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November 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Crazy to think that just a week ago we were in the 70's all week! This turned out to be quite the ice storm to say the least. Ice accretion is around .5-.75" and trees are breaking like match sticks.

Came to West Virginia last week and have been here since. I’ve been lucky to have a lot of time off with Covid. It’s easily the most beautiful place I’ve ever been. Too bad the storm wiped most of the

1.41” of rain/freezing rain here so far. Crazy how much of a difference one or maybe two degrees make.  looking at my weather station, the temperature was between 31.6-32.2 all night long while we’v

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3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

gfs_asnow_us_39.png

TT maps are always fun with mixed precip situations lmao. Translation: around 3" of sleet in Lincoln. That would be a LOT of sleet. Should be an interesting system to watch. GFS is still flip flopping and Euro is much weaker I believe. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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EPS/GEFS look promising for the eastern half of Neb, IA, KS, and MO for a good moisture hit. I would think snow is more likely heading west towards Holdrege. GEFS favors C NE into SD, EPS has no clear or strong axis, just a wide area of 1-2" 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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This forecast is a nice turn around for the time being.  I will change my tune if some average temps don't return within a couple weeks.

Its funny how October cold and snow just never has the legs to last far into November.  By the numbers, my backyard should in theory be capable of holding onto snow from October to the rest of winter with some below normal temps from Nov 1-15.  But, the pattern that gives snowfall in October never seems to have the legs to make it through the first half of Nov.     

Capture1102.JPG

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6 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

GFS would be an ice to rain event in Eastern Nebraska. Yuck. I'll take the moisture though. It's still very early in the season so a Dakota cutter would be no surprise. 

Even MN gets rain w this i think, but......still plenty of time for changes in regards to your area.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Currently 43F under clear skies. Temps dropping into the 30s tanite and the rest of the week and into the weekend looks marvelous. As a matter a fact, it looks awesome till early next week. Sunshine and nothing but sunshine w temps in the 60s. Someone could hit 70F or better.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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7 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Crazy....

gfs_asnow_us_35.png

Crazy thermal problems I’m thinking. Regardless double barrel lows equal big swings in models. Although pretty crazy how all models are showing both storms rounding the base of the trough in some shape or form. Regardless love seeing this pattern setting up! 

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17 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Crazy thermal problems I’m thinking. Regardless double barrel lows equal big swings in models. Although pretty crazy how all models are showing both storms rounding the base of the trough in some shape or form. Regardless love seeing this pattern setting up! 

Yeah I could see a lot of ice and/or sleet somewhere. 

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Rhymes with Alaska, and known to the lumberjacks as "the Klondike region", this place anchors the SW corner of the triangle of max avg snowfall in the Lwr Peninsula of Michigan.

Not bad on a forecast of 2-5"

Quote

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
209 PM EST MON NOV 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     SNOW             2 ENE SHARON            44.59N 85.05W
11/02/2020  M6.9 INCH        KALKASKA           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL. CO-OP OBSERVER STATION KSEM4 KALKASKA 11 SE.

 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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10 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Edmund Fitzgerald Nov. 9th '76. Looks like a heck of a storm Nov 9th 10th.

Was just listening to the song on my way home from work tonight. It always seems more relevant and meaningful this time of year.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Devastating ice storm on the GFS. Tropical Tidbits is wrong on the snowfall accumulation based on soundings in the area.

I prefer Pivotal for precip types.

DF5486DB-B682-4B22-A0C3-E8D6F17BCF10.jpeg

Electricty is overrated anyways. In all seriousness, that's the last way I'd want to recieve 3" of QPF. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Ice storms suuuuuuuuuck

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Hello from Fountain Hills Arizona!  Daylight is emerging as  sunrise here is at 6:49am.  The beautiful glow from sunrises out here in the desert SW are something else.  It's a very comfortable 70F with a calm wind and we are heading up into the low 90's today and for most of the work week before big changes.  Meantime, get out and vote today on Election Day!

 

Edit: Forgot to send this message a bit ago as I had to take care of something...

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Already up to 45.5*F here. Yet another day in the 60s. Every day will be in the 60s here until this weekend.

If you want to discuss the election, we have a discussion happening over in the everything else subforum with plenty of people on both sides. Just be smart about it if you choose to post there.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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36 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Destroying the forecast high of 68. Already at 72.

Same here. 4F above grid-casted 59F. Analogs called for a warm November. Might last into Dec here at least.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Reached at least 70 here today.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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NWS Hastings disco:

Following a week of warmth, cold air advects south behind the front early next week, bringing an abrupt change in temperatures. Instead of readings 20 degrees above normal, highs heading into Tuesday are expected to average 20 degrees below normal (30s). If a closed low develops in the southern extent of the upper trough...the potential exists for a winter weather/snow event Tuesday/Tuesday night as this system crosses our region. Details of this system will become more clear in upcoming days as the system nears, so be sure to monitor forecasts for updates.

 

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New record high of 71 set here today. I had my windows open, it was actually refreshing.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Hurricane ETA has its eyes on Cuba and then potentially Florida down the road. As HP weakens in the GOM and moves away, it will allow ETA to make a right sharp turn and head for Cuba. The US has to monitor this closely going forward. Currently at 130mph, gusts to 165.

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/cropped-Screen-Shot-2020-11-03-at-3.29.01-PM.png?w=475

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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10 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Already up to 45.5*F here. Yet another day in the 60s. Every day will be in the 60s here until this weekend.

If you want to discuss the election, we have a discussion happening over in the everything else subforum with plenty of people on both sides. Just be smart about it if you choose to post there.

Why?

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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11 minutes ago, Niko said:

Why?

No brainless blindly partisan political bashing and insult hurling.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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8 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

No brainless blindly partisan political bashing and insult hurling.

Yes, I agree. That should not be tolerated at all! I have a feeling there will be one or 2 loud mouths.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Indian Summer back home in Chicago looks superb!

 

Image

 

Boy, it sure was nice to soak up some vitamin D at the pool yesterday.  Something that stood out though, were the longer shadows being cast by the sun's lower angle in the sky.  The sun sets noticeably earlier now compared to when I was here just a little over a month ago (5:33pm).  PHX may break a record high tomorrow with a forecast temp of 97F.

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At this time there is a very big difference between the current temperature here at my house and the official reading at the airport. With clear skies I now have a reading of 40 after a over night low of 39 while the official readings at GRR is 49 after a overnight low of 44.

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