02) with 105.2" had above average snow fall. But 3 of the lowest total snow fall seasons came after a November with no or little snow fall. (1905/03 20") (1906/07 30") and 1948/49 33.6") while the case could be made as to how accurate the 1905/6 and 1905/7 season totals were there is a good case to be made that if no or little snow falls in November at Grand Rapids that the seasonal snow fall could be below average. The average in the 11 winter seasons was just 52.2" 
 

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Per NOAA:

A disturbance can be seen on satellite moving across the northern US
Rockies will kick out into the plains and amplify across the plains
into the Midwest on Sunday. This will trigger the development of a
low pressure system that will ride along the aforementioned stalled
boundary across the Ohio River Valley through tomorrow. The GFS has
come into a little better alignment with some of the other models
with the latest runs and brings more of the higher QPF of the
precipitation shield on the northern end of the low into southeast
Michigan. The coupled jet circulation aloft and favorable wet bulb
temperatures will result in a decent shot at accumulating snowfall
Sunday morning. Leading moisture plume lifts across the state line
around 09Z after Sunday morning with the peak of accumulating snow
showers occuring roughly between 6 am and noon. Temperatures hovering
in the low/mid 30s during the favored snowfall window may limit some
accumulation, especially on roadways. However, heavier bursts of
snowfall within focused mid level fgen could overcome surface
temperatures and certainly lead to a wet/slushy snow accumulation on
some roadways. The best forcing and moisture will be focused along a
line from Adrian northeast through north Metro Detroit with lighter
precipitation extending north through the I-69 corridor. Given a
trend towards colder solutions and slightly better consensus on QPF
amounts, will trend snowfall totals slightly higher with amounts in
the 1-2" range within the favorable forcing zone.
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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

The overnight low here at my house was 29 the official overnight low at GRR was 31. At this time it is mostly clear and 31 here with a lot of frost. We will have to see how much snow fall GRR records in the next 9 days. At this time only 0.2" has fallen at Grand Rapids and that was on November 1st. And that is the total for the season so far. While there is snow in the forecast and thus more snow should fall before the end of the month but at this time there are only 11 Novembers were less then 0.2" of snow has fallen. Of the 11 only 1 winter season (2001/02) with 105.2" had above average snow fall. But 3 of the lowest total snow fall seasons came after a November with no or little snow fall. (1905/03 20") (1906/07 30") and 1948/49 33.6") while the case could be made as to how accurate the 1905/6 and 1905/7 season totals were there is a good case to be made that if no or little snow falls in November at Grand Rapids that the seasonal snow fall could be below average. The average in the 11 winter seasons was just 52.2" 
 

'98, '06, & '10 had less than 0.5" Novembers, yet went on to be decent to good snow seasons. 06-07 ended up about 125% above average actually. November in GR can be a tell-tale, but back-loaded winters do happen and Nina's are known for warm Novembers. But I think you prefer to focus on dire snow outcomes for some reason. Winter hasn't yet begun. If we're sitting with so little snow a month from now, that will be much more concerning to me. Anyhow, cheers Mate! I do enjoy your stat digging.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Per NOAA:


A disturbance can be seen on satellite moving across the northern US
Rockies will kick out into the plains and amplify across the plains
into the Midwest on Sunday. This will trigger the development of a
low pressure system that will ride along the aforementioned stalled
boundary across the Ohio River Valley through tomorrow. The GFS has
come into a little better alignment with some of the other models
with the latest runs and brings more of the higher QPF of the
precipitation shield on the northern end of the low into southeast
Michigan. The coupled jet circulation aloft and favorable wet bulb
temperatures will result in a decent shot at accumulating snowfall
Sunday morning. Leading moisture plume lifts across the state line
around 09Z after Sunday morning with the peak of accumulating snow
showers occuring roughly between 6 am and noon. Temperatures hovering
in the low/mid 30s during the favored snowfall window may limit some
accumulation, especially on roadways. However, heavier bursts of
snowfall within focused mid level fgen could overcome surface
temperatures and certainly lead to a wet/slushy snow accumulation on
some roadways. The best forcing and moisture will be focused along a
line from Adrian northeast through north Metro Detroit with lighter
precipitation extending north through the I-69 corridor. Given a
trend towards colder solutions and slightly better consensus on QPF
amounts, will trend snowfall totals slightly higher with amounts in
the 1-2" range within the favorable forcing zone.

Get that snow board ready amigo. Per the EPS maps Tom has posted Marshall and your region are in the same shading so we could get similar amounts unless things change. GRR did mention the GFS has come to the party a little late to the gig but showing up nonetheless.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Just now, jaster220 said:

Get that snow board ready amigo. Per the EPS maps Tom has posted Marshall and your region are in the same shading so we could get similar amounts unless things change. GRR did mention the GFS has come to the party a little late to the gig but showing up nonetheless.

Tbh, the timing is perfect as well. Thanksgiving week and at the same time putting lights outside w snow otg is superb. Oh, and hot chocolate to go w that. "Tis the Season Amigo." So far, o.2" in the snow dept and more will be added soon. Cheers to a great start to our Winter season.

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

'98, '06, & '10 had less than 0.5" Novembers, yet went on to be decent to good snow seasons. 06-07 ended up about 125% above average actually. November in GR can be a tell-tale, but back-loaded winters do happen and Nina's are known for warm Novembers. But I think you prefer to focus on dire snow outcomes for some reason. Winter hasn't yet begun. If we're sitting with so little snow a month from now, that will be much more concerning to me. Anyhow, cheers Mate! I do enjoy your stat digging.

Good point.....Also, tbh, Winter starts full gear ( now, this is in my books ), from Christmas Day till end of February. That is the brunt of Winter time according to my calendar, but I would not mind to get additional snowstorms and cold weather till mid March.

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

'98, '06, & '10 had less than 0.5" Novembers, yet went on to be decent to good snow seasons. 06-07 ended up about 125% above average actually. November in GR can be a tell-tale, but back-loaded winters do happen and Nina's are known for warm Novembers. But I think you prefer to focus on dire snow outcomes for some reason. Winter hasn't yet begun. If we're sitting with so little snow a month from now, that will be much more concerning to me. Anyhow, cheers Mate! I do enjoy your stat digging.

I might have given the wrong impression. I did not mean that just because there was little to no snow in November that the winter season would be a total wash out but that the chances of much above average snow fall would be much lower. Of the top 25 snowiest seasons at Grand Rapids only 2001/02 with 105.2' (of witch 53.9" fell in December of that 51.7" fell from December 23rd to the 31st) 1962/63 with 89.7" (that year December and January were extremely cold and snowy) 2006/07 A back loaded winter. 1998/99 had a very snowy January with 46.8" Of the 11 winters I had on my list (winters where November had 0.2" or less) 2 of the winter 1905/06 and 1906/07 I do NOT believe the total snow fall for the winter seasons are correct with just 20" and 30" being reported. And the winter of 1984/85 while only 69.6" fell that winter January and February were cold and snowy and there was over 20" of snow on the ground in February that winter. And That winter was a La Nina winter. But hey we have no control on how the winter (or any other season) will play out so it is best to set back and see how it all plays out.  

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Models have trended more north and wet with the Tuesday/Wednesday system.  It's looking good for 1-2" of rain across Iowa.  My area could still see a bit of snow at the start.

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season snowfall: 23.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Get that snow board ready amigo. Per the EPS maps Tom has posted Marshall and your region are in the same shading so we could get similar amounts unless things change. GRR did mention the GFS has come to the party a little late to the gig but showing up nonetheless.

30s and 4 inches of snow is absolutely useless for midwestern snowboarding when there is no base. All we need is 30 hours of temps under 28 with it being dry. Natural snow is actually absolutely horrible for a base outside of real mountains. Man-made snow is more ice-like and far denser, it grooms out very nicely and is very difficult to melt. I've seen natural, powdery snowfalls of 8in+ be groomed out to less than an inch.

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The Euro continues to show potential at the end of the month.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png

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season snowfall: 23.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Latest per NOAA & Accu-Weather beneath:

Latest hi-res guidance, specifically
the RAP13, edges strong fgen around h750 along with a small area of
near zero EPV along the leading edge of the precipitation with
further support from h850 fgen entering by the late morning, as
right entrance jet-streak dynamics also sets up to aid in snowfall
production. The approaching low pressure system under SW h500 mb
flow along with strong dynamic support/fgen northeast/north of the
low suggests mesoscale banding may be possible with this system. If
this scenario materializes, higher snow rates (higher snow ratios)
and perhaps quicker cooling of the low-level profile could aid in
producing snowfall totals more on the order of 2-4 inches. Latest
HREF trends also hint at this lower-end possibility, and the 90th
percentile snowfall accumulation total of the ingested NBM models
have also trended up throughout the day (QPF amounts on uptrend).
The most likely spot for these higher totals would again likely line
up along the Irish Hills and northeast into Port Huron. Overall, the
main forecast message going out this afternoon will be the likely
chance for a slushy accumulation up to 1-2 inches by the late
afternoon, noting the low-end possibility for overachieving snowfall
totals, given the potential for robust forcing. Higher snowfall potential
will continue to be monitored tonight as the system edges towards
Michigan.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/snow-arrive.jpg?w=632

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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GRR

-- Snow Southeast on Sunday --

A developing wave along the baroclinic zone over the Ohio Valley
tonight will result in an area of frontegenetical forcing across
southeast Lower Michigan during Sunday. We have trended POPS and QPF
upwards across the southeast zones based on overall model consensus
and the philosophy that mesoscale bands will form and perhaps pivot
over this area for several hours. We are going for 1 to 3 inch
accumulations across the far southeast forecast area with the
highest amounts in Jackson County. Given the expectation that snow
rates and dynamical cooling will overcome marginal surface/skin
temps, it is possible travel will be impacted by a coating of slush
on the roads, but these impacts are expected to be minor.
Given the nature of mesoscale banding, it is possible that locally
higher snowfall amounts, and large local variations in amounts will
occur. We expect a strong gradient to the north of the area of
measurable snow, with little chance for measurable snow near and
north of Grand Rapids and Lansing.

The snow will move off to the east by Sunday evening. A secondary
trough/cold front moving through could bring light snow or flurries
across the northern half of the forecast area Sunday evening,
followed by scattered lake enhanced snow showers, which will end
Monday morning as surface ridging moves in and inversion heights
drop.

--Snow North on Tuesday --

Surface ridging with seasonably cold temperatures prevails for
Monday and Monday night then the sfc ridge moves east with an
approaching Plains low for Tuesday. This looks like the classic set
up for our central and northern forecast area to pick up a quick
burst of measurable warm advection snow, with the 12Z NAM12 showing
potential for 2 to 4 inches across the higher ground of the northern
forecast area where cold surface temperatures will allow most of the
snow to stick without melting.

The snow should transition to rain/drizzle later Tuesday night as
the warm advection continues, with the surface low moving through on
Wednesday. Fair weather should return for Wednesday night and
continue into Thanksgiving Day.


&&



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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12z GFS and NAM came north bringing a better slug of precip. 3" Kuchera now for me per that run. This isnt last November's cold storm but that banding led to a 14" jackpot in Jackson county, so can't rule out an over-performance with this one.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

12z GFS and NAM came north bringing a better slug of precip. 3" Kuchera now for me per that run. This isnt last November's cold storm but that banding led to a 14" jackpot in Jackson county, so can't rule out an over-performance with this one.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Amigo...Correct me if I am wrong, but is that a 4-6inch snowevent for my area. WOAH!

You are right though, this has a chance to be an overachiever.

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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Attm, skies have turned completely cloudy. Temps are getting colder and colder w a current reading of 36F. Lows tanite near 30F and yes, snow is on the way. The air is also very still outside, I mean, literally no wind at all.

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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3k NAM, now in range, has a nice burst of snow around here Monday night.

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_55.png

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season snowfall: 23.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Rain/sleet cocktail falling outside from a little weenie band. 36°F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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3 hours ago, Niko said:

Amigo...Correct me if I am wrong, but is that a 4-6inch snow event for my area. WOAH!

You are right though, this has a chance to be an overachiever.

Sure is! Ofc, it's just a guess by the model, but trends are our friends. Almost comical reading the AFD's from my office the past few days. This has gone from the usual "nothing to see here, gonna whiff south" to this evening's update calling it a "storm". Cheers! to this being "a thing" this winter for us. 😁

Quote

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2020

Latest guidance continues to show Jackson County with the most
snow in our CWA from the storm system on Sunday. Generally
looking at a 2 to 3 inch amount for the county with the Brooklyn
area seeing perhaps locally more. It is worth noting that there is
a tight gradient of snow forecasted for Southeast and South
Central Lower MI. So any northward shift of the area of snow could
result in higher amounts for Jackson...Calhoun and even Ingham
Counties. With surface temps near or just below freezing at
time...there could be some slick spots on the roads. At this
time...no changes planned and will continue to monitor trends
closely.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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N. Indiana with 2" here. Happily take that.

 

20201121 IWX Snowfall graphic.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Whoa!  Tom's back yard under the real-deal snow shield Monday night per NOAA map

 

20201121 noaa d3 map.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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22/0z Euro drinkin the old GFS koolaid with a fantasy range bomb over the E Lakes.

Yeah, right Euro..

 

20201122 0z Euro h192-222.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

22/0z Euro drinkin the old GFS koolaid with a fantasy range bomb over the E Lakes.

Yeah, right Euro..

 

20201122 0z Euro h192-222.gif

There is growing EPS member support for a potential "Big" storm to form out of the deep south near Texarkana and shoot N/NE up into the OHV.  This one has caught my attn Bigly because I have plans to come back home.  Gonna watch this one like a hawk.

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Sure is! Ofc, it's just a guess by the model, but trends are our friends. Almost comical reading the AFD's from my office the past few days. This has gone from the usual "nothing to see here, gonna whiff south" to this evening's update calling it a "storm". Cheers! to this being "a thing" this winter for us. 😁

 

Cheers Amigo! 😀

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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Here we go.......

First headline of the season and plenty more to come this  upcoming Winter!!!!!

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
405 AM EST Sun Nov 22 2020

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-222115-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.201122T0905Z-201123T0100Z/
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-
Monroe-
Including the cities of Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren,
Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
405 AM EST Sun Nov 22 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow with high intensity at times and 2 to 4 inches of
  accumulation expected.

* WHERE...St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw,
  Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...Now until 8 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS... Low visibility and slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... A mix of light rain and snow changes to
  all snow during the early morning. Bursts of high intensity
  snowfall is expected by mid morning into early afternoon. 
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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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Looking at thermal profiles on the NAM the 850s stay pretty cold during most of this front end hit. And precip rates are looking pretty strong. I think there is a chance this over performs before the warm air finally wins out. 

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Season Snowfall: 20.5"

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37 minutes ago, Niko said:

Radar is looking magnificent...loaded w moisture.

https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/wu/wxtype/county_loc/day/animate.png

Flakes are starting to get bigger now out here in northern St Clair county, kinda surprised we got as much snow already as we have considering the flakes have been really tiny so far, probably 1/2” or so already.

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Todays snow fall is missing my area to the SE that is something that happens from time to time. We will have to see if that is a set up that happens more this winter season. There is a lot of variability to year to year snowfall totals. For the snow belt areas of the Great Lakes it depends on how cold it becomes what the wind directions are and how windy it is. And if we get some big system snows to with that. In areas that do not receive as much lake effect (or any) it all depends on how systems shape up. For no lake effect areas one or two big storms will make the difference. A good example is happing right now. With todays system it looks like areas around Detroit will take a quick jump ahead of areas in Northern Michigan. At this time it is cloudy here with a temperature of 39.

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

Here we go.......

First headline of the season and plenty more to come this  upcoming Winter!!!!!

Winter Weather Advisory


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
405 AM EST Sun Nov 22 2020

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-222115-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.201122T0905Z-201123T0100Z/
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-
Monroe-
Including the cities of Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren,
Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
405 AM EST Sun Nov 22 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow with high intensity at times and 2 to 4 inches of
  accumulation expected.

* WHERE...St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw,
  Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...Now until 8 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS... Low visibility and slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... A mix of light rain and snow changes to
  all snow during the early morning. Bursts of high intensity
  snowfall is expected by mid morning into early afternoon. 

Snow began here about 4:30 per the airport unit but I'm not up for another 6 hrs with my current schedule. Had some decent rates about 30 mins ago and it looked like a full-fledged storm, other than green grass blades poking thru. Most everything besides pavement has a slushy 1/2" or so. Just enough to look very wintry. If I was pressed to estimate, I'd say we've had 1" but with 33F temp it's melting from beneath as fast as it falls so we won't see much depth. Perfect way to begin the season. You know winter's ready to do it's thing but without the clean-up. 

Don't mind scoring my first winter headline either, tho this one time it may have overkill. GRR leaning on a slippery spots and 1st snow of the season. Idk, I'm in town with notorious UHI, especially after torch days so there may indeed have been a period of slickness out in the county? Who knows but last November's storm on Vet's Day was also the first snow and was really bad, causing serious crashes on I-94 and warranted upgrading to a Warning (8-14" in Jackson Cnty!) but they never did. Maybe they're trying to make amends.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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