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November 2020 Observations and Discussion


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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I'm ready.. but have plans to spend the afternoon over in SEMI, lol. If not, I'd likely be heading over to the big lake to see some of the best gusts/wave action expected there.

 

Always fun to see the first flakes of the season flying and perhaps a dusting here and there. Kinda gets you ready for the holidays, even though, this year, it will be weird w covid around.

Btw: make sure you yell out "Nikoooooooooooo" as you are driving by SEMI! 😉❄️

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Crazy to think that just a week ago we were in the 70's all week! This turned out to be quite the ice storm to say the least. Ice accretion is around .5-.75" and trees are breaking like match sticks.

Came to West Virginia last week and have been here since. I’ve been lucky to have a lot of time off with Covid. It’s easily the most beautiful place I’ve ever been. Too bad the storm wiped most of the

Beginning to look like Christmas in the Northwoods 😉 3.5" down today after calling for snow showers.

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13 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Three straight windows open days next week.

 

In terms of likeable but extremely variable weather, this autumn has hit 10/10 for every enjoyable type I could imagine except one. 

......heavy snow or snow in general.

I cannot complain one bit though. Not one. 

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Welcome to November!  As we all "fall back" an hour, models coming in an hour earlier.  It's that time of year again...cheers!  

 

Like Clinton mentioned the other day, this Autumn season has been filled with windy days.  Yesterday, I was outside most of the day doing yard work and cleaning up dead plants.  I'll leave the leaf raking for Monday's job as today the winds are supposed to gust even higher than yesterday.  The cold temps from the night before really helped in turning more color and leafs were flying off yesterday.  The tree's in my back yard are about 75% bare.  Should be one of the earliest seasons in recent memory where the trees are bare by mid November at this rate.  Meantime, the powerful CF has made its way through and temps are beginning to tank.  It's going to be a cold and blustery Sunday...hang onto your hats!

 

Big rise in the SOI, no surprise a big ridge across the Eastern CONUS in the extended...

SOI Dashboard

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values


SOI values for 1 Nov, 2020
Average SOI for last 30 days 4.19
Average SOI for last 90 days 8.16
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 28.76

 

 

 

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Good Sunday morning.  The GFS has been trending stronger and colder with our next system and could there be another tropical influence on this storm?  As the models begin to digest the blocking this system could explode and be our first share the wealth storm of the season.

sn10_acc.conus.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

1605139200-FjWNWHrCM5k.png

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While this in mostly a recap of October I will post it here and also in the October section.

For better or worse welcome to November. October 2020 at Grand Rapids had a mean temperature of 47.8 that was a departure of -3.2. The high for the month was 79 on the 9th and the low was 25 on the 31st there was a trace of reported snow fall. This was the coldest October since 2006. At Muskegon they had a mean of 49.9 that was a departure there of -0.8 the highest was 75 on the 9th and the low was 29 on the 31st. and they also reported a trace of snow fall. At Holland they had a mean of 47.9 and that was good for a departure of 3.7. The highest at Holland in October was 77 on the 9th and the low was 29 on the 31st. And to the east at Lansing the mean there was 47.5 for a departure of -2.8 the highest there was 78 on the 9th and the low was 25 on the 31st There was no snow fall reported at Lansing in October. At this time it is windy and there is some light snow and leaves falling here at my house with a temperature of 38.

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The warmup begins today. 18.7*F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Well I am now getting the first lake effect snow shower of the 2020/21 season here as moderate snow is falling along with a lot of leaves. The temperature is now at 36. While the snow is not staying on the ground it has now turned the roofs white for now.

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Headed down to Omaha on Thursday and then KC. Gonna enjoy some upper 60s and low 70s for a few days before reality strikes again. Road trippin’ with the wife for a few days to get out of the house. Weather looks perfect for the drive. 

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17 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Headed down to Omaha on Thursday and then KC. Gonna enjoy some upper 60s and low 70s for a few days before reality strikes again. Road trippin’ with the wife for a few days to get out of the house. Weather looks perfect for the drive. 

Perfect timing weather wise...have fun and be safe!  I'll be traveling myself and flying to AZ tomorrow and prob stay through end of November.  I still have to finish up yard work and raking the leaves before I take off.  Enjoy the warmer temps as I'll be doing the same!

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Exactly 2 wks after I posted this Obs from MQT, we here in Marshall have joined the (winter) club. Had to run up to the mkt and boy were huge flakes flying as I walked out. 1st class squalls on/off this late morning. Can clearly see when the secondary CF came thru and dropped temps at the airport 7 deg's in 20 mins. 21F WC. It's a very raw November 1st out there! Looks like another line of squalls knocking on the door per radar loop.

 

20201017 NWS Marquette Obs 1 pm.PNG

20201101 NWS Marshall Obs 11 am.PNG

20201101 8 am 2ndry CF.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Exactly 2 wks after I posted this Obs from MQT, we here in Marshall have joined the (winter) club. Had to run up to the mkt and boy were huge flakes flying as I walked out. 1st class squalls on/off this late morning. Can clearly see when the secondary CF came thru and dropped temps at the airport 7 deg's in 20 mins. 21F WC. It's a very raw November 1st out there! Looks like another line of squalls knocking on the door per radar loop.

 

20201017 NWS Marquette Obs 1 pm.PNG

20201101 NWS Marshall Obs 11 am.PNG

20201101 8 am 2ndry CF.PNG

Enjoy bud....and plenty more to come.❄️

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Second week of November, temps go back to normal and then BN, especially, 3rd and final week. This is perfect and that is what I wanted for November. Nothing extreme, in terms of snowfall, or frigid temps. Just flurries and a dusting here and there to get you in the holiday spirit.

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ETA has been formed.......

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/page-2.jpg?w=475

Note:

Nearly one month is left in the already record-setting 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on Nov. 30. Eta has become the 28th named tropical storm of the season -- tying 2005's record of 28 systems in one year. This is also the first time Eta has ever been used in the Atlantic basin.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been ratcheting through the Greek alphabet -- for only the second time in history -- to name tropical systems once the designated list for 2020 was exhausted. 2005 was the only other year to use Greek letters, and Zeta was last on the list for that notorious season.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

That was quite the GFS run (12z)

I thought it might go in that direction and it absorbs yet another tropical system man this has the potential to be a very big storm for November can we get a blizzard maybe.

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
342 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

MIZ047-048-053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-021000-
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-
Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
342 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A wind advisory is in effect this afternoon and evening. In addition
to gusty winds, scattered to numerous snow showers are expected
today. These snow showers may briefly become heavy, resulting in a
dusting of snow on unpaved surfaces.

Note: It feels like December out there.....temp currently at 34F and dropping into the 20s throughout the day w snowshowers around.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, I see JB on WxBell updated his Winter thoughts.  Can you elaborate on here what he is thinking now?

He says no forecast changes since last month.  He mentions the Pioneer and CFSv2SST supports a colder forecast. Mentioned analog years of 1983-84, 1995-96, 2017-18 were heavy hitters in terms of snowfall that had this kind of support from the CFS.

"Such a pattern could produce a lot of snow, especially since the precipitation in the analog patterns shows plenty of above-normal amounts and even some intersecting of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. While not etched in stone, simply above normal precipitation implies, even in warm winters, one or two storms that can sneak in and provide significant snowfalls (example 2016)."

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2 hours ago, james1976 said:

Haha wow

gfs_asnow_us_41.png

pretty map!

 

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >= 3":  none                       Season total: 0.6"
  • 19-20 snowfalls >= 3":  Dec 15/16: 4.5"      Season total: 11.7" (66% of normal 17.8")
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8 hours ago, Jaycee said:

Came to West Virginia last week and have been here since. I’ve been lucky to have a lot of time off with Covid. It’s easily the most beautiful place I’ve ever been. Too bad the storm wiped most of the leaves but I was able to get glimpses of it atleast! 

1F2C8C7F-D740-4FE7-AE44-8712072353FD.jpeg

 

 

D6F08C61-E6DA-477C-99B5-D5061DDC5C6A.jpeg

F3AFB29C-FDF0-489E-8E9A-6E980AD5C947.jpeg

Truly beautiful.

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8 hours ago, Clinton said:

I thought it might go in that direction and it absorbs yet another tropical system man this has the potential to be a very big storm for November can we get a blizzard maybe.

Yeah, that 12z run was a mega-tease for your location. 18z moves it further NW. Looks healthy but it's a long ways out. Still, better than the big fat zero on that map for these parts, lol.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Came home from my sister's place in SEMI to find the 1st smattering of snow on my deck. The airport unit reported (6) squalls between 10:15 and the next 6 hrs. If they had happened simultaneously, it may have added up to something measurable. As it is, I could only give it a "T" for the day (which I don't record tbh). Still, I ran into a couple serious squalls east of here and watched my car thermo drop from 36F to 30F and the hvy SHSN blowing across the pavement made it look just like a real winter's day for a few miles anyhow. Winds were stout as well. Looks like Frankfort exceeded their forecast with a peak gust at 58 mph. Around here was more in the 35-40 mph range. I did see some reports of 60 mph near Holland/Grand Haven along the coast even from early this morning. This thing set in quickly. 

Now we go back to tranquility pattern and since we miss out on the Plains action, it may be a full 9-10 day wait for anything as exciting as today's wx. LR GFS has a couple systems in the d10-15 range that could be wound-up wind makers here similar to today.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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8 hours ago, Clinton said:

He says no forecast changes since last month.  He mentions the Pioneer and CFSv2SST supports a colder forecast. Mentioned analog years of 1983-84, 1995-96, 2017-18 were heavy hitters in terms of snowfall that had this kind of support from the CFS.

"Such a pattern could produce a lot of snow, especially since the precipitation in the analog patterns shows plenty of above-normal amounts and even some intersecting of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. While not etched in stone, simply above normal precipitation implies, even in warm winters, one or two storms that can sneak in and provide significant snowfalls (example 2016)."

Pencil me a little confused buddy, but I have that text (quoted) as being from his early October update, the one with all the maps dated 9/30/20.

You certain there's nothing newer?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Today, marks the 1st official hard freeze for the city proper as temps finally have dipped into the upper 20's along the lake shore.  It's nice to check that stat off the books.  

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Looking out into the extended, if you like extended Indian Summer weather, the LR clue I'm seeing for the eastern CONUS is your friend.  I think we will see an extended period of troughs targeting the western NAMER coastline based off of one of the LR clues I'm seeing.  It appears there may be a raging PAC jet targeting the west coast.  Next weeks cool down across the Sub could be brief and flip back to an extended ridge-like pattern.  The warmer anomalies showing up at both 10mb/30mb over the entire central/eastern CONUS from mid Oct towards the end of the run translate to a ridge by Week 2.  This pattern may in fact last into the Thanksgiving holiday.  Last weeks Euro weeklies showed this so I'm curious to see what it has to say in today's run.

 

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

Not only that, but the PV is forecast to relocate on the other side of the Pole in Eurasia in the extended....

gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

 

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Pencil me a little confused buddy, but I have that text (quoted) as being from his early October update, the one with all the maps dated 9/30/20.

You certain there's nothing newer?

Nothing that I saw bud.

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Well we had the first widespread snow fall of the season here yesterday.  Here at my house there were several periods of snow and snow mixed with hail. And yes it was windy. The overnight low here was 24.1 but  it looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 27. At this time it is partly cloudy and 32 here at my house.

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^ Does that white over my place in those model maps mean lots and lots of snow? 🤔

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Sunny skies currently w temps in the 20s. Had a light dusting of snow yesterday, which was perfect to set the mood up for the holidays. Mainly rooftops, grassy surfaces and etc.

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GFS would be an ice to rain event in Eastern Nebraska. Yuck. I'll take the moisture though. It's still very early in the season so a Dakota cutter would be no surprise. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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18 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Have been really busy today and just saw the 12Z GFS.  My gosh.  What a storm that would be for my region.  Would take all the moisture we could get from this monster if it verified.

12Z GFS Nov. 2.png

 

33 degree raging thunderstorms in 2013-14 traumatized me back in Memphis, but I'll take it at this point. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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