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November 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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43 minutes ago, james1976 said:

So the Euro and CMC both show a big storm for this next weekend but GFS shows nothing at all. DMX siding with the GFS and saying it will be quiet. Hmmm.....

IMO there should be a system for the weekend but most likely weaker than what the Euro and CMC are showing.

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Attm, 37F w cloudy skies. Feels nice seeing a little snow otg during Thanksgiving week. Exactly the way I like it to be this time of the year. Speaking of snow, Detroit ended up w 1.9", while here in mby, I scored a very nice 2.8" which is perfect! As I have said, save the good stuff for December and afterwards.

MACOMB COUNTY***:0808/ 34 /  30 /  34 / 0.25/ 2.8/1

DTW****: Detroit Metro Airport:   40 /  32  /  35  / 0.37  /  1.9 /1
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tonight's snow will require me to be up late, not just to watch, but to measure.  After 2 or 3 am, the melt will begin.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Could we finish off with a Bang???  There is more model data indicating that we may have ourselves a strong system to track late in the month.  Last night's 00z Euro took a track a bit farther NW this run...those who are initially on the warm side, benefit from wrap-around snows.  These features are to far out to pin point now but I'm digging the potential for this storm.  Let's see how this all shakes out.

2.png

GRR channeling you Tom!

Quote


-- Another system over the weekend --

The weekend will give way to more unsettled weather though there is
some discrepancies in timing and location. This weakens
confidence in the path of the systems. However there is some
credence that following a dry front on Sunday with lake effect
possible. The end of November has the potential to end with a bang
and go out like a lion with a weather system progged to move
through Sunday night into next Monday.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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9 minutes ago, james1976 said:

GFS still quiet for the end of the month

It sometimes misses the party invite. And then finds it later on.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This morning's NAM 12k has improved the look over SWMI for tomorrow. The snow shield is less of a thin sliver, and it remains more snow until finished vs changing to a mix or rain at the end. Hoping it's onto something. NWS mentioning now as well that daytime event mostly snow falling, if not piling up much down my way.

48hr Kuchera map that covers the event has me with a chance at 3-ish inches which is a positive trend from the inch or so it had a day ago. 850's apparently hold better than previously seen.

 

20201123 12z NAM12k h48 Snowfall-KCH.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Attm, 37F w cloudy skies. Feels nice seeing a little snow otg during Thanksgiving week. Exactly the way I like it to be this time of the year. Speaking of snow, Detroit ended up w 1.9", while here in mby, I scored a very nice 2.8" which is perfect! As I have said, save the good stuff for December and afterwards.


MACOMB COUNTY***:0808/ 34 /  30 /  34 / 0.25/ 2.8/1


DTW****: Detroit Metro Airport:   40 /  32  /  35  / 0.37  /  1.9 /1

Congrats amigo, nice score and jumped in the lead. Looks like LES may be my friend this winter. Last year it comprised 27% of my total (about normal) but I'm thinking it will be on the increase just as GRR mentioned when they posted the NOAA winter outlook.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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19 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Snowing moderately in Omaha right now, it’s even coming down hard enough to stick on the grass and on elevated surfaces. 
 

Nice little surprise even though it won’t last long.

That same band provided a nice quick soaking here this morning with maybe a few wet snowflakes mixed in. Impressive that it's changed to accumulating snow! 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Congrats amigo, nice score and jumped in the lead. Looks like LES may be my friend this winter. Last year it comprised 27% of my total (about normal) but I'm thinking it will be on the increase just as GRR mentioned when they posted the NOAA winter outlook.

Thanks amigo! ❄️

Here is to a great, snowy start to this upcoming Winter season!

Btw: How much did you get from yesterdays snowevent? Also, might score a little more snow w tomorrows system. Have to keep an close eye on that. Marshall is looking likely to receive more snow w tomorrows storm than Macomb.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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36 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Canadian on Sunday.  This would be fun to track.  I hope this system holds together the next couple days on the models.

Unfortunately, the Euro just caved to the GFS, at least for today's run.  The northern wave sweeps right past the southern energy without pulling it north and phasing.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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WWA also issued for east-central Iowa and nw Illinois.  DVN is saying 2-4".  Around Cedar Rapids it would likely be 2", with 3-4" possible along highway 20 (Dubuque).

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Attm, its 41F under mostly cloudy skies and breezy as well.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Recent runs of the HRRR have been dwindling the snow total for the CR/IC area.  It's down to <1" now.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Band W of DSM moving along I-80 is snow... most radars are showing it as rain/mix but it's all snow, Maybe a few more tenths before a true change to rain but taking it all in right now. image.png.23a6b77f37c30ff53777b979d8b50f50.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3k NAM has gone much weaker with the precip in general over the next 24 hours across Iowa, including a much-diminished snow area over ne/ec Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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